NBA DFS Prop Picks for 1/12/22 - Monkey Knife Fight

Nine games Wednesday with just two teams playing on the second night of a back-to-back. The Wizards are without Bradley Beal for another week, but Thomas Bryant is, potentially, hours away from a much-needed return. Daniel Gafford has been anchoring the paint in his absence, but playing the Thunder last night exposed his weakness of keeping opposing players out of the paint, once again.

The only other team playing their second game in two days is the Chicago Bulls, who dismantled the Detroit Pistons in a near 50-point win yesterday, and now face the Brooklyn Nets with Kyrie Irving. The Bulls might also have their defensive playmaker, Alex Caruso, returning from COVID-protocol, but that’s still not nearly enough effort to stop the combined threat of Irving, Kevin Durant, and James Harden.

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CHA @ PHI

Joel Embiid (PHI) MORE 30.5 Points – LaMelo Ball (CHA) MORE 19.5 Points

The 76ers backcourt isn’t healthy and a result of that is Joel Embiid carrying a 40% usage rate over the last two weeks. Mason Plumlee doesn’t shy away from competition, but in the two matchups between the Hornets and 76ers this season, Embiid dropped 43 points the first game and 32 points in the second game, three days later. Every contest has been close, both games ending with a scoring margin less than five points, but the only chance the Hornets have at winning is stopping Embiid, and that’s not really even a possibility with the frontcourt rotation they have.

Shake Milton doesn’t make a massive difference in Philadelphia’s production, but he adds defense where it’s needed and he’s more than capable of running an offense when he’s one of the few options available. That being said, this will be the first meeting between LaMelo Ball and the 76ers, and Ball’s point total has already risen from 18 to 19 points since writing this article. It’s hard to be sold on 20-point games from Ball when that’s just not his style of play. He can hit that mark, but he simply doesn’t regularly.

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DAL @ NYK

Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 25.5 Points – Julius Randle (NYK) MORE 19.5 Points 

The Knicks don’t have someone they can designate to sit on Luka Doncic’ hip all game and actually limit him, so with such a low point threshold and after just a one game absence, Doncic should hit the ground running. The Mavericks don’t have enough options for Doncic to try and resort to other people and everything Dallas has done lately point towards how important Doncic is to this offense.

Julius Randle is in a tough situation. His offense is rarely efficient and his ability to produce in the halfcourt has disintegrated. He still does his work from the post and is able to control matchups because of his size, but defenses are making the Knicks hit shots and it’s lead to a very inconsistent season, Randle included. The last two times these teams met, Randle scored 44 points one game, 14 points and 11 assists the other game. It’s safe to say he’ll produce, but it’s not a guarantee he’ll hit double-digit points anymore.

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MIA @ ATL

Trae Young (ATL) MORE 26.5 Points – Tyler Herro (MIA) MORE 21.5 Points

Atlanta has been sacrificing a ton of points to opponents lately, but playing the Heat usually has the opposite effect. If you are a guard playing against Miami, you will see less production. It’s a guarantee at this point, that the Miami backcourt is stronger defensively than most teams, and their ability to take players out of the game is unmatched. Trae Young is one of the league’s most prolific scorers, but all bets are thrown out the window when facing this Heat backcourt.

On the other side, the Hawks backcourt defense is borderline invisible and with Tyler Herro taking over 20 shots in his previous four games, the upside is absolutely there. Atlanta’s defense doesn’t have but Clint Capela to rely on and his lone impact isn’t enough to create any type of defensive pressure on opposing backcourts. Until the Hawks have someone like De’Andre Hunter back in the rotation, teams playing the Hawks will focus their attention against their guards.

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LAL @ SAC

LeBron James (LAL) MORE 30.5 Points – De’Aaron Fox (SAC) MORE 21.5 Points

De’Aaron Fox is averaging 21 points per game over the last week, but he’s failed to hit 20 points in his last two games. With one of those teams being the Cavaliers and the other the Trail Blazers, Fox should have hit 20 points in one of those games and it doesn’t take a genius to know which contest he should have had a more productive game. The inconsistency is there, but Fox plays well against the Lakers and Los Angeles’ best defender, Avery Bradley, rarely gets the most minutes in their backcourt. Until the Lakers establish a defensive footing, specifically amongst their guards, players like Fox should be able to score at all three levels.

For LeBron James, it’s pretty much a waste of time to look at the defense he is playing. In this case, the Kings defense is absolutely terrible and is still missing key pieces that help keep their head above water. Without anyone in Sacramento’s frontcourt able to defend, the Lakers should feel comfortable running James at center and letting him torch this defense from the inside-out.

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