RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write primarily MLB and NFL on Rotoballer but I play a lot of NHL DFS and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, January 13th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/13/22
COVID continues to wreak havoc on all sports and as always check the news and lineups before lock and have pivots ready to go in case someone is ruled out late. We have games starting about every thirty minutes between 7 p.m. Eastern Time and 10:30 p.m. Eastern Time. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before lock. Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from the goalie position!
NHL DFS Goalies
Juuse Saros - DK $8.7K || FD $8.4K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
With the Goalie pricing on DraftKings being so tight, paying up for Saros might make some sense. Buffalo is not a good team, and Nashville is one of the largest favorites on the slate. Saros has had five straight games of 20+ fantasy points. The risk with paying this much for Goalie is for a GPP, he would likely need to have a shut-out as it is difficult to envision Saros hitting the 35 save bonus against a team that averages 29 shots per game. If Saros does not start, I would not pivot to Rittich and would instead go with one of the options below.
In general, I would build the main core of your lineup first and then see which Goalie fits. In GPPs, I build my primary stack first, then see which goalie is likely to fit with a cheaper secondary stack.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Markstrom (DK $8.2K || FD $7.9K), Rask (DK $8.3K || FD $8.0K), Quick/Petersen (DK $7.4K || FD $7.0K)
NHL DFS Centers
Mark Scheifele - DK $6.2K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Mark Scheifele should play on the second line and first power play. He is usually at around a point per game player and he should continue to be productive. Detroit is not very good; they allow 33.4 shots per game and 3.4 goals per game. The downside to this play is that Winnipeg has not played since January 6th and they could be a little rusty in this game. For a cash game, we do not need a ceiling, however and he could be a nice value tonight.
Anze Kopitar - DK $5.3K || FD $6.8K
Opponent - Pittsburgh Penguins
Anze Kopitar is on the line with Iafallo and Kempe. Kopitar to me is really a definition of a cash game player. He is going to get a point in most games (usually an assist), he will take some shots on goal (but usually less than five), and he finds himself often in that 7-8 fantasy point range. On nights he scores a goal he scores in double digits. A safer value play for sure in a game that the Kings have a chance to win at. He won't win you a GPP though.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Bergeron (2nd of a back to back) (DK $6.9K || FD $8.2K), Lindholm (DK $6.7K || FD $6.8K), Trocheck (DK $4.8K || FD $5.2K), Fabbri (DK $4.0K || FD $4.9K - W eligible only)
NHL DFS Wings
Patrick Kane - DK $7.8K || FD $8.0K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Patrick Kane gets Montreal coming off a back-to-back in a really good spot here for Chicago. Montreal allows 34.3 shots per game, they have just a 89.3% save percentage, and they allow 3.7 goals per game. Montreal also has the No. 30 penalty kill in the league, so even though Chicago does not have a great power play themselves (No. 21), they get a boost here against a bad team. Kane is a one-point per game player, and he will need to put up more than one point to hit a ceiling but if he can get two points or more than five shots on goal, he should make value in a cash game.
Eeli Tolvanen - DK $3.8K || FD $4.7K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
A quick look and one sees that Tolvanen is on the second line and first power play. The second line consists of Granlund and Duchene, so it's not a bad line to be on. He's not a big scorer, however, getting exposure to one of the best lines on the slate and a power play for a value is something always worth considering for a cash construction.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Meier (DK $8.1K || FD $9.8K), Connor (DK $7.4K || FD $9.0K), Tkachuk (DK $7.3K || $7.8K), Panarin (DK $5.7K || FD $8.2K), Kyrou (DK $6.6K || FD $7.5K), DeBrincat (DK $6.9K || FD $8.1K), C. Brown (DK $3.1K || FD $5.1K), Tatar (DK $3.5K || FD $4.5K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
Roman Josi - DK $8.0K || FD $7.5K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Roman Josi is always on my shortlist of defenders. Most nights he will be the top projected defensemen and with good reason. He has scored 37 points in 35 games, he averages 3.57 shots on goal per game. It is like having a top forward in your defense spot. With Nashville implied for four goals, it's hard to imagine Josi wouldn't be involved in any of the goals.
Torey Krug - DK $5.5K || FD $5.2K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Saint Louis gets Seattle on a back-to-back. Saint Louis is implied for 3.7 goals but I am mostly interested in Krug because of his involvement on the power play. Saint Louis has the No. 3 power-play percent while Seattle has the No. 21 penalty kill percent in the league.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Deangelo (DK $5.7K || FD $6.4K), Doughty (DK $5.4K || FD $6.8K), Galvas (DK $2.5K || FD - Not on FanDuel), Graves (DK $4.0K || FD $5.4K), Brannstrom (DK $2.5K || FD $3.9K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
On this 11 game slate, we have 10 teams that are implied for three or more goals. The teams with the highest implied totals are Nashville (4.0), Calgary (3.8), Boston (3.8), Tampa Bay (3.8), Carolina (3.7), Saint Louis (3.7). The teams with the lowest implied totals are Buffalo (2.2), New Jersey (2.3), Vancouver (2.4), Philadelphia (2.4), Ottawa (2.4), Montreal (2.4), and Seattle (2.4).
This will come at no surprise, as I am a single entry and 3 max type of a player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
This is an interesting slate with no Colorado, no Toronto, and no Edmonton. These teams are always pretty popular. It will be interesting to see how the ownership breaks down.
That said my top stacks tonight are as follows:
Tampa Bay PP1: Vancouver has the worst penalty kill in the league. The players on Tampa Bay are appropriately priced. You can also get exposure to Line 1 and Line 2 depending on whether you want to include Hedman in the stack or opt for Killorn instead.
Nashville 2: Fully correlated to Power-Play 1. I am concerned this stack might be the most popular on the slate as it is not as expensive as some stacks. If it turns out they are way too chalky, cross off the list.
Calgary 1: Implied for 3.8 goals and I imagine will be less popular than Calgary 2 due to price. Calgary 2 is significantly less expensive and I could see people using that line as a filler stack. Exposure to Calgary 1 might be a great way to gain leverage on those with Calgary 2.
Carolina PP1/Carolina 2: Carolina is implied for 3.7 goals tonight. The top power play can get expensive with Sebastian Aho at the top, however, line 2 with Svenichov and Trocheck provides a nice value. If looking for just a center-wing two-man stack, that is one of the better value combinations on the slate. You could always add Fast to complete the line stack, but would only recommend if looking for a punt wing and want to have some correlation vs. not in your lineups.
Saint Louis PP1: As stated before, Saint Louis has the No. 3 power play and Seattle has the No. 21 penalty kill.
Chicago 2: This is my sneaky stack of the night. Chicago won't stand out as they are implied for 3.2 goals. DeBrincat, Kubalik, and Toews give exposure to both power plays.
