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Welcome back RotoBallers to my ongoing series about NFBC late-round targets - today we take a look at second base. We have entered January, and that means Fantasy Baseball draft season is ramping up. Sure, we do not know if or when the MLB season will start, but that will not stop us, die-hard fantasy players. Some players have been researching for a few months, while some players are just now getting their first looks at what the 2022 landscape may look like.
In previous years, many players would participate in mock drafts to get their feel for the player pool; in recent years, that has changed with Best Ball and Draft and Hold drafts (DnH). Things have also changed quite a bit with the growth of the NFBC platform. The NFBC runs some of the best contests for fantasy baseball players and has different price points for your average fans and higher stake players.
The beauty of the best ball and DnH drafts is no weekly FAAB/waiver wire process. The main difference between the two formats is that the best ball is just drafting and walking away while DnH is still drafting but still setting your weekly lineups. They are similar to mock drafts; there is not much left to do after the draft, but a little skin in the game keeps the players drafting focused and on the up and up.
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NFBC Draft and Hold Strategy
For the next few weeks leading up to the season, I will be writing a series of articles looking for draft values. For this time of the year, I will be focusing on DnH leagues, and I will go over some later-round targets at each position. In the NFBC, there are NFBC 50’s, which are 12-team leagues, and Draft Champions (DC) which are 15-team leagues. The ADP used in these articles will be for the DC’s. You can find the ADP for all formats on the NFBC website.
The second base position is deep, but still a position you are better off not waiting on too long in drafts. A lot of the late-round DC targets are batting average assets, stolen base assets, or a little bit of both. One thing they usually are not is a power source. As usual, we will look for players with regular playing time, but the later we go in drafts, the longer shots we shall take.
Some of these later-round values are boring veterans that will play nearly every day. At-bats are kind and are harder and harder to find later in drafts. Some of these targets are players looking to bounce back or strong side platoon players that should get you the stats you need as a deep value. Some values will also be young players who do not have a role with the team yet but could be an excellent late-season addition to your team by the season’s end. Let’s look at some of the late-round first base values I am targeting in DnH drafts.
Tony Kemp, Oakland Athletics
NFBC ADP: 388
Roster Resource is not the be-all-end-all, but they have Kemp projected to lead-off for the A's, and it makes a lot of sense. The A's are rebuilding, and Kemp fits in perfectly to everyday at-bats at 2B while leading off. In addition, Kemp is coming off a solid 2021 season where he played in a career-high 131 games racking up 397 plate appearances. He hit .279 with eight home runs and eight stolen bases over those 397 plate appearances.
The stats check out for Kemp as he showcased excellent plate discipline with a 13.1% walk rate and 12.8% strikeout rate. He is backing it up with similar skills he showcased in 2020. Kemp also showcases impressive contact skills with such discipline as he swings less than league averages while making much better contact than the league average.
Kemp will get on base often and steal a fair share of bases. The power is still questioned as a 1% barrel rate, and a 21% hard-hit rate do not promote a ton of power. If Kemp leads off all season, the power will not be a massive deal as his average, runs scored, and stolen bases will be outstanding for his draft price. It also does not hurt that Kemp is also outfield eligible. I have been drafting Kemp often this early draft season, and you definitely should too.
Ramon Urias, Baltimore Orioles
NFBC ADP: 416
Urias played 85 games in 2021 and is expected to start the 2022 season as the Orioles starting SS. In his 85 games, Urias hit .279 with seven home runs and one stolen base. We saw some power (around 10-12 home runs) and some speed off and on throughout the minors as well. The power and speed were inconsistent, but Urias has always hit for average, which could play big with the Orioles.
The Orioles may be a lousy team in wins and losses, but they will score runs in Camden Yards, even with the fence moved back in left field. If Urias leads off, he should get on and score runs thanks to all the Orioles' young boppers. If he hits farther down the order, he will have a chance to rack up a decent amount of RBI.
The ATC projections have Urias hitting 13 home runs with 51 runs and RBI. That is a strong stat line for a post-400 pick. That stat line is also only in 125 games, and if he somehow plays 140+, we could be looking at 15/60/60 and a solid batting average. Do not sleep on Urias as your drafts get into the deeper rounds.
Robinson Cano, New York Mets
NFBC ADP: 505
Yeah, this is not a typo. Cano is being drafted post-pick 500. When you think about it, it makes sense. Cano missed all of the 2021 season due to another PED suspension. He was coming off three straight seasons where he hit no more than 13 home runs but still hit for an excellent average. As he gets older, the power is deteriorating, but the average stays solid.
Cano spent the winter playing in the Dominican Winter League, hitting .300 over 43 at-bats. No home runs, but the bat is coming back. He also missed some time due to a back injury which is always a concern. Injuries aside, Cano becomes a much better gamble with the NL adding the DH. The Mets do have many moving pieces that could affect playing time for Cano, but for now, we should expect him to play DH and get a fair share of at-bats. He makes for an exciting gamble after pick 500.
Michael Chavis, Pittsburgh Pirates
NFBC ADP: 564
Chavis was traded to the Pirates last year, and the change of scenery may have done some good for Chavis. Over 42 plate appearances with the Pirates, he hit .357 with four extra-base hits, including a home run. The .452 BABIP is not sustainable, but the massive improvements from his time in Boston are welcome. Chavis also had a 9% barrel rate with a 50% hard-hit rate, and hard-hit skills have never been a question about Chavis.
He heads into the 2022 season with a chance to see somewhat regular at-bats between second base, first base, and the DH. The ATC projections have Chavis playing in 111 games with 404 plate appearances, a .241 average with 15 home runs. That is outstanding after pick 550. If he somehow locks in an everyday role, we are talking a 20+ home runs this late in the draft. There is a tremendous amount of upside with taking a chance on Chavis.
Richie Palacios, Cleveland Guardians
NFBC ADP: 724
It's time to gamble on a second-base prospect, and this prospect may not even see the Major League roster in 2022. However, the Guardians are selling, so a spot is likely to open up, as well as the chance Andres Gimenez still can't figure it out in the bigs. If either happens, then Palacios could get a chance. Palacios has been raking in the minors. He hit seven home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last year while stealing 20 bases and hitting over .290.
The 24-year-old Palacios has a nice power and speed combination, which could be a game-changer for your fantasy team after pick 700. But he could also never see the light of day making your 50-man roster now a 49-man roster. He is super risky, but the risk may be worth the reward if you are confident in the rest of your roster.
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