RADIO
I am back at it today despite a brutal 0-3 day on Wednesday. Those days will happen and it's always important to remember it's a marathon, not a sprint, right? You have to be able to handle the lows that come with the highs and it's all part of the territory when it comes to betting.
Just understand that I am making these picks in the morning and that things can happen during the course of the day that really affects game totals and spreads. Betting on the NBA is risky right now. I'm not saying we can't still do it successfully, just be aware of the risk.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, January 14th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 59-56
- Against the Spread 38-30
- Over/Under 19-23
- Other/Props 4-4
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too. I also was advised by multiple people that I was being too hard on myself by counting teaser and parlay picks in my overall record, so I took those out and BAM, I'm sitting at six picks over .500 on the year right now, which is pretty solid.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Golden State Warriors (+4) @ Chicago Bulls (222 total)
Man, I had a huge analysis typed out here for this game and it didn't save as I went to update this article! I'll give you the short version this time.
In case you don't think Draymond Green is the DPOY this season...
The Warriors are 2-5 without him. Their defensive rating is 110.4 without him and 101.9 with him (lower is better and 101.9 is the best in the #NBA)
So yeah, we are on the Bulls tonight (no Klay for GSW either)
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) January 14, 2022
No Draymond = big trouble for Golden State. They were stomped by the Bucks last night while Giannis and Portis did whatever they wanted in the paint. On a back-to-back here and on the road, the Warriors must now take on a good Bulls team without Klay Thompson, too.
It's going against the trends to take the Bulls, but we have to throw the season-long data out the window here as no Draymond makes the Warriors an entirely different (and beatable) team.
The Pick: Bulls -4 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Atlanta Hawks (+4.5) @ Miami Heat @ (221 total)
This pick is highly contingent on Jimmy Butler playing, but it's looking like he could return tonight. Even if he doesn't the Heat have been playing well of late, winning three in a row including a 24-point win over these Hawks on the road on Wednesday.
Atlanta is still without their starting center Clint Capela and has dropped four of their last five games. Trae Young simply can't do it all himself and Miami has the type of defense that can stifle good point guards, in fact, they are one of the best against opposing lead guards in the league this season.
It might feel like a trap to bet on the same outcome from two teams who just played, but the Heat should be bigger favorites at home here. I will lay the points and cross my fingers that Jimmy Buckets returns tonight to help his teammates thump the visiting Hawks.
The Pick: Heat -4.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Dallas Mavericks (+2) @ Memphis Grizzlies (215 total)
Listen, folks, the Grizzlies are GOOD. They've reeled off 11 wins in a row, including a nice win over a good Minnesota team last night. This team is deep and is a lot better than most people realize. Even when Ja Morant went down, Memphis continued to win and now that he's back and playing well they are looking like a top 5 team in the league.
The Mavericks are average at best and continue to be without their second-best player Kristaps Porzingis. I am not sure why they are only two-point underdogs here when Memphis is simply better on both ends of the floor and playing at such an elite level.
You might worry about the back-to-back for Memphis, but they're 6-2 with no rest this season ATS. If they can solve Luka tonight, they should handle this Mavs team and Dallas isn't likely to be able to stop Morant, Bane, and the rest of the Grizzlies.
The Pick: Grizzlies -2 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
No Parlays or Teasers today!
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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