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Wide receiver A.J. Green signed as a free agent with the Arizona Cardinals in the 2021 offseason. Jason Katz evaluates the fantasy football impact of this move and Green's early draft value at WR.
It seems strange that the Cardinals, who already have one old wide receiver in Larry Fitzgerald, would bring in another in A.J. Green. The notion of Fitz, Green, and DeAndre Hopkins all part of the same wide receiver corps is pretty awesome given their names and their all-time stature, but also less exciting when you realize it's 2021 and not 2015.
For those of us that have been playing fantasy football for a long time, we've seen A.J. Green's entire career and know the elite talent he once was. The key word in that sentence: was. While some receivers age with grace, resulting in a steady decline while maintaining usefulness (think Emmanuel Sanders), others fall off a cliff immediately (think Sanders' former teammate, Demaryius Thomas).
Which category does Green fall into? I think you know where this is headed but let's determine if the move to Arizona's Air Raid system can provide fantasy value in 2021.
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The Grass is No Longer Green
Heading into the 2020 season, there was little reason to think A.J. Green had much, if anything, left in the tank. Given that he hadn't played a full season since 2017, there was at least an argument to be made that the ability was still there if he could stay healthy. Then, 2020 happened and I can safely say: A.J. Green is done.
Green played in all 16 games in 2020. He finished as a fantasy WR1 zero times. He finished as WR2 twice. He had three games between 5-10 fantasy points. He had two games under five fantasy points. And, worst of all (not included in the preceding stat), Green had a whopping five games with zero fantasy points. At no point in 2020 did he belong on a fantasy roster.
Amongst wide receivers with at least 50 targets in 2020, Green finished dead last in yards per target at 5.0. If J.J. Arcega-Whiteside didn't exist, there would be a legitimate argument that Green was the worst wide receiver in the NFL last season. Green caught a career-low 45.2% of his 104 targets for a career-low 523 yards. Yes, he was worse in total yards in 2020 than he was in 2018 when he played just nine games.
Impact on Cardinals Wide Receivers
In Arizona, Green will likely be a part-time player on the outside opposite DeAndre Hopkins, pushing Christian Kirk to the slot. This could actually benefit Kirk, assuming he doesn't split time with Fitz, as Kirk is a natural slot receiver dating back to his college days, but after averaging just 10.5 ppg last season, Kirk is nothing more than a dart throw WR5 heading into 2021.
Fitz's role, whatever it may be, is unaffected by the addition of Green, who ran just 14.7% of his routes from the slot last season. Fitz has little to no fantasy value with or without Green.
There are those in the fantasy community that continue to believe in Andy Isabella. Allow me to rid you of those demons. While he has blazing speed, Andy Isabella is not good at football and the Cardinals know it. If Isabella had any sort of real ability, he would've played as a rookie. If Isabella had any sort of real ability, he would've played more than 37.3% of the snaps as a sophomore. If Isabella had any sort of real ability, the Cardinals wouldn't feel the need to sign a washed-up 33-year-old A.J. Green, who, along with 38-year-old Larry Fitzgerald, will undoubtedly join DHop and Kirk in playing ahead of Isabella. And if Fitz doesn't come back, KeeSean Johnson is still ahead of Isabella as evidenced by the fact that he out-snapped Isabella last year as well. There's a nonzero chance Isabella gets cut.
I would be remiss not to discuss DeAndre Hopkins separately, but this move has zero impact on Hopkins. He is a true alpha WR1 and in the small elite group of receivers that are immune to target competition.
Impact on Kyler Murray
The addition of A.J. Green certainly doesn't help Kyler Murray. Having Green on the field over literally any other wide receiver is a net negative. At the same time, NFL coaches aren't always the brightest of the bunch, so it's possible they commit more attention to the future Hall of Famer than they should, which would at least open up the field a bit for the rest of the offense. In all likelihood, Green plays so poorly that his snaps get severely reduced as the season goes on and Murray is largely unaffected. I'm certainly not downgrading him at all over this.
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