RADIO
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! We are coming off a slate where RA was the slate-breaking stack you needed. Most of JDG performed well in their win, LGD won but didn't put up great scores, we called the DK sweep but was completely off with RA and NS yesterday. FPX is struggling to find any consistency, while RA proved to me that they're hitting their stride at the right time. GEN is still the second-best team in the LCK and I shouldn't have doubted them. It feels like GEN and T1 are just a step above the rest this spring, while the rest of the league can be upset any given day. We have another solid five-game slate with a couple of large favorites, so let's get into it and bounce back for sure on this one. HLE is still going to be playing with their backup ADC as SamD is out with Covid, as well as Willer and their coach.
As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) In this case, we probably won't get LCK lineups before the 2:00 AM lock, so we are going to try and project starters based on recent lineups. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM EST on Saturday, February 26th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: BRO (+168) vs. KT (-207)
We might not get starting lineups before lock for this LCK match, but the starters SHOULD be: Morgan/Umti/Lava/Hena/Delight for BRO, and Rascal/Cuzz/Aria/Aiming/Life for KT. KT is on a three-match losing streak and BRO is on a four-loss streak of their own. KT could really use a win here to push themselves two games ahead of LSB and BRO who are chasing them for the last playoff spot. Both teams have solid early game ratings but really struggle to close out games in the mid to late stages, as they both hold negative MLR(mid to late ratings).
This series looks like one that will go three games. Both teams have been struggling recently in draft and on the rift, so I am not seeing a comfortable sweep here for either side. KT has had some serious draft issues while BRO is struggling heavily on the top side of the map and can't decide between Morgan or Sw0rd. Rascal was the play I was most looking forward to when they faced KDF last series, and yes they were swept, but Rascal still performed admirably. I expect KT to come out on top in this series in three games, and Rascal to take advantage of the top lane struggles of BRO. I can't prioritize full stacks for either side in this game, but the case can be made that since both teams struggle to close out games cleanly, the extended games could result in some higher kill games than usual. We got some high scores from both sides in their last match.
Three close contested games could provide some value here, so I am not fully fading this game, but I will be prioritizing one-offs and small stacks in this match. BRO usually intrigues me when they are underdogs, but it's possible KT comes with a similar game plan as they did a couple of weeks ago where Rascal had a stellar outing and Aiming performed as well, and look to get back on track. That being said I can't trust KT right now at these odds, so I will probably be over the field on BRO, as I mentioned KT has had some terrible drafts recently, and BRO might be the only underdog I like on this slate. In a coin flip match like this with two similar teams, I do usually prefer the underdog.
Top BRO plays: Lava, Hena, Umti, Delight
Top KT plays: Aiming, Rascal, Aria
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5:00 AM: T1 (-989) vs. HLE (+637)
For this LCK match, we should see Zeus/Oner/Faker/Gumayusi/Keria for T1 and Dudu/Onfleek/Karis/Cheoni/Vsta for HLE. Not much to break down here, as T1 is the best team in the LCK and giant favorites for a reason. HLE couldn't even beat LSB last time out with a 5k gold lead at 15 minutes, and was swept in the process. Two throws back to back in that series cemented HLE as the worst team in the league, and losing their best player in SamD definitely didn't help. T1 will sweep these guys even though HLE took a game off last time out.
It is a matter of if T1 will put up enough kills/will HLE put up enough of a fight to let T1 pay off their expensive price tags. They are the most expensive stack on the slate behind UP, but I think you need some exposure. T1 continues to put up great numbers led by Gumayusi in the kill share department, and Oner and Keria in the kill participation department. You may need to pair them with BRO which seems like a great GPP option tomorrow, as double LCK stacks have been a solid contrarian look for a while now. LCK stacks continue to be solid plays this year, and much of the field still prefers getting to double LPL stacks. I'll be over the field on double LCK stacks tomorrow.
Top T1 plays: Gumayusi, Oner, Keria, Faker, Zeus
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: UP (-169) vs. WE (+138)
We head over to the LPL where odds place this match at nearly a coin flip. UP plays a volatile style of league similar to team WE. It's important to note Xiye is subbing in for Shanks in this one, which I don't completely see as an upgrade as Shanks has had some solid performances and decent stats throughout this split. Stay remains in the starting lineup for WE as well. UP will be remaining with Aliez in the top lane after subbing out Zs last series. UP has the advantage in GSPD(average gold spent percentage difference) and has the advantage in the vision department as well. WE managed to stick around and steal a game off of BLG but still lost, while UP beat OMG in three games in a series where OMG looked very tilted in some moments and threw game three honestly. This game shapes up to be possibly the bloodiest on the slate.
I would feel more comfortable getting to team WE here if Shanks was still in, but Cryin has been a bright spot recently for UP and I much prefer him in this matchup. Beishang is still the better jungler, but UP having the stronger bot side of the map doesn't bode well for WE. Stay is a solid ADC but Elk is a level above in my opinion. I can see a realm where WE steal another game but with UP looking to make a playoff push I would expect them to come out here with a solid draft and approach to play to their strengths rather than play to negate the opposition's strength. Team WE have just looked uninspiring even with Beishang back, so I do prefer the UP side here and will be prioritizing small stacks over full stacks in this one, as UP is pretty expensive. UP full stacks are also in play as they should score well in a sweep but it's a matter if they do sweep. I am more comfortable getting to T1 full stacks as they have a higher chance to sweep, so maybe that keeps UP ownership suppressed and in that case, I do like getting to UP big stacks in GPPs.
Top UP plays: Elk, Cryin, Shiauc, H4cker, Aliez
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4:00 AM: OMG (+392) vs. WBG (-542)
This matchup features two teams on the opposite end of the spectrum facing off. WBG is surging and rides an eight-game win streak into this one after sweeping LNG, while OMG may have just lost their hopes of making playoffs after dropping the series to UP. WBG is the second-best team in the league in GSPD, while OMG sits in the bottom half. WBG is top three in most gold differential stacks, while OMG sits in the bottom half. OMG definitely needs wins to have a hope at making playoffs, but they have a brutal upcoming schedule, and after seeing them tilt versus UP, I don't see a realm where they take down arguably the best performing LPL team at the moment.
WBG has done well at stomping the bottom-tier teams, barring their match vs AL where they scored really poorly. WBG is pretty affordable to full stack, and with their recent form I expect them to draw a lot of ownership tomorrow. That being said I will be limiting myself to WBG small stacks here. OMG do play an aggressive playstyle and that is probably a bump to WBG's upside here, but it's more an ownership leverage play than anything. I will still have some WBG full stacks but will be underweight here, and will be prioritizing the top side of the WBG map as well, as TheShy has been performing well this split along with Angel, relieving Huanfeng of some of the carry pressure. SofM has also stepped up in the KP% department which we are not used to seeing in the past splits. It's possible this could be a letdown spot for WBG and a desperation backs against the wall angle for OMG, but I can't rely on narratives alone here. WBG has looked amazing and did show some sloppy gameplay in their series win vs LNG, but a lesser competition should end up in cleaner gameplay. OMG will probably be unowned if you want to get there in GPPs but I won't be. Again, I'll be focusing on WBG small stacks around Angel and TheShy.
Top WBG plays: Angel, TheSHy, SofM, Huanfeng
6:00 AM: EDG (-207) vs. TES (+168)
The 6 AM early morning hammer is looking to shape up as an interesting spot for both teams. The public is back on TES as they seem to have found some synergy with this new lineup iteration, while the public is low on EDG. EDG will be starting Xiaoxang in this series over Flandre. EDG has been trying different strategies this split and has been limit testing per se in a lot of their games, even against the top teams this split. I think this is a good spot for EDG to "get right" and sell high on TES and buy low on EDG. EDG still leads the league in GSPD while TES hovers around the middle of the league.
I like Viper to have a great series here and EDG to focus back on getting Viper in a position to carry. Xiaoxang is a sidegrade for me and has a slightly different champion pool than Flandre but is still a solid top laner. TES still has shown to have communication issues in the mid to late stages of the game. I like EDG to probably sweep here, but I'm not sure they will run up the kill count as I expect a more conservative EDG here to get back on track to stay atop the top third in the standings. TES will probably be a chalky underdog tomorrow so I will be fading them here. EDG small stacks are my priority in this one.
Top EDG plays: Viper, Scout, Meiko, JieJie
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be loading up on UP, T1, and WBG tomorrow for big stacks, mixing in BRO as my favorite value. I won't be playing any TES as they should be chalky and team WE look to be in a worse spot with Xiye coming in, but I will have a couple of WE stacks for value as UP is a very volatile team.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are UP/BRO, T1/BRO, WBG/BRO, and EDG/BRO. All in on BRO for value tomorrow pretty much, and is the only underdog I feel somewhat confident in. Team WE is still in play just for leverage.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, I like T1 with BRO, and WBG with BRO as well. I don't play cash but I would look here.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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