RADIO
Mike's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks for LPL & LCK on 3/11/22. His top LoL value plays and eSports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! Another five-game slate to break down features a few large favorites and the underdogs aren't super appealing on this one in my opinion. ON is back in the starting lineup over Swordart, and the LCK lineups tomorrow should be the same that they've been running out recently. We've got to choose our spots tomorrow with restrictive pricing, so let's get right into this slate!
As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) In this case, we might not get LCK lineups before the 2:00 AM lock, so we are going to try and project starters based on recent lineups. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM EST on Friday, March 11th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: T1(-512) vs. KDF (+374)
We might not get starting lineups before lock for this LCK match, but the starters SHOULD be: Zeus/Oner/Faker/Gumayusi/Keria for T1, and Kiin/Ellim/Fate/Teddy/Hoit for KDF. This match should be a good one to watch, as the still undefeated T1 is up against the former T1 members in Teddy and Ellim. It's always hard to pick against T1, as they are probably the best team in the world at the moment, but KDF has shown drastic improvement since the start of the split. The last time these two met early in the split T1 swept them. KDF looks like a much stronger and more cohesive team since then, but a loss here still has KDF making the playoffs and a game lead over KT in the playoff race. KDF is coming off a 2-0 loss to DK.
T1 continues to put up great numbers in their sweeps and is usually an optimal secondary stack if not an optimal primary stack. The matchup definitely favors T1 here but is interesting because both teams set up their bot lanes to carry them. Teddy and Gumayusi shared time on the rift last year, and I'm sure Teddy would love to take down his old squad with the help of Ellim. Gumayusi and Keria are my main focus here from T1, but we have seen them falter a couple of times in lane phase to then bounce back in the team fighting stages in the mid to late game. I think the X factor in this series will be Oner, as he is a top-two jungler in the LCK, while Ellim has had an average split in my eyes. Oner and Keria as a small stack would be my primary focus here, with Gumayusi mixed in there too. I won't be getting to any KDF tonight.
Top T1 plays: Oner, Gumayusi, Keria, Faker
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5:00 AM: NS (+255) vs. DK (-328)
For this LCK match, we should see Canna/Dread/Bdd/Ghost/Effort? and Burdol/Canyon/Showmaker/Deokdam/Kellin for DK. DK is locked into playoffs, while NS is fighting desperately for the sixth seed. If T1 wins tomorrow and NS also wins, that definitely helps out their chances. NS has had a rough year with multiple roster iterations as they were perhaps the team hit hardest by Covid. It's unfortunate to see because at the beginning of the split I was confident they would be a playoff team. That may not be the case if they drop this series tomorrow. DK is coming off a close three-game series loss vs GEN, where DK's bot lane was outclassed and GEN didn't even have Chovy. NS won this series 2-1 when they last faced off, which was also pretty early in the split. NS rides a three-game losing streak coming into this one.
I am not confident in this NS team at the moment. Even when they have a draft advantage they are still finding ways to lose, and are much worse in the early game and mid/late game than DK. DK will grind out a victory here most likely in two games, so they may be my favorite TEAM slot play of the slate tomorrow. I have very little confidence in NS here, but perhaps DK try something new in the draft that can result in NS taking a game or even the series. I don't like that angle though, as DK is still the much smarter team around the map, and has the stronger laners in this matchup. I expect a bounce-back performance from Deokdam and Kellin, as they struggled the last series vs Ruler and Lehends, and have a friendlier matchup here vs Ghost and Effort. I don't see DK being a high-scoring stack tomorrow, and though recently their scores have been nice, I would rather target the T1 match and two of the LPL matches over this one. DK may play with their food a bit considering they've locked in playoffs, but most likely they just get in and get out.
Top DK plays: Deokdam, Showmaker, TEAM, Canyon, Kellin
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: JDG (-753) vs. TT (+513)
We head over to the LPL were fifth place JDG, can surpass TES for fourth place if TES loses tomorrow, faces off against the playoffs eliminated TT. JDG plays an aggressive and high pace style of league that is sometimes very volatile, but as the season has gone on they have proven to be one of the best teams at running away with the game if they do find an early lead. They snowball games very effectively. 369's aggressive playstyle absorbs early jungle pressure in the top lane, while Hope and Missing comfortably get through laning phase and set up the team for victory in the mid to late-game team fights. However, TT is not as bad as their record looks, since Ucal and Chieftain subbed in, and may play looser since they are more just playing for pride and spoiler than to make playoffs.
I think the odds are a little heavy in favor of JDG considering stylistically how they play, so TT is in play for large field GPPs. Their games can get pretty bloody, and I feel you need a part of this game on the slate tomorrow. I will have much more JDG than TT though, and as expensive as they are, this should be a sweep for JDG. Again, maybe TT brings more aggression in this match since they don't have anything to play for, and maybe JDG plays a bit more disrespectful than usual considering this is a bottom-tier team. If that's the case, JDG could score VERY well if the games end up more back and forth than it should be. I definitely can see that being a possibility, which is why JDG is a staple for me in GPPs and cash. Kanavi is my favorite jungler on the entire slate tomorrow, and I will be getting to a good amount of jungle captains tomorrow. 369 captain is also in play, as he has a VERY favorable matchup against arguably the worst LPL starter in the league in New. JDG is very expensive though, which is why you have to get creative with how to build them.
Top JDG plays: Kanavi, 369, Hope, Missing
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4:00 AM: UP (+198) vs. RA (-248)
This matchup features the ninth-place RA against the twelfth-place UP. Both these teams need a win here to drastically improve their chances at securing a playoff spot. We know UP is a team that relies on getting resources and attention to Elk so he can carry, while RA seems to have been finding their mid/jungle synergy as the split goes on, while also being able to rely on Iboy at times to carry too. RA is the middle of the pack in GSPD% (average gold spent percentage difference), while UP sits in the bottom four in the same category. RA has had a full six days to prepare for this match, while UP has only had three.
I think this match is somewhat more of a coin flip than the odds suggest, so both teams are in play here. I prefer the RA side, as I believe they have the better jungler and mid laner. This will come down to the draft, as both mid laners have very similar champion pools, and play a similar style. Mid-lane is the critical matchup here, which is why I prefer RA, whose mid-lane is backed by the better jungler in Leyan. Leyan has been having a great split in my eyes, while H4cker has been underwhelming as usual. UP plays at a faster pace than most teams and isn't afraid to skirmish in the early game. RA is typically not as aggressive, so if they opt into these faster-paced games then UP may be able to come out on top here. I just think RA has improved as the split has gone on, while UP continues to coin flip their games and hope they can fight their way out of a deficit. RA is the better macro team and the smarter team in my eyes, which is why I'm backing them and like them as a small stack for value tomorrow.
Top RA plays: Leyan, Strive, Iboy
6:00 AM: WBG (-115) vs. TES (-105)
The 6 AM early morning hammer features the surging fourth place TES, winners of six straight series, and the second place WBG. What interests me here is how unconvincing the TES streak has been. Whether it's EDG throwing a huge lead in game three, or LNG drafting like absolute trash (Viego top is so bad and did absolutely nothing, seems like LNG was just trying to deny Tian his best champ) I am not convinced this TES squad should be fourth at the moment. Yes, TES has improved with this new roster iteration, and yes WBG has looked the shakiest they have all split, but I think TES will drop this series tomorrow. TES game record is 17-15(53% win rate) and has SIX teams below them with an equal or higher game win rate. TES is frequently getting into three-game series, and it's very possible this happens again tomorrow.
WBG is my preferred side here, and they are cheap to roster as well. I believe this one does go three games, so I like getting to one-offs of WBG here, preferably TheShy and Huanfeng. WBG as a primary stack is also in play, as they can put up some solid scores in a sweep here, that can help you fit in JDG as well. WBG is just the better team in my eyes, although TES is definitely in play for GPPs. Give me another favorite to win here on this slate.
Top WBG plays: TheShy, Huanfeng, Angel, Sofm
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be loading up on JDG, RA, T1, and WBG tomorrow. I will be prioritizing JDG and T1 for my full stacks, with RA and WBG for value. I am not too confident in any of the underdogs tomorrow, which does slightly scare me but I'm riding the favorites wave tomorrow. TES and UP are probably the two underdogs to target in GPPs. TT has slate-breaking upside if they pull off the upset. DK looks to be the fade of the night here, but I love their TEAM slot play tomorrow.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are JDG/RA with Theshy one-off, T1/WBG, and WBG/JDG. JDG is a priority for me tomorrow and is hard to fit with other favorites so you have to get creative, preferably with Kanavi captain. RA full stacks are a good look too in GPPs to help fit JDG.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, I like JDG with RA with a Theshy one off too, and even getting to TOP captains are in play. T1 with WBG is a way to get different, but I think you need some JDG in cash.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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