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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Sunday Night Football -Broncos vs Chiefs showdown slate. His Week 13 SNF daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome to Week 13, RotoBallers! We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully that trend continues tonight with Sunday Night Football. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate on December 5th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Patrick Mahomes ($18,600 DK, $17,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 3,200 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 11 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 25.5% (ninth), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 9.4% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
We start off this slate with Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is the most expensive player on both sites, but I think he'll be well worth it at the captain/MVP position. In seven games against the Broncos, Mahomes has thrown for 1,825 yards, 10 touchdowns, and three interceptions. The touchdown numbers per game are low, so it's not out of the question to hedge here with a Chiefs running back like Clyde Edwards-Helaire or even Darrel Williams, but I personally think Mahomes plays lights out tonight.
Javonte Williams ($11,400 DK, $10,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 117 carries, 568 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 33 targets, 27 catches, 193 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown.
- 2021 Data: 47.09% snap rate, 41.79% attempt rate, 32.08% red-zone attempt rate, 40.00% attempt rate within the five-yard line, 9.38% target rate, 10.64% red zone target rate.
- Offense Rush DVOA: -6% (13th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -3.4% (28th), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of this matchup, we have Javonte Williams. Williams becomes a must-start in season-long fantasy leagues, and I'd go as far as saying that he's a must-play on this slate. He's not too expensive, and the volume he should get with Melvin Gordon out is just too good to pass up. Partner that with a strong matchup against a poor Kansas City run defense and Williams is primed for a big night.
Other Captains/MVPs: Travis Kelce, Teddy Bridgewater
DFS Flex Plays
Teddy Bridgewater ($9,800 DK, $14,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 2,518 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, five interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 20.9% (12th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 11.6% (21st), per Football Outsiders.
This game very well could turn into a shootout, and if that's the case, we're going to want parts of each passing offense. Bridgewater has been solid for Denver this season, as shown in the respectable offensive pass DVOA of 20.9%. Bridgewater faced the Chiefs last November as a member of the Panthers, where he completed 36 of 49 passes for 310 yards and two touchdowns. While I don't expect a repeat performance, Teddy should do enough to be considered in optimal lineups.
Tyreek Hill ($10,800 DK, $14,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 122 targets, 84 receptions, 932 receiving yards, eight touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 78.03% snap rate, 27.85% target rate, 25.45% red-zone target rate, seven end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Kyle Fuller): 17% target rate per route covered, 59% catch rate, 0.31 fantasy points per route covered.
Tyreek Hill has been on a tear all season, as we expected, but it is seeing incredible volume that makes it near impossible to fade him regardless of his price. He's seen double-digit targets in each of the last four weeks, and in seven of the last eight weeks in total. He gets a strong matchup regardless of who's covering him, but especially against Kyle Fuller, who is bound to give up big plays as seen by his 0.31 fantasy points per route covered.
Other Flex Options: Jerry Jeudy, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
DFS Value Plays
Byron Pringle ($1,800 DK, $7,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 32 targets, 23 receptions, 338 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 40.4% snap rate, 7.31% target rate, 1.82% red-zone target rate, three endzone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Patrick Surtain): 18% target rate per route covered, 53% catch rate, 0.26 fantasy points per route covered.
A high-upside "punt" play here, but I really do think it's incredible that Pringle has seen three endzone targets despite only having 1.82% of the red-zone target share. I have him and Mecole Hardman similarly projected, but Pringle is $3,000 cheaper on DraftKings. I don't expect him to get more than five targets, but even if he gets 2-3 and can take one of them to the house, it's worth a shot at his very cheap price tag.
Harrison Butker ($4,200 DK, $9,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 18 field goals attempted, 15 field goals made, 32/33 PAT.
I've been saying for a week or so in these articles about how tight ends have taken over showdown games, and then followed up on Thursday mentioning how kickers have been taking over showdown games. I'm going to continue to play them until it burns me, which it hasn't yet. I've noticed that picking the kicker from the team likely to score points is the more optimal strategy (shocking revelation), so that's what I plan to do tonight with Butker.
Other Value Plays: Mecole Hardman, Darrel Williams
Overall Slate Note
This should be a fun divisional SNF matchup tonight. You likely noticed that I'm very heavy on the Chiefs tonight, and hardly mentioned any Broncos. That doesn't mean that I don't like any Broncos or that I won't be playing any of the guys I didn't mention. I'm going to spread things out quite a bit through both of these offenses, as I really do believe this one has the makings of a shootout. My only real correlation in this matchup is that if you're playing a QB at the captain/MVP spot, I would correlate them with at least two of their pass-catchers, and I wouldn't play more than one running back in more than 25% of your lineups. I'll most likely have a few hedge lineups that will have Williams/CEH or Williams/Williams, but I'll be very underweight on those particular pairings.
Enjoy your Sunday night, and good luck, everyone!
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