NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 11) - Targets and Avoids

The Kansas City Chiefs are back. I wrote in my Week 8 column, there would not be a better chance to buy low on the Chiefs. It was after their 27-3 drubbing by the Titans. Since then, they've won three straight. It's been ugly; they barely beat the Giants, eked by a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers, before dominating the Raiders Sunday night. It goes to show how much overreacting is done during the football season. It is such a long season, can you even remember the Packers lost 38-3 to the Saints in Week 1? Teams will go into a rut and then be the complete opposite in a matter of two or three games.

If you've made it through 10 weeks of survivor, you deserve a round of applause. It was a relatively easy first several weeks to the season but the last three weeks have been a bloodbath. Heading into Week 8 of my pool, there were 1,643 left. Heading into Week 11, 185 entrants remain. This past week started off with the Ravens losing to Miami, the Bucs then lost Washington, and the Steelers tied Detroit. Carnage.

For those who are not familiar, all season long I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. Strategy is a major part of winning this pool and this article will help you through the season so let's start with that. 

Teams favored by 7+ in Week 11

Lines are consensus from The Action Network; Bucs -11 vs. Giants, Titans -10.5 vs. Texans, Browns -10 vs. Lions, Bills -7 vs. Colts,

Teams on bye this week; Broncos, Rams

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 11

Bucs -11 vs. Giants

After two straight clunkers for Tampa, they get a chance to rebound in a big way on Monday Night Football. Tom Brady will not play poorly for a third straight game. The Bucs average 31 points per game while the Giants average 19.9. New York will play well off a bye, but they won't be able to keep up with the Bucs.

Bucs 27 - Giants 17

Browns -10 vs. Lions 

Cleveland will win this game with their running game. They average 154.1 yards on the ground, first in the league, while the Lions are 30th against the run allowing 135.7 yard per game. Once the Browns get ahead, they will control the clock, play good defense, and, of course, run the ball. Jared Goff is so bad in cold windy weather. In Pittsburgh Sunday, Goff was 14/25 for 112 yards.

Browns 26 - Lions 16

Bills -7 vs. Colts

Buffalo is back. It's always nice to play the Jets after two bad performances. The Bills will be too much for the Colts to handle. Indy has not had a true road game against a real team all season and Carson Wentz will be in for a surprise Buffalo.

Bills 34 - Colts 17

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Titans -10.5 vs. Texans

Since Derrick Henry was knocked out with a knee injury, Tennessee has had two games in a row with bad offensive outputs. In their last three games, they're averaging 4.4 yards per play, which ranks them tied for 29th in the league. Their third-down offense has went from top half of the league to bottom half in that time. The Titans were bailed out by one of the worst roughing the passer calls  which wiped away an interception the end zone.

The Texans are off a bye. There's not much to say to their advantage. They are statistically awful, but I think the Titans have a letdown game here with a trip to Foxborough on deck.

Texans 20 - Titans 19

49ers -6.5 at Jaguars

San Francisco is off a big Monday night win against their division rivals. Now they have to travel to Jacksonville for an early 1 p.m. game. The Niners need to run the ball to have success. In their last three games, the Jaguars are allowing 89 rushing yards per game, eighth in the league. Jacksonville is also playing a lot tougher recently. They looked dead when they were down 17-0 to the Colts in the first quarter, but after that point, it was all Jaguars. They battled back and and had the ball late down six, but Trevor Lawrence fumbled it.

Jaguars 24 - 49ers 20

Best Bets

• Texans +10.5 at Titans
• Bengals -1 at Raiders - As I said last week, the Raiders are going on a long losing streak. Cincy is a road favorite off a bye. Teams in that position are hitting at 64% against the spread the past decade.
• Jaguars +6.5 vs. 49ers

Running Totals

• Last week: 2-1
• 2021 season total: 14-15-1
• 2020 season total: 24-27
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

More Weekly Lineup Prep

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