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We've got a monster Saturday coming up with 51 FBS vs. FBS games this week. We had a busy week before Saturday, but not like next week. I'll be serving up all kinds of picks and bets along with your Holiday meals next week, but I'm getting ahead of myself. We're here to win on these 51 games. I started 4-2 this week, so I'm feeling pretty good.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year.
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
(7)Michigan State at (4)Ohio State(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's nearly 20 points between fourth and seventh? Tell me again about how wonderful playoff expansion would be. If you're telling me that there's this big of a gap between four and seven – and with more than half the bets currently on the Buckeyes, that's what the public is saying – there is no GOOD reason for playoff expansion. I can't think of one instance since we expanded to four teams where we needed a fifth. This year is no different. We don't need a two-loss team to have a shot at a Championship. I still think this is a bit high, but I also expect the Buckeyes to take care of business by ten points or so here.
(10)Wake Forest at Clemson(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
If you really think that Clemson is going to win this game –by more than a field goal, no less – then you haven't been watching their offense. The defense is legit, but they struggled to move the ball at times against UConn. As much as I rag on Wake's defense, even they're not as bad at UConn. Give me Wake straight up!
Iowa State at (13)Oklahoma(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The bottom has fallen out of this line. It's down five points already. If you're thinking of laying on the Sooners, wait until early tomorrow morning. I'm betting you can find it at -2.5 by the time it kicks. You shouldn't be able to. No-loss November is no longer a thing, but Oklahoma still hasn't lost back-to-back regular season games since 1999. BOOMER!
New Mexico State at Kentucky(-35.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
How big is the gap between Kentucky and Bama? Alabama just beat the Aggies by 56 last week. Kentucky needs to be them by 20 less. That's doable. Give me the Wildcats.
Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Owls are in a tailspin right now. All Bailey Zappe does is make us long for a time when a guy like Steve McNair could win the Heisman. No one's talking about Zappe and this WKU offense, but his numbers are as good as anyone. Give me the Hilltoppers.
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Florida State at Boston College(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jordan Travis has the Seminoles looking pretty good right now. Phil Jurkovec wont make the freshman mistakes that Tyler Van Dyke did last week. This is going to be a very good game, but I have to think BC finds a way to win at home.
Purdue(-11.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That Northwestern defense is still a problem. I'll take Purdue.
Rutgers at Penn State(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels a bit high. Penn State has lost four of five and didn't even cover this against Maryland. This feels like a shadow of the team that beat Auburn. Rutgers hung with the Michigan team that just escaped Penn State last weekend. I expect a low-scoring game, so I'll take Rutgers.
Massachusetts at Army(-36.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Yuck! Army will really have to work to cover this, but the Minutemen just lost to FCS Maine by 25 last week. I'll take Army.
Texas at West Virginia(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Texas scored 56 points last week and lost to Kansas......at home! Give me the Mountaineers. As iffy as they have looked, even they didn't lose to Kansas. It might just be because they haven't played them, but I'll stick to the Mountaineers. Leddie Brown is going to be a huge problem for the Longhorns and the loss of Bijan Robinson is a major blow.
South Florida at Tulane(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really like the way the Bulls move the ball with Timmy McClain under center. They also have some talent at in the backfield with him. I'll take the Bulls outright in the Big Easy.
Kent State(-13.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If there's MACtion on a Saturday with 50 other games going on, does anyone notice? Considering the game is only on ESPN+, probably not. Hey, you're the jokers that didn't want your game featured on one of the ESPN networks on Wednesday. Too bad. I'm looking forward to Kent blowing a lead in the third quarter again and losing outright to the Zips.....
Texas State at Coastal Carolina(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Judging by that line, it seems as though Vegas thinks Grayson McCall will play. Why would he? CCU has almost no shot at making the Fun Belt Championship and they will get a bowl invite anyway. Why risk it? I'm taking Texas State, but there is no way I would bet this. If McCall plays, I'm flipping.
Illinois at (17)Iowa(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There is no Bret Bielema on the sidelines for the Illini this week and not having Spencer Petras for the Hawkeyes is addition by subtraction. Give me Iowa.
Arkansas State at Georgia State(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels a touch inflated for the Panthers taking out CCU last week without McCall. If Layne Hatcher could show any consistency, the Red Wolves have a shot to take this outright. That's a huge if though. I still think this feels a bit high. I'll take Arkansas State.
Georgia Tech at (8)Notre Dame(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
If you're going to bet this, shop around. I've seen it as low as 15 and as high as 19. I feel much better about this at -16.5. Yes, I think it might come down to that half. Notre Dame has looked good enough to cover this and bad enough to lose outright at different times this year. The bad news is that Georgia Tech's consistency is nearly as bad. What the hell, this feels high. Give me the Bees!
Washington(-6.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I will admit that I thought this line would be higher. You would barely recognize either team as the same ones wearing their uniforms a month or so ago. Washington lost at home to Montana earlier this year. The Ralphies got shut out by a Minnesota team on their third-string running back. Both offenses look a lot better now and I am expecting a good game. Brenden Lewis is still hard for me to trust though. I'll take Washington.
(21)Arkansas at (2)Alabama(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow. That feels high. However, Arkansas has had trouble moving the ball since the Ole Miss game. They only scored 16 – that includes overtime – against a maligned LSU defense last week. I have to take the Tide until Arkansas proves that they are worth betting on again.
SMU at (5)Cincinnati(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The bottom has fallen out of this one too. It's down five points already, and with good reason. The Bearcats haven't covered a spread in more than a month. I think that trend continues. SMU's offense arguably the best one Cincy has faced so far.
(6)Michigan(-15.5) at Maryland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This Michigan defensive line is going to tee off on Taulia because Maryland can't run to save their souls......or their quarterback's life. Give me Michigan. They might pitch a shutout here.
Nebraska at (15)Wisconsin(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This feels low. Wisconsin has Nebraska's number. Starting with the 2012 Big Ten(14) Championship game, the Badgers have rattled off seven straight wins against Nebraska. Only two of those have been by less than 17 points. This is in Madison too. I see this getting ugly. Give me the Badgers.
Virginia at (18)Pittsburgh(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Pitt says they expect the nation's leader passer, Brennan Armstrong, to play. Vegas doesn't seem to think so. The Cavs wont lose this by three scores if Armstrong is anywhere close to 100%. Not surprisingly, the Hoos are being quiet about this. Give me Virginia, but I don't trust anything about this line until we have concrete word whether Armstrong is in or not.
UAB at (22)UTSA(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is going to be a tough one for the Roadrunners. I'm not saying they can't win. This team did oust Memphis in the Liberty Bowl and Western Kentucky in Bowling Green. The Blazers are playing well right now and the Roadrunners were tied with 33-point dog Southern Miss last week with five minutes to play. Were they just looking ahead? I think so. There's a lot of talent on this UTSA offense. Enough to cover this. Meep Meep!
Marshall(-14.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We're going to see a big game from Rasheen Ali here. Give me the Herd.
Old Dominion at Middle Tennessee State(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Monarchs, after not beating a FBS opponents since 2018, have won three in a row in Conference USA. The Blue Raiders hung half a hundred on FIU last week. I think the ODU win streak stops here, but I thought that last week too. Take that for what you will.
Minnesota(-7.5) at Indiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I really don't like that half, but Indiana just got thumped by bottom-feeder Rutgers last week. I have to take the Gophers.
East Carolina(-3.5) at Navy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Pop quiz: Which team still has a chance at a bowl berth? If you said Navy, you owe me a Guinness. I'm surprised that the Pirates are favored in Annapolis though. I want to believe, but I'm not sure this ECU defense is good enough to stop this option. I'll take Navy.
Appalachian State(-9.5) at Troy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I still trust App State a lot more than Troy. I like this for under ten points. Give me the Mountaineers.
(14)BYU(-19.5) at Georgia Southern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
BYU feels pretty safe now that the offense is firing on all cylinders. Georgia Southern will limit their possessions, but I just don't see them hanging around here. Give me the Cougars.
Syracuse at (20)North Carolina State(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
With as bad as the Orange looked last week, this looks low. The issue is that we know Clemson's defense is good. I'm not sure about the Wolfpack. I'll take N.C. State. The Orange can't throw with any kind of success when they get behind.
Florida(-8.5) at Missouri
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
No chance. These are the two worst run defenses in the SEC. Tyler Badie is one of the best backs in the country. The Gators gave up 42 to Samford in the first half last week and 52 overall. Missouri should be able to hang that on them. I like Missouri outright, but I really don't see them losing by more than a touchdown even if they blow it.
Rice at UTEP(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That loss in Denton last week hurts the Miners, but they should get back on track here. Give me UTEP.
Connecticut at Central Florida(-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Knights have done their job and dominated lesser teams, even without Dillon Gabriel. UConn certainly qualifies as lesser. Give me UCF.
Louisiana at Liberty(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know about this one. The Cajuns don't always look good, but they have only lost one game. Give me Louisiana.
Kansas at TCU(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hey now, Kansas likes playing in Texas. They don't go quite as far south this time around, but TCU got absolutely annihilated by Oklahoma State last week. This is way too many! Give me Kansas. I won't say this is the beginning of a win streak, but they should be able to keep this relatively close.
Temple at Tulsa(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Dust Devils aren't really built to cover a line like this, but the Owls are still bottom-five material. Give me Tulsa.
UCLA(-3.5) at USC
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low. USC almost beating Stanford is one thing. It's quite another to hang with a tough and talented UCLA team. Give me the Bruins by a lot more than this!
(11)Baylor at Kansas State(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Alllllllrighty then. I don't buy this at all! I buy Baylor. Bears outright!
Auburn(-7.5) at South Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Gamecocks couldn't even take out the embattled Missouri defense. Give me Auburn.
North Texas(-10.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I really don't like that half. FIU is winless against FBS opponents and should stay that way. Give me North Texas, but I'm lowering the bet.
California(-1.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
"The Game" is relegated to the Pac 12 network this year. Crazy, huh? Stanford has gone belly-up since losing to Oregon and Cal is just......Cal. They lost to Arizona and had a COVID outbreak on a fully vaccinated team. This is Cal's first game back, and I'm really nervous to try and bet on them. They'll be well-rested, at least. Give me Cal.
(3)Oregon at (23)Utah(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That tells you exactly how Vegas feels about Oregon. Utah is the kind of team that can give Oregon trouble, but considering the Ducks looked good against a solid Washington State team, I'm willing to take them here. I like Utah, but that Arizona game worried me. Give me Duck U.
Vanderbilt at (12)Mississippi(-36.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's the annual cupcake week for the SEC. Ole Miss decided to take their cupcake in-conference, thank you. To put this in perspective, Ole Miss is favored against Vandy by more than Kentucky is favored against New Mexico State. I still think the Rebels cover this though.
South Alabama at Tennessee(-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Vols are going to give USA all sorts of problems with their offense, but the Jags are getting Jake Bentley back this week. They should be able to score some points. Tennessee is going to win, and comfortably. By how much though? This is tough. Give me Tennessee, I guess.
Virginia Tech at Miami(FL)(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That loss to Florida State has to sting for the Hurricanes. It might even sting enough to affect them going forward. Well, they are playing Virginia Tech, so even if it does, it wont be enough to lose this. Give me Miami.
(9)Oklahoma State(-9.5) at Texas Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place, but I trust that Oklahoma State defense. Give me the Cowboys.
Wyoming at Utah State(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low.....like really low. Logan Bonner is flourishing now that his teammates are now familiar with the offense. Give me the Aggies.
Louisiana-Monroe at LSU(-29.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Ugh....no. I don't trust either team. However, LSU holding Arkansas to 16 points last week is their best defensive performance since 2019. Maybe then can hold the Warhawks down. Give me LSU.
New Mexico at Boise State(-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
We'll do a simple math problem: Boise State+100-yard rusher=win. Give me the Broncos.
Arizona State(-2.5) at Oregon State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I trust the Beavers, especially at home, a hell of a lot more than the Sun Devils. Give me Oregon State.
Colorado State(-2.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Mainland teams struggle on the Islands. It's a thing. Give me Hawaii outright.
I have 26 two-pointers for the second straight week. I went a little lower with 11 ones. The 15 three-pointers are about average. My six four-point bets tie for the most on the season and the four max bets are my second highest total. I'm done messing around! Time to rattle off one of those big weeks that has been fleeting this year.
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