RADIO
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! New rosters are still finding their team synergy, and early split underdogs haven't been as profitable as in splits past. Hopefully, you read @NvanhareDFS article yesterday and stacked BLG with some V5 exposure, as it was a great night for many @Rotoballer followers. Shoutout to our fearless leader @ThunderDanDFS for taking down the $1 GPP on Draftkings for some solid ROI. Follow the guys on Twitter, @nolanroth10, and @mr_malmanger too, if you haven't already. Looking to keep the momentum rolling so let's dive into this five-game slate!
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) In this case, we probably won't get LCK lineups before the 2:00 AM lock, so we are going to try and project starters based on new additions. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM EST on Friday, January 21st, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: KDF (-141) vs. LSB (+117)
We might not get starting lineups before lock for this LCK match, but the starters SHOULD be: Dove/Croco/Clozer/Envyy/Kael for LSB and Kiin/Ellim/FATE/Teddy/Hoit for KDF. KDF has yet to win a game, as they were swept by T1 and then KT. LSB sits at 2-2 in matches, sweeping DRX and then getting swept by NS. Is the wrong team favored here? I feel most of the field will think so and prefer to get to LSB. I will be going the other direction in hopes that KDF can pick up their first series victory. The early and mid/late game stats are similar, but this is KDF's most favorable matchup so far, with FATE looking to beat his former squad. It could be tough to see this series producing a ton of kills, but I can see a world where KDF looks to turn it up a notch vs. arguably their first beatable opponent this split, as their early game needs some work and this is a spot to do so.
These teams are matched pretty evenly in terms of talent, where the top side of the map I give a slight edge to LSB, and the bottom side of the map I give to KDF. I believe KDF has had the tougher matches up to this point and struggled in their drafts in the last series. They match up well vs a young LSB roster in my opinion, and this is a solid get-right spot for KDF. KDF should be able to have their best early game of the season vs this LSB squad. This one could very well go three games, but I see the next LCK series more likely to go three games.
I will be mixing in pieces of KDF and LSB in this match. I think the veteran Hoit will have a get-right game here and currently leads his team in KP%, and Ellim has to be involved in the early game playmaking as well. LSB is surely worth a look here as well in large field GPP's, but this game I will be primarily focusing on for value, mixed in with a few full-man stacks for KDF to get different.
Top KDF plays: Teddy, FATE, Ellim, Hoit
Top LSB plays: Croco, Clozer, Dove
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5:00 AM: NS (-152) vs. KT (+125)
For this LCK match, we should see Canna/Dread/Bdd/Ghost/Peter for NS and Rascal/Cuzz/Aria/Aiming/Life for KT. This LCK match will also be a low-owned secondary stack to get to on this five-game slate to fit in the favorites, so I don't mind getting to a side of this match to fit in the more expensive stacks. NS is coming off a great win and fun series to watch vs DK. Both teams are 2-1 in series this split. Both these teams also like to team fight which usually means they are good stacks to look at. However, this one goes three matches in my eyes, and I'm not sure every game will be bloody enough to make this match viable for full stacks. Like most LCK matches, slower-paced gameplay is also not the best option for optimal full stacks.
There have been a couple of games where these teams ramp up the pace and kills, so there's a realm where they can score well. I'm very interested to see how the draft compositions will play out in this series. Dread pulled out the Poppy last series, which is a great counter to Jarvan IV, which is Cuzz's go-to champion this split. Aiming has been an Aphelios fan so far, while Aria has been the early game threat for KT. I see this draft playing out where NS takes some of/counter KT's most picked champs this split, as KT has been pretty straightforward, and forces them onto other picks. Then the players will focus more on not losing their lanes in the early phases and wait to team fight over objectives later in the game. This MAY result in slower gameplay than normal.
It's hard to predict without seeing the drafts how these games will play out in terms of pace, but I'm willing to take a stand in this match with a dog or pass mentality, in hopes that KT isn't afraid to bring it to NS, and why should they be? I've been impressed with their cohesion while NS has shown to be somewhat reckless with their decision-making. It's really close, but I'll side with KT's bot lane to carry them to victory in this one, with Aria stepping up big as well in this match. Cuzz leads the way in KP%, and I've been impressed with Life and his engagement capabilities. Peter for the side of NS has performed well since subbing in, and Canna is probably the best top laner in the LCK, but again I'm taking a stand with KT on this one and fading NS.
Top KT plays: Aiming, Cuzz, Aria, Life
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: LGD (+257) vs. UP (-331)
Right off the bat, this is my favorite matchup of the day to target. There will be fireworks in this one. LGD leads the slate in CKPM(combined kills per minute, a metric to determine pace) and likes to fight all around the map, while UP has also shown they are down to scrap. Neither team has a series win, but UP has had the most brutal schedule of teams on this slate, losing to EDG, TES, and LNG. In their losses have been bright spots, and they took a game off TES and EDG. If anything, losing to the top-tier teams teaches you how to apply certain strategies and ideas moving forward. LGD on the other hand have lost to JDG, FPX, and AL while donating a LOT of kills to the opponent in their losses. All the stars align in this one for UP to be in a position to grab their first series win, and I predict they do it in a sweeping fashion. UP is my favorite stack of the day, and I will be mixing in other teams for my secondary stacks. I will be focusing on the bottom side of the map for UP while fading zs in most of my lineups. Elk(42%!! KS%) and ShiauC(71% KP%) have a great matchup against LGD's struggling bot lane, and H4cker(team leader in KP%) and Cryin will be looking to get their bot lane ahead in this match. Elk is my favorite captain option on the entire slate and should draw some ownership, but his upside is 10+ kills in their wins. You can take shots on LGD since this match should be pretty bloody, but I definitely won't be.
Top UP plays: Elk, H4cker, ShiauC, Cryin (LOAD UP ON THESE GUYS)
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4:00 AM: AL (+417) vs. RNG (-583)
RNG is a large favorite in a match where they should be able to dictate the pace and control this matchup in every lane from start to finish. RNG CKPM has been down this split, as they focus on winning lane and being stronger for team fights in the later stages. If AL wants a chance at victory it's going to have to come through the early game. Even then, RNG has a clear advantage with Wei leading the charge in the early game and playing pretty well this split. AL is a bloodier team in general, but I expect RNG to control the pace in this one. This means I am not extremely confident that RNG chooses to play aggressively against an inferior squad. They know that they can simply win the laning phase and put the pressure on AL to make moves early in the game. Essentially, AL is on a timer each game since RNG is a great team fighting team, with three very strong laners to get to the team fighting stages of the game.
The new pickup of Bin has meant RNG can focus much more on mid and bot lane during the early stages of the game, and that's a bad formula for AL backers in this one. Xiaohu and GALA should be in advantageous positions to carry RNG to a swift 2-0, and as the most expensive team on the slate, you may need to get different to fit them in. Maybe RNG does choose to turn up the pace and kills in this one, but I really don't think they need to. I will still have some shares of RNG full stacks, but I will be even with the field and focus on small stacks, the TEAM slot, and one-offs in this match. Xiaohu and GALA are the main kill carries and share the exact amount of kills so far this split, and will be the top two one-offs from RNG. I lean GALA since AL is a Betty-focused team and will rely on Betty to carry, meaning RNG will probably put GALA in a strong position to carry them to the victory through the draft. AL is worth a shot in large GPP's and is probably my third favorite underdog on the whole slate, but favorites have been smashing so far this split, and I doubt RNG get caught slacking tomorrow.
Top RNG plays: GALA, Xiaohu, Wei, Ming, TEAM
6:00 AM: WBG (-1364) vs. TT (+815)
The 6 AM early morning hammer features WBG as huge favorites against TT, and rightfully so. TT has yet to win a GAME and is 0-4 to start their spring campaign, while WBG is 1-1 after just losing to BLG. I'm not going to spend too much time in this one, as the argument here is very similar to the RNG vs AL match. WBG should sweep, but it's a matter of if they push the pace enough to be considered a good spot to full-stack. As the biggest favorites on the slate, and being cheaper than RNG, they will draw a good amount of ownership. However, I am much more comfortable getting to the other LPL favorites for my full stacks, and once again will be prioritizing small stacks, WBG TEAM slot, and ON-offs(see what I did there? ON leads the team in KP%.) Huanfeng(team leader in KS%) is my second favorite one-off here, followed by Angel who is a good pivot off of Huanfeng, then SoFm who has arguably the best matchup vs a struggling Frigid for TT. I believe WBG dominates from start to finish and doesn't end up as the optimal four-man stack, and WBG's abysmal KP% numbers can back up my beliefs, as even KT has better team KP% numbers.
Top WBG plays: TEAM, ON, Huanfeng, SofM
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be loading up on UP and RNG for full stacks, with KDF and KT also being mixed in at pretty low and enticing ownership. NS and WBG are cheap enough favorites where I will be under the field on them for full stacks in GPP's. For value, I like KDF and KT, with some WBG and LSB one-offs sprinkled in there too.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are UP/KDF, UP/RNG (gotta get creative for this one, jungle captains, and KDF/KT one-offs for me), and UP/KT. This is a good spot for the LCK teams in my opinion to be optimal secondary stacks.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, WBG looks like a good target with their pricing, allowing you to pay up for UP and RNG for secondary stacks. UP is also a smash spot for cash primary stacks too, with the number of kills LGD gives up compared to TT.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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