Finding Tight End Breakouts - Champs, Chumps, and Contenders

Robert Lorge looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 14. He uses advanced stats for tight ends to find breakouts (champs) and fallers (chumps) to add or drop.

With just a few more weeks of the season, fantasy managers need to stay on their toes, especially at the tight end position unless you have one of the top-three studs. Four, if Waller is healthy. Even T.J. Hockenson cannot be considered a must-start, as we'll find out below. It's a position filled with land mines and everyone is just doing their best to avoid them the best they can.

As we have all year in this series, we're going to be taking a deep dive into some of the lesser-known tight ends, the ones that don't fall into that set it and forget it grouping, which, unfortunately, pretty much includes everyone. The whole "start your studs" philosophy doesn't really get applied to tight ends because there are simply so few studs to go around and because of that, there are questions galore.

I hope this weekly deep-dive breakdown has helped you make some worthwhile start/sit decisions and hopefully even helped you find Dawson Knox and Dalton Schultz, who have turned into waiver-wire darlings. While deciphering this position isn't easy, there are answers that can be found in the numbers. Let's see what Week 14 has in store for us. And for those of you who may already have their playoff spot locked up or are already thinking about a Week 15 dilemma, shoot me a message @RobFFAddict on Twitter and I'll be sure to include an answer in next week's edition. Good luck everyone!

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In-Season Breakout vs. Off-Season Hype Train

Dawson Knox or T.J. Hockenson

There were plenty of players to garner a ton of love in the offseason, but no tight end garnered more love than T.J. Hockenson. In some circles, he was even trumping Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens, which displays how strong the hype around Hockenson was. Knox on the other hand, was largely written off as a disappointing player who would get lost in the other receiving options in Buffalo. Well, fast forward to Week 14 and while Hockenson does have more points scored, that's due to the fact that Knox missed a few games with a broken hand. In half-PPR scoring Knox actually has the edge over Hockeson – 10.3 points per game to 9.6. Essentially it's been a toss-up when both have been healthy. So what does that mean for Week 14 and the rest of the season? Let's take a look.

There's no denying it – Hockenson's peripherals look better than Knox's, in some places even a lot better. On the season, the former Hawkeye is averaging seven targets per game, while Knox is averaging just 4.7 targets. That's a significant advantage for Hockenson, fantasy managers should always be chasing volume. The excess opportunity has led to a higher number of receptions per game (5.1 to 3.3) and yards per game (49 to 43). It should come as no surprise then that Hockenson also racks up more air yards than Knox on a weekly basis (51 to 38). Hockenson sports a 21.8% target share while Knox is much lower, at 13.8%. Needless to say, the old fantasy football moniker of chase volume screams T. J. Hockenson, but what about where Knox has the edge?

Knox's average depth of target stands at eight yards, while Hockenson is at 7.4 yards. Those numbers are fairly close, but what is not close is their yard per reception average where Knox has a substantial lead. He sits at 13 yards per catch, while Hockenson is at 9.6 yards. This is how, despite less volume, Knox is only averaging six yards less per game than Hockenson. Now, the biggest advantage for Knox is in his red zone usage.

On the season, Knox has 13 red zone targets in 10 games. Hockenson, on the other hand, has just nine such targets in 12 games. The difference on a per game basis is 1.3 targets for Knox and just 0.75 for Hockenson. Fantasy managers see a similar trend inside the 10-yard line where Knox has seven such targets to Hockenson's four. This kind of red zone utilization can begin to describe why Knox has seven touchdowns to Hockenson's four. Now, you'll recall Knox's target share from earlier, but he sees a massive uptick once the team gets into scoring position. Inside the 20-yard line he has a 16.9% target share and that jumps all the way to 24.1% inside the 10. Hockenson also sees an uptick in target share when the Lions get close. He has a 25.0% target share inside the 20 and 30.8% inside the 10. The difference is how often these teams are getting into the red zone. The Bills average 4.3 trips per game, while the Lions are at 2.3. Now that all the numbers are out on the table, who should fantasy managers be playing in Week 14 or prioritizing for the rest of the season?

In Week 14, Knox faces off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where Hockenson and the Lions will battle against the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends on the season, giving up just 5.0 points per game in half-PPR. The Buccaneers are allowing the eighth-most per game at 9.1

Sunday's #Bills - #Buccaneers game features 2 teams that rank ...

* Top 9 in offensive plays per game

* Top 8 in @fboutsiders' situation-neutral pace

* Top 2 in situation-neutral pass rate

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) December 7, 2021

If you're looking for the Week 14 play, it's Dawson Knox. The Bills and Buccaneers game has the look of a track meet and the implied point total of 53 tells fantasy managers there should be a plethora of points scored. For reference, the Lions and Broncos game is currently set with a 43 point implied total. Dawson Knox has the much easier matchup and the game script should favor him as well. Teams have been unable to run on the Buccaneers to the point that some don't even try and we already know the Bills don't try to run all that much anyway. Knox has a much higher ceiling in this one and their floors are similar due to Hockenson's tough matchup.

However, when it comes to the rest of the season, Hockenson should be the play. Knox has one of the most challenging schedules for any tight end, which we'll touch on a bit later. Chasing volume is almost always the right call, but sometimes, especially at tight end where scoring opportunities are so crucial, it's important to play the matchups too. Hockenson has the better rest of season schedule and he's getting more volume. He's the easy pick there, but in Week 14, fire up Dawson Knox and reap the benefits.

Rookie vs. Rookie Showdown

Kyle Pitts or Pat Freiermuth

Speaking of in-season breakout vs off-season hype train, here we have another similar case study, but this time it's even more interesting because it's rookie vs. rookie. There were very few people who didn't expect Kyle Pitts to come into the league and have one of the better, maybe even the best rookie season for a tight end ever. The problem for some was simply the cost of acquisition, not the talent. Pitts is currently on pace for 112 targets, 70 receptions, 1,004 yards and amazingly just one touchdown. Freiermuth, on the other hand, is pacing at a 78 target, 61 reception, 500 yards and 8.5 touchdown clip. It's easy to see one player has amazing touchdown luck and the other one simply has not and that's been the equalizer as far as fantasy football is concerned. Pitts has a slight advantage in points, averaging 8.5 per game, while Freiermuth is at 7.7.

In order to best view Freiermuth's value, it'll be important to look at the most accurate sample size. At the beginning of the season, Eric Ebron and the Muth were splitting time almost 50/50, which includes both snap share and routes run. However, Ebron got hurt prior to Week 7 and is now on IR. For Freiermuth, we'll be looking at his per game averages in Weeks 7–13. For Pitts, it's best to look at Weeks 5–13 because the first four weeks of the season, Calvin Ridley was active. Since that time, he's been injured and is currently dealing with mental health issues, so those will be the timeframes we'll be looking at.

During that time, Pitts has averaged seven targets per game, with 4.3 receptions and 65 yards. He's had an extremely healthy average of 83 air yards and a depth of target of 11.8 yards. His air yard average over that time ranks second in the NFL among tight ends and his average depth of target is first among tight ends who are averaging at least three targets per game. Freiermuth isn't far behind Pitts in terms of targets per game in his sample size, averaging 6.2, but almost all of the other numbers are significantly worse. Freiermuth is averaging 4.2 receptions, but just 33 yards per game. He's recording 28 air yards per game and has an average depth of target of 4.5 yards. Out of 39 qualifying tight ends averaging at least three targets during that time, his air yardage average ranks 24th and his average depth of target ranks 32nd. Looking at those numbers, this discussion really shouldn't even be a discussion, but touchdowns, especially at the tight end position, can be a massive equalizer.

Tight end top-12 fantasy football finishes:

9: Travis Kelce
7: Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Dalton Schultz
6: George Kittle, Dawson Knox, Tyler Higbee
5: Rob Gronkoswki, Darren Waller, Zach Ertz, Noah Fant, Evan Engram, Mike Gesicki, Pat Freiermuth

I'm not forgetting anyone

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 8, 2021

Freiermuth has six touchdowns – five during the sample size we were looking at. Meanwhile, Pitts has just one. There's a reason for that, Freiermuth has 15 red zone targets compared to Pitts' 10 and remember, Freiermuth hasn't been the starter all season. The discrepancy continues inside the 10-yard line where Freiermuth has nine targets to Pitts' five. And it's not just the targets, it's the efficiency. Freiermuth is catching 67% of his red zone targets and 78% of his targets inside the 10-yard line. Pitts is only catching 30% of his red zone targets and 40% of his targets inside the 10. So how should fantasy managers be handling these two very different players in Week 14 and beyond?

Neither player has a good Week 14 matchup, which is unfortunate. The Falcons are playing the Panthers, who are allowing the seventh-fewest points to tight ends and Freiermuth has the Vikings, who are allowing the 11th-fewest. In Week 14 because of Freiermuth's also difficult matchup, fantasy managers should follow the volume. Based on the Muth's per-game averages, he's going to need to score a touchdown to put together a decent fantasy performance. Pitts, at the very least, is getting a massive workload. However, as far as the rest of the season goes, fantasy managers may want to pivot to the other rookie because Pitts' playoff schedule may just be the worst for any tight end and that will make him very difficult to trust moving forward.

Worst Playoff Schedules for Tight Ends

• Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
  • @ San Francisco – 32nd in fantasy points being allowed per game to opposing tight end / 3.2 points per game in half-PPR
  • vs Detroit – 20th / 6.5 PPG
  • @ Buffalo – 29th / 5.0 PPG
• Dawson Knox
  • vs Carolina – 26th / 6.0 PPG
  • @ New England – 31st / 4.5 PPG
  • vs Atlanta – 16th / 7.6 PPG
• Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
  • vs New York Jets – 4th / 10.1 PPG
  • @ New Orleans – 18th / 7.3 PPG
  • @ Tennessee – 23rd / 6.2 PPG
• Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks
  • @ Los Angeles Rams – 12th / 8.2 PPG
  • vs Chicago – 28th / 5.1 PPG
  • vs Detroit – 20th / 6.5 PPG

Best Playoff Schedules for Tight Ends

• Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
  • vs Cincinnati – 14th / 7.7 PPG
  • @ Las Vegas – 1st / 12.4 PPG
  • @ Los Angeles Chargers – 6th / 9.7 PPG
• Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
  • vs Seattle – 2nd / 11.4 PPG
  • @ Minnesota – 22nd / 6.4 PPG
  • @ Baltimore – 8th / 9.1 PPG
• Washington Football Team - *Pay Attention to Ricky Seals-Jones practice status with Logan Thomas going on season-ending IR* 
  • @ Philadelphia – 3rd / 11.2 PPG
  • @ Dallas – 17th / 7.5 PPG
  • vs Philadelphia – 3rd / 11.2 PPG
• Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
  • @ Indianapolis – 5 / 9.8 PPG
  • vs Buffalo – 31st / 4.5 PPG
  • vs Jacksonville – 15th / 7.6 PPG

Best Tight End Streamers for Week 14

1. Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings

Adam Thielen has already been ruled out for their Thursday night matchup against the Steelers, which puts Conklin in an excellent position for fantasy managers looking to stream the position. Conklin is an interesting conundrum for fantasy managers because he's often asked to stay in and block way more than other starting tight ends, which isn't generally a good recipe for success. If you're not running a route, it's pretty much impossible to catch a pass. And yet, Conklin is 11th in targets per game among tight ends at 5.3 per game. He's also 11th in receptions per game and 14th in yards per game.

Unfortunately for Conklin and fantasy managers, he's only caught three touchdowns. That's because Justin Jefferson has received 17 red zone targets and Adam Thielen has 14 – together they combine for 51% of Kirk Cousins' red zone attempts. With Thielen out this Thursday, a huge opportunity awaits him. That includes overall targets, but most importantly, it increases the likelihood Conklin will be targeted in the red zone, which is important for a tight end. Conklin actually has 14 red zone targets himself, so it's not like Cousins isn't looking his way. With Thielen out, fantasy managers should expect Conklin to receiver 6–8 targets on Thursday night and at least 1–2 red zone targets.

Over the last four weeks, Tyler Conklin already led the NFL in RZ TGT with 9 (Brate and Air Freier tied at 8, and yes, WRs included) and tied for 2nd in EZ TGT (5 - Diggs, Lockett, DK, Henry, JJeff with Andrews at 6) before Thielen out this week

— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) December 6, 2021

In Week 13 when Thielen got hurt, Conklin finished the day with nine targets and turned that volume into seven catches and 56 yards. He is likely looking at a similar workload in Week 14. Dalvin Cook hasn't been ruled out yet, but chances are he'll miss another game. The Steelers' defense has allowed the ninth-fewest points to tight ends this season, so the matchup isn't ideal, but his role and increased opportunity are. If you're looking for a streamer, he's most likely the best one.

2. Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks

Since Russell Wilson came back in Week 10, Everett is averaging the fourth-most targets per game among tight ends at 6.8 per game. He's also fourth in receptions. The volume, the opportunity, it's all right there. Over that period, he's the TE13 and that includes Week 13 where he actually finished with a negative score. Seriously, not a typo. Also, probably not the best selling point when it comes to "hey, this guy is a good streamer this week", but even last week he received six targets from Wilson. The TE13 ranking over the last four weeks is even more impressive when you consider the schedule he went up against. The 49ers are allowing the fewest points to tight ends this season, the Cardinals have allowed the sixth-fewest, Packers the eighth-fewest and Washington the 14th-fewest. His four-game stretch might just be the most difficult any tight end has faced all season and he came out of it ranked TE13. That's with Russell Wilson kinda forgetting how to play quarterback those first two games back.

In Week 14, the schedule gets a lot easier. He's up against the Houston Texans, who are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Russell Wilson and the passing offense seemed to find at least some success in Week 13 against the 49ers and fantasy managers should expect an even better performance this week. Most teams have ran all over the Texans this season, but the Seahawks likely will not have that luxury. Their running back group is one of the worst in the league and as a team, they have the ninth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL. Chances are, if the Seahawks want to move the ball consistently, they'll need to do via Wilson's arm. Everett's 20.6% target share indicates he'll have his fair share of opportunities to make a play and in a plus-matchup fantasy managers should feel confident firing him up as a solid streamer this week.

3. Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns

When it comes to streaming tight ends, it can get pretty ugly out there. How ugly? Well... Austin Hooper ugly. There is some reason for optimism though.

Harrison Bryant and David Njoku are both out for Week 14, meaning Austin Hooper will be the Browns’ lone tight end vs. the Ravens, who allow the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends

I’d start Hooper over Noah Fant this week and wouldn’t even think twice about it

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) December 8, 2021

Hooper, David Njoku and Harrison Bryant have combined for a 31.6% target share for the Browns this season. It won't work out like this so don't expect this from Hooper, but it goes to show the kind of opportunity Hooper has this week – these three tight ends have combined to average 8.9 targets per game, 5.9 receptions and 74 yards. Now again, don't expect that kind of production from Hooper. He's not going to gobble up 100% of the work Njoku and Bryant leave behind, but the opportunity is there. Not only that, but he has a really good matchup against Baltimore who has struggled against opposing tight ends. If you're in a pinch, playing Hooper is the very definition of streaming. He finds himself with an increased opportunity this week in a plus-matchup.

Tight Ends to Avoid in Week 14

1. Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

Higbee's role on this team is very, for lack of a better word, boring. It lacks upside outside of him finding the end zone and even when he does score, the ceiling is 10–12 points. He has exactly one game with double-digit points. If Matthew Stafford is going to attack a defense downfield, it simply isn't going to be with Higbee. His average depth of target is 5.5 yards, which ranks 29th out of 40 tight ends averaging at least three targets per game. It's a disgustingly low number. His air yards per game is ranked 24th. These two indicators show a complete and utter lack of upside and it's translated to his on-the-field production. He has two games where he's recorded more than 50 yards this season and one of them was 51.

On the plus side, he's highly involved in the red zone and ranks first among all tight ends with 16 red zone targets. When you're starting Higbee, you're hoping for a touchdown because without it, you're looking at anywhere from 1–7 points. Even when he does find the end zone, the ceiling really doesn't increase by much. The problem with hoping for a touchdown in Week 14 is the opponent. The Rams are on the road against the Arizona Cardinals, who are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The matchup is awful and his role is so limited it leaves fantasy managers needing a touchdown. Despite the 16 red zone looks, he's scored just three times and the smart money is on that number staying right where it is with a tough matchup on the horizon.

2. Evan Engram, New York Giants

Do you know who Evan Engram is? Evan Engram is Lucy from Charlie Brown and every fantasy manager that starts Engram is Charlie Brown. You've likely started him in the past, trusting in his target share and positive matchups and time after time, he's let you down. He's played in 10 games this season and has one double-digit performance to his ledger. Despite being 13th in targets per game among tight ends, he ranks 24th in PPG among tight ends who have played at least five games.

He's been under 40 receiving yards in seven out of his ten games, illustrating the fact that he absolutely needs a touchdown to score even remotely decent. Let's take a gander at his touchdown chances...

A quick list of tight ends w/more red zone targets than Evan Engram... Donald Parham, Durham Smythe, Geoff Swaim, Hayden Hurst, Adam Shaheen, Ryan Griffin, Jimmy Graham, David Njoku and teammate Kyle Rudolph. 🤮🤮🤮

— Rob (@RobFFAddict) December 8, 2021

This offense is broken. It's disgusting. Engram simply cannot be trusted to take advantage of a plus matchup and fantasy managers would be wise to avoid Engram entirely.

3. Noah Fant, Denver Broncos

It's getting near impossible to trust any Broncos' receiver and that goes for Noah Fant too. Since Jerry Jeudy returned to the lineup in Week 8, the passing game in Denver has been a giant cluster. Below you'll find a list of Fant's stats since Jeudy returned to the lineup and as you'll see, there's not a single fantasy finish fantasy managers would be particularly happy about.

• Week 13 – 4 catches / 33 yards / 0 touchdowns
• Week 12 – 3/12/0
• Week 11 – Bye
• Week 10 – 5/59/0
• Week 9 – Inactive
• Week 8 – 2/8/0

The Broncos have seven players averaging between three and seven targets, which might just be the most spread-out offense in the NFL. It's anyone's guess who will lead the Broncos' in targets on any given week after Jeudy who has settled in as the No. 1 target. During that stretch of time, Fant is averaging 4.5 targets, 3.5 receptions and just 28 yards. His average depth of target is 5.5 yards, which is terribly low.

The Broncos are only attempting 34 passes per game, which is 19th in the NFL. It's a fairly low-volume passing offense and there are as many as six players who command targets. In Week 14, the Broncos go up against the Lions and while the matchup sounds good (because well.....it's the Lions) that isn't quite the reality. The Lions have allowed the 12th-fewest points to opposing tight ends in the NFL this season with just 6.5 points. Since Week 8, Fant is averaging 4.55 points per game.

The Broncos are likely to lean heavily on Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon in Week 14. The Lions' defense has given up the fifth-most points to fantasy running backs this season and with two capable running backs in Denver, there likely won't be a good reason for Teddy Bridgewater to air it out. Fant is likely going to disappoint you unless he finds the end zone, which is something he has not done since Week 6.

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