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Fantasy football start em, sit em and lineups advice for the Raiders vs Chargers Sunday game in Week 18 (2021). Dan Fornek analyzes the SNF matchups with a detailed breakdown.
The last week of the NFL regular season is always difficult to navigate in the fantasy playoffs. Most fantasy leagues ended in Week 17, however, plenty of fantasy managers will go for the championship in Week 18. Thankfully for fantasy managers, Sunday night’s game between the Chargers and Raiders will have playoff implications on the line, meaning all meaningful starters will have to play to try and get their teams into the Wild Card round.
The Chargers head into this week’s game after securing a crucial win against the Broncos in Week 16 after dropping consecutive games to the Chiefs and Texans. Justin Herbert has put together a stellar sophomore season after breaking records as a rookie. Herbert is completing 67% of his passes this season, throwing for 4,631 yards and 35 touchdowns with 14 interceptions. Austin Ekeler has thrived in a three-down role for the Chargers this season, carrying the ball 190 times for 847 yards and 11 touchdowns while adding 65 receptions on 82 targets for 612 yards and seven receiving scores. The Chargers’ passing attack is led by Keenan Allen (149 targets, 100 receptions, 1,086 yards, six touchdowns) and Mike Williams (112 targets, 67 receptions, 1,027 yards, and eight touchdowns).
A win against the Colts in Week 17 kept the Raiders’ slim playoff hopes alive. Las Vegas has now won three games in a row after a stretch of games that saw them lose five of six contests. A win against the Chargers would guarantee a playoff appearance for Las Vegas during a tumultuous year that saw them fire their head coach and numerous legal problems throughout the program. Derek Carr has been a steady presence this season, completing 69% of his passes for 4,618 yards and 21 touchdowns with 14 interceptions. Josh Jacobs has finally developed into a three-down threat this season, carrying the ball 191 times for 740 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 52 receptions (on 62 targets) for 336 yards. The only consistent receiver for Las Vegas is Hunter Renfrow, who is a top receiver this season with 99 catches on 123 targets for 1,025 yards and seven touchdowns.
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Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
- Sunday, January 9, 8:15 p.m.
- Game line: Chargers -3
- Game total: 49.5
Must Starts
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Justin Herbert comes into this week looking to close out his 2021 season on a high note. The second-year quarterback has struggled his last three games, throwing for 809 yards and five touchdowns, and three interceptions. Two of those games resulted in losses, which puts Los Angeles in a position where they have to win to get to the playoffs. In his first matchup against the Raiders, Herbert threw for 222 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions. The Raiders are allowing just 16.6 fantasy points per game this season, but have generated just five interceptions.
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Derek Carr has continued to provide a solid floor at the quarterback position this season as a QB2. However after a hot start to the season, he has cooled off considerably. In his last five games, Carr is completing 73% of his passes and has 1,204 yards, but has just four touchdowns and five interceptions over that stretch. The Raiders need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, which will mean once again relying on Carr’s arm. Carr gets a matchup against a Chargers’ secondary allowing 17.1 fantasy points per game. In his first matchup with the Chargers, Carr threw for just 196 yards but had two touchdowns.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Austin Ekeler continues to provide fantastic value in all fantasy formats. In his last four games, Ekeler had 55 carries for 243 yards and four touchdowns. He’s also added 14 receptions on 16 targets for 139 yards during that stretch of games. The veteran running back is averaging 12.7 carries and 5.5 targets per game this season. The Raiders are allowing 21.5 fantasy points per game this season, the sixth most of any team this season. Ekeler had a huge game against the Raiders in Week 4, carrying the ball 15 times for 117 yards and a touchdown and three receptions (on five targets) for 28 yards and a receiving score.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Josh Jacobs has been getting an excellent workload in his last five games for the Raiders. Since Week 12, Jacobs is averaging 16 carries and 5.2 targets per game out of the backfield. During that stretch, he has 80 carries for 320 yards and two touchdowns while adding 22 receptions on 26 targets for 138 yards. Jacobs has finally been unleashed as a receiving back in Las Vegas with the Kenyan Drake injury (and Darren Waller’s absence). The Chargers are the fourth-worst team in fantasy against running backs this season (22.2 fantasy points per game) and have allowed 18 rushing touchdowns this year.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Keenan Allen is seeing a consistent target share in the Chargers’ passing attack but it hasn’t produced huge numbers in the receiving game. Since Week 12, Allen is averaging 8.3 targets per game for Los Angeles. However, he has just 4.8 receptions and 47.8 yards per game during that stretch. Thankfully for fantasy managers, Allen has been getting plenty of touchdowns in his last four games, finding the end zone four times. The Raiders are allowing just 17.5 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this year, but Allen’s touchdown upside (and high target share) make him a strong play once again.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Mike Williams came back from the COVID list and had an impact in Week 17 against the Denver Broncos. Williams played in 84% of the team’s offensive snaps and caught three of four targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. Williams had a poor game against the Raiders in the team’s first matchup (one reception for 11 yards) and will look to bounce back against the Raiders in a must-win game if the Raiders hope to make the playoffs.
Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)
Hunter Renfrow has been a fantasy revelation over the past six games for the Las Vegas Raiders. Since Week 11, Renfrow has had 43 receptions on 50 targets for 501 yards and three touchdowns. The third-year receiver has at least 70 receiving yards in four of his last six games and has found the end zone in his last two games. Renfrow had six catches on eight targets for 45 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers in their first game. The Chargers are the fourth-best team against wide receivers this season (17.6 points per game), but Renfrow’s role in the passing game makes him a safe start.
Consider Sitting
Josh Palmer (WR, LAC)
With Mike Williams off the COVID list, Josh Palmer went back to a complementary role in the Chargers’ passing attack in Week 17. Palmer was targeted five times but had just three catches for 16 yards against the Broncos in a blowout victory. Palmer will be relegated to a minor role once again this week and can’t be trusted to provide a safe fantasy floor.
DeSean Jackson (WR, LV)
DeSean Jackson has had an inconsistent role for the Raiders since joining them in Week 10. In eight games, Jackson is averaging just 2.4 targets and 1.5 receptions per game. Jackson has just two games with 40 receiving yards and one touchdown in Las Vegas this season. Jackson is a complete boom or bust player in fantasy each week and only has value if he can shake loose and find the end zone on a deep throw.
Upside Plays
Las Vegas Tight Ends
Darren Waller is once again practicing in a limited capacity this week as he tries to work his way back from a knee injury. Waller hasn’t played since Week 12 but could get activated this week in a must-win game for the Raiders. Waller would probably be on a snap count, but could still see a high volume of targets when he’s on the field. If Waller can’t go, Foster Moreau would have an equally appealing upside. Moreau has struggled to make a significant impact for Las Vegas since Week 12 (16 receptions on 23 targets for 188 yards) but would have a great matchup against the worst defense in fantasy football against tight ends (11.8 points per week).
Jared Cook (TE, LAC)
Jared Cook hasn’t had a massive impact in fantasy this season but he has shown the ability to find the endzone, which is good enough for tight ends to provide value. Cook is averaging just 5.1 targets, 2.9 receptions, and 32.3 receiving yards per game this year. His best game of the season came against the Raiders back in Week 4. Cook caught six of seven targets for 70 yards and a touchdown during that game and will have similar upside against a Raiders defense allowing the third-most fantasy points per game this year (9.9).
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