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Ben Rosener evaluates under-the-radar free agents who could make a big impact with new teams in 2022 for fantasy baseball leagues.
Despite the free agent frenzy that happened before the lockout, there are still a number of significant free agents left on the board, both in real life and fantasy. Hitters like Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber will draw the headlines, as will pitchers like Kenley Jansen and Clayton Kershaw, and rightfully so. However, there are several under-the-radar free agents remaining who could help out not only your favorite MLB team but also your fantasy team.
Finding undervalued players in drafts is essential to building the foundation of a competitive fantasy roster, and under-the-radar free agents fit the bill as undervalued free agents to a tee, especially because some may be coming off what could be deemed as down seasons.
Undervalued players in drafts take on even more prominence in deeper leagues when the player pool shrinks. Regardless, they’re the kind of players you want to draft.
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Tommy Pham, Outfield
The outfield corner of the free-agent market saw some significant movement prior to the lockout, with Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Chris Taylor, and Avisail Garcia all inking multi-year pacts.
Still, there are a few big names left in Castellanos, Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Michael Conforto. Those free agents are being taken much higher than Tommy Pham in fantasy drafts at the moment.
Remaining Free Agent Outfielders Ranked By ADP, Per NFBC
- Nick Castellanos: 60.28
- Kris Bryant: 88.76
- Kyle Schwarber: 123.75
- Michael Conforto: 186.84
- Tommy Pham: 270.22
Pham is coming off a bit of a down year at the plate. The 33-year-old hit .229 with a .340 on-base percentage, 15 home runs, and a 102 wRC+ in 561 plate appearances for the Padres. Following a pandemic-shortened 2020 season in which he logged a 79 wRC+ in 125 plate appearances, Pham isn’t exactly entering free agency on a statistical high note.
But he shouldn’t be drafted that far behind those outfielders. He should also be able to outperform that ADP by a decent margin this year. Because a deeper dive into the numbers suggests a much different story.
The most obvious number in looking at Pham’s decrease in production is the BABIP. The outfielder sported rather high BABIP numbers early in his career, including a .368 and .342 during the 2017 and 2018 seasons, respectively. Those, as it happens, were two of Pham’s most productive seasons. For reference, he hit .306 with a .411 on-base percentage, 23 home runs, and 25 stolen bases in 530 plate appearances during the 2017 season. During the 2018 campaign, he batted .275 with a .367 on-base percentage, 21 home runs, and 15 stolen bases in 570 plate appearances. Not bad.
What was bad, or at least bad for Pham’s production, was a rapidly decreasing BABIP. It finished at .253 during the pandemic-shortened season and topped out at .280 last year.
And while it might be easy to just point to the BABIP and exclaim “positive regression is coming” in terms of fantasy production, it might just be true with Pham. Because while the BABIP has gone down, many of Pham’s contact metrics have stayed decidedly above average. In other words, he’s more or less making the same contact at the plate, he just doesn’t have the results to show for it.
The veteran’s xwOBA, xwOBAcon, hard-hit rate, and chase rate metrics have all stayed relatively consistent.
Dating back to 2017:
- His xwOBA has yet to dip below .350 in a single season, 2020 included.
- His xwOBAcon has dipped below .400 just once.
- His hard-hit rate has hovered between 43% and 50%.
- His chase rate has risen above 20% just once when it was 20.3% in 2020.
In fact, Pham’s barrel rate actually trended upwards in 2021, after logging barrel rates of 7.9% and 7.3% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Pham’s barrel rate finished this past season at 10%, right in line with his barrel rates of 2017 (9.3%) and 2018 (10.1%).
So that was certainly a positive.
It is worth noting that Pham’s fly-ball rate jumped significantly, at least relative to his standards, climbing to 31.6% in 2021. Before this season, Pham hadn’t topped a 29% fly-ball rate since 2016, when he logged 183 plate appearances for the Cardinals. The launch angle went up to 7.6 too. It hadn’t finished in that range since, you guessed it, 2016.
None of those metrics are exactly fantasy scoring stats, but they point to a potential turnaround on the horizon for the veteran outfielder. Pham looks like a promising fantasy bounce-back candidate.
That being said, you could make the argument that the outfielder doesn’t need to bounce back at all, he just needs to keep doing what he’s doing and the production should improve.
Here are two of Pham’s seasons.
Season A: 7.9% barrel rate, 45% hard-hit rate, .355 xwOBA, .395 xwOBAcon, 16.4% chase rate, 18.8 K%
Season B: 10% barrel rate, 47.6% hard-hit rate, .350 xwOBA, .401 xwOBAcon, 16.1% chase rate, 22.8 K%
Season A was in 2019 when Pham topped 20 home runs and steals while hitting .273
Season B was in 2021
Richard Rodriguez, Relief Pitcher
Rodriguez’s 2021 season was very much a tale of two halves.
In one half of the season, the first half, Rodriguez functioned as Pittsburgh’s closer and functioned quite well. Predominantly throwing his high-spin, four-seam fastball, the 31-year-old pitched to a 2.82 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 22.8% strikeout rate, and a 3.4% walk rate in 38.1 frames for Pittsburgh to go along with 14 saves.
Dealt by the rebuilding Pirates at the deadline for pitcher Bryse Wilson and pitching prospect Ricky DeVito, Rodriguez didn’t have the same success in the second half after switching to the National League East. Sure, his 3.12 ERA wasn’t far off, but just about everything else was.
After registering 33 strikeouts in 38.1 frames for Pittsburgh, Rodriguez punched out just nine in his 26 innings as a member of Atlanta’s bullpen. In part due to the strikeouts drying up, the reliever's FIP soared, finishing at 6.17 in an Atlanta uniform.
This is entirely speculative, but Rodriguez, similar to fellow free agent Brad Hand, seems like the type of a reliever a rebuilding club could take a flier on as a potential closing option, with a view to eventually trading that reliever at the deadline, much in the same way Pittsburgh did with Rodriguez.
Again, that’s purely speculative on my part, but if Rodriguez finds himself in the mix for saves, even on a rebuilding club next season, he’s someone you’ll want to add in leagues where you're searching for saves.
Jorge Soler, Outfield
If you’re looking for guaranteed home run production, Jorge Soler is probably someone you want to keep an eye on in drafts.
Soler, after being dealt in July by Kansas City, enjoyed a highly productive stretch run in Atlanta, batting .269 with a .358 on-base percentage and 14 home runs in 242 plate appearances.
The power production was nothing new for the outfielder, who hit eight home runs with a .215 ISO in 174 plate appearances in 2020 and connected on 48 home runs to go along with a .304 ISO in 679 plate appearances in 2019.
The home run numbers alone are enough to make Soler a viable draft target this spring, but a deeper dive into his numbers shows he has the potential to produce at a decidedly above-average rate across the board – not just in terms of home runs, but in terms of getting on base and making quality contact.
Since the start of 2019, just eight players (minimum 1000 plate appearances during that span) have a barrel rate above 14%, a walk rate of 10.5% or better, and a wOBA above .340.
Three of those eight are Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Bryce Harper. Another is Aaron Judge. Joey Gallo and Josh Donaldson have both done it. So too has Kyle Schwarber.
The last member on that eight-man list? That would be Jorge Soler.
Jorge Soler since the start of 2019:
- 1,455 plate appearances
- 14.7% barrel rate
- 10.9% walk rate
- .350 wOBA
- 118 wRC+
- 83 HR
- .254 ISO
- .335 on-base percentage
Over time, the numbers certainly speak for themselves.
And while it remains to be seen where Soler will end up, he should continue to produce regardless of the ballpark he plays his home games in.
The outfielder, who has hit 83 home runs since the start of 2019, could be particularly effective playing for a team like the Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, or San Diego Padres though that’s all purely speculative. All three have potential needs in the outfield and all three have stadiums that would only help Soler.
Jorge Soler’s expected home runs by ballpark since 2019, per Statcast:
- Guaranteed Rate Field: 110 home runs
- Citizens Bank Park: 109 home runs
- Great American Ballpark: 108 home runs
- Petco Park: 106 home runs
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