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After the performances of Tom Brady and Drew Brees last season, it’s hard to make an argument that they are anything but elite heading into 2017. However, seemingly every season we see an older player at the position fall from elite to mediocre or mediocre to irrelevant. In fact, there is quite a history of such occurrences in fantasy football.
Looking back, Donovan McNabb fell from 20.8 points per game in 2009, his age 32 season, to 18.5 in 2010. More recently, we have seen Peyton Manning and Tony Romo each fall off in their mid to late 30s. Manning especially posted elite fantasy numbers in 2013 and 2014 only to completely fall out of fantasy relevance due to loss of arm strength. Romo’s fall can be attributed to his inability to stay on the field, but prior to 2015, Romo had played in 15 or more games for four consecutive seasons.That said while Brady and Brees look invincible, there is precedent of precipitous falls from quarterbacks in their mid to late 30s.
This article will dig into the performances of Tom Brady and Drew Brees as well as a few young rising stars at the quarterback position who are poised to challenge Brees and Brady for elite fantasy status.
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Why Tom Brady Why Will Fall in 2017
Regression to Career Norms
There’s no denying Tom Brady’s amazing track record as an NFL player, but that hasn’t always translated to fantasy football. For example, while Brady finished as the fifth fantasy quarterback in points per game in 2016, second in 2015, and third in 2012, also mixed in were his 14th ranked season in 2014 and 19th in 2013.
Brady was incredibly efficient last season; so efficient in fact, that regression is almost certain. This isn’t just blindly saying Brady can’t be as good as he was last year but is instead based on the norms he has set for himself throughout his career. For example, Brady posted his highest yards per attempt mark since 2011 last season, his highest adjusted yards per attempt since 2007, and his highest TD% since 2010. That said, his skills don’t need to erode, as they did for Manning in 2016, for him to be worse than he was last season.
Offensive Philosophy
If that loss of efficiency occurs, volume cannot be counted on to save Brady’s fantasy season. Last season, the Patriots as a team attempted just 36.5 passing attempts per game. While it would be reasonable to expect that the Patriots less with the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett, that wasn’t the case as Brady averaged just 36 attempts after returning from suspension. With the offseason additions of Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee, it doesn’t appear that the Patriots feel the need to change the trajectory of their offense.
Conclusion
The path to Brady not having an elite season is much easier to find than would be expected given how easily he and the Patriots marched through NFL defenses last season. While it is quite possible that he will repeat those heroics, his own career norms suggest that won’t be the case and given the way the Patriots offense has been built, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Brady end the season as a mid or bottom tier QB 1 rather than atop the ranks.
Why Drew Brees Will Fall in 2017
The case for a fall in form from Brees is a bit more difficult to make based on his career numbers, but the Saints offense will look different this season than last. Most notably, the Saints traded away Brandin Cooks, a big play specialist, and also added Adrian Peterson via free agency and Alvin Kamara via the draft. While Peterson is a more traditional power back, Kamara has been compared to Darren Sproles or Reggie Bush who were used mostly to supplement the Saints’ passing attack. Thus, unlike Brady, even with these offseason moves, the Saints likely won’t move away from being one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league. They will focus more on the run than in the last few years, so Brees' attempts could drop down to the lower 600s, which is still absurdly high for any QB.
Instead, there would need to be an unexpected drop in performance from Brees. The first is age. As profiled in the introduction, older quarterbacks have fallen off with little to no warning thanks to either injury or depressed skills. Peyton Manning offers an illustration of everything looking fine, even elite, one season only to completely fall off the next. Prior to averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game in 2015, Manning finished fourth and first in points per game among quarterbacks in 2014 and 2013 respectively. His metrics also offered little evidence that a collapse was imminent, given that his touchdown rate, yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempts, and completion percent were all either at or above his career rates.
Conclusion
Drew Brees doesn’t have the same red flags of a drop off in 2017 that Tom Brady does. However, he is at an age where elite quarterbacks can falter with little to no warning. In Brees’ case, it will likely take a big jump in level of play from Carr, Winston, and Mariota for him to be surpassed.
The Case for Derek Carr as an Elite QB
His Career Path
Of the three young quarterbacks discussed in this article, Carr has had the best chance for fantasy superstardom thanks to two excellent receivers and a relatively high number of pass plays per game. With the step forward the Raiders took as a team last year, there has been speculation that the team should and will rely on Carr more as their young leader. That change, in theory, should him take a step forward as a fantasy producer. Carr’s metrics stagnated for the most part last year, but if he is able to make the offense more to his comfort, that should change.
His Receivers
If in fact Carr does take over more responsibility in shaping the Raiders’ offense, it is reasonable to predict that Amari Cooper will take a step forward. While Cooper is unanimously labeled as the Raiders’ number one option in the receiving game, Michael Crabtree has out-targeted him in his first two seasons. There is no denying that Cooper is the more dynamic of the two receivers and getting the ball in his hands more will open the offense up with the chance for more dynamic plays. This isn’t to completely discount Crabtree as he has proven to be a steady target in the passing game, just not dynamic to the same degree as Cooper. Regardless, Cooper and Crabtree should combine to be one of the better wide receiver duos in the league, which will continue to work to the benefit of Carr.
Conclusion
Carr needs his volume to remain steady, which seems likely given the doubts that must surround Marshawn Lynch. His efficiency will need to bounce back and that seems most likely to be linked to his development with Amari Cooper. Of the three young quarterbacks profiled here, Carr has the least compelling case to make a big jump to fantasy stardom this season.
The Case for Marcus Mariota as an Elite QB
Efficiency
Mariota took a nice step forward in two important QB metrics last season as both his adjusted yards per attempt and touchdown percentage improved. It is important that he continues to grow in this regard as he plays for an offense that is likely to continue to emphasize the run, meaning he will have to make up for lesser volume. Being efficient should be easier for Mariota this season as well with the addition of Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor, and Jonnu Smith in the draft. These additions also send the signal that the Titans know what they have in Mariota and want to surround him with talent that will allow him to succeed. Given both these additions and Mariota’s natural progression as a quarterback should allow him to take another step forward.
Rushing Ability
Mariota also has one clear advantage over every other quarterback profiled in this article: his rushing ability. His return from a fractured fibula, which occurred on December 24, clouds his production in this regard but it is unlikely he stops running altogether. Assuming he is healthy he will have a 50 point advantage over the likes of Brees and Brady.
Conclusion
Just how much of a chance Mariota has to surpass the middle tier of fantasy quarterbacks and jump up with the elites has to do with his health entering the season. If he is healthy and running he has the best chance of the trio to make the jump, but that prediction may well be a year early.
The Case for Jameis Winston as an Elite QB
Ownership of the Offense
Though the argument for Winston is similar to that of Carr, it has to be stated in stronger terms for Winston. The Buccaneers shifted much more of the focus of their offense to the passing game as their pass percentage went from 55.32% in 2015 to 57.5% in 2016. In addition, the percentage of total offensive yards accounted for by the passing game jumped from 64.08% in 2015 to 70.84% in 2016. Given the muddled situation at running back for the Buccaneers and the additional options the Buccaneers have surrounded Winston with in the offseason, this offensive shift should be expected to continue.
Speaking of targets, though Jameis Winston was never able to play with Vincent Jackson at the height of his career, Jackson was still able to do enough to open up the field in Winston’s rookie season of 2015. That season, Jackson posted 13 receptions of 20 yards or more . In contrast, in 2016, only Mike Evans posted double-digit 20+ yard receptions. Given that, it’s little surprise that Winston’s efficiency fell in 2016. However, DeSean Jackson will provide an even better version of Vincent Jackson in the 2017 season. This should open the offense back up and create better efficiency again for Winston.
Conclusion
Winston has the pieces to become an elite fantasy quarterback and also comes with relatively low risk. Drafted 40 to 50 picks after Brees and Brady, Winston certainly is a great value but he will need DeSean Jackson to open up the offense to surpass the mainstays at the position.
