RADIO
Last week, the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series season started, with Austin Hill winning in his debut for Richard Childress Racing. Meanwhile, 11 drivers were officially marked down as DNFs with the "crash" label on Racing Reference, which helps illustrate how wild that race got.
Now, we head to the 2.0-mile Auto Club Speedway for a race that should be a little more tame. Like will be the case for much of this season, qualifying happening on race day means we'll be publishing this initial piece as more of an overview of the race, but check back pre-race for some post-qualifying updates.
Here at RotoBaller, we want to help you make informed decisions about your DFS lineups, which is why I'll be breaking down the slates for the Xfinity Series. Let's look at some NASCAR Xfinity DFS lineup picks for the Production Alliance Group 300 on DraftKings. Be sure to also check out our NASCAR Premium Tools for Xfinity Series including our DFS Lineup Optimizer and powerful Research Station.
Xfinity DFS Preview - DraftKings
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Post-Qualifying Twitter Update Thread
Check back here before Saturday's race, where I'll be linking to a Twitter thread of some post-qualifying thoughts.
UPDATE: here are those thoughts.
How The Top-Priced Drivers Have Done At Auto Club
There are five drivers who cost $10,000 or more on DraftKings, so let's break down how those drivers have run at Daytona.
Ty Gibbs ($11,300): I hate this price for Ty Gibbs. He's never run an Xfinity race here and while that hasn't stopped him from winning races in the past, I just struggle to see a reason why I'd play him at this point over someone slightly cheaper unless Gibbs starts on the front row and suddenly has easy access to all those points for laps led or he starts below 10th and ends up with place differential upside.
Noah Gragson ($10,900): In two starts here, Gragson has led three laps and has a 12th and a 26th. He had a lot of speed at Daytona, but will that make up for his poor track record here? He does have an average finish of 2.5 at Michigan though, which is a comparable track, and one of those was last year. There could be some decent upside here, but like with Gibbs, qualifying will determine things. I'm not super comfortable with Gragson if he started, say, fifth.
A.J. Allmendinger ($10,500): One positive for Allmendinger: he has a lot of experience here, with 14 Cup Series starts at the track. He has two top 10s in Cup, with an average finish of 19.4, which is better than than his average finish at most tracks. Another positive: he won last year at Michigan, a comparable track to this one, leading 70 laps. Of these top-priced guys, Allmendinger is the one I feel best about regardless of starting spot. He could dominate starting first. He could dominate starting seventh. He could rack up place differential points if he has an issue in qualifying.
Daniel Hemric ($10,300): Hemric has an average finish of 7.7 here in Xfinity. Solid play, though he doesn't feel like someone who would dominate in laps led like Gibbs or Allmendinger.
Justin Allgaier ($10,100): Just half of Allgaier's Xfinity starts here have resulted in top 10s, and he's finished better than ninth just once here since 2010. I know JR Motorsports has speed, but I just don't think Allgaier's track record here suggests that he's someone worth playing at this salary.
Mid-Price NASCAR DFS Options
Looking at some guys between $7,000 and $10,000, we see some intriguing options.
This week, we have a good number of names in this range. Some of those drivers are priced like this because of name recognition (Cole Custer, specifically), but there are some nice potential values.
Trevor Bayne ($9,100) is driving a Joe Gibbs car this week, which makes him a really interesting option in fantasy. Bayne's not the world's best driver, but he's someone who can run a good race and finish well, especially with Gibbs speed.
Sheldon Creed ($8,500) is really interesting at this price. Not really any track experience here, but he did finish second in a Truck race at Michigan in 2019, a comparable track.
Ryan Sieg ($7,000) finished fourth here in 2020. Depending on where he starts on Saturday, there could be a ton of upside here.
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Potential NASCAR DFS Sleeper Picks
Let's look at potential options under $7,000.
Jade Buford ($6,200) is likely going to be one of my favorite plays, even if he qualifies well. This car showed a lot of speed at Daytona before ultimately finishing back in 23rd after an accident. This Big Machine Racing team put a lot of work into upgrading things this offseason and that should pay off with some solid runs.
Brennan Poole ($4,600) is super, super cheap in the 47 for Mike Harmon Racing. That team is...not good, but Poole's a good racer who can coax a solid run out of this team.
And the JD Motorsports duo of Bayley Currey ($5,300) and Ryan Vargas ($5,200) is intriguing. The team downsized this season. If that downsizing leads to increased production, there's going to be a window here where you'll get a solid value on these two before their prices jump a little.
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