RADIO
The NHL season approaches the end of week number four! Some hockey trends have established themselves but many are still to come. As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, November 13th, 2021 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 11/13
We feature a 12 game slate, headlined by Winnipeg, Carolina, Philadelphia, Battle of Florida, Toronto, and yes Vegas versus Vancouver. The lock is at 7:00 which means obviously the afternoon games get their own separate DFS slate.
There is some news worth mentioning. Watch out for injuries and sadly much illness (not all COVID-related). Finally, goaltending confirmations and further injury news will be scrutinized heavily on social media. Oh, and yes Nashville plays an unrested Arizona team so expect a ton of chaos.
The goal will be to keep things as simple as possible. Our focus will be as much on interactions on social media and in chatrooms. This is because news and numbers have become that fluid now. Everything changes at a breakneck pace.
NHL DFS Goalies
Elvis Merzilkins - DK $7.5K || FD $7.2K
Opponent - New York Rangers
The question is do you love a free square? Absolutely. Merzlikins has one not-so-good performance against the New York Rangers (33 saves on 37 shots) and the DFS world turns on him. Yes, New York and Columbus played a one-sided game last time but the Columbus goaltender at home has some interesting prospects. Again, take a look at that salary. That makes placing Merzlikins even in a few lineups almost necessary. The Columbus goaltending has won all five home starts while allowing just eight goals on 162 shots.
Alex Nedeljkovic - DK $7.8K || FD $6.9K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
The Detroit Red Wings "1A" goaltender is projected to start on Saturday night with an attractive salary on DraftKings given Montreal's propensity to pad goalie stats. His salary on FanDuel is almost heinous. Throw out the first game against Tampa earlier in the season and Alex Nedeljkovic has given up three or fewer goals in every single appearance since. Montreal can score goals with their top-six so this does involve some risk. However, the Detroit goaltender has been solid in net for the most part. It would be wise to at least roster the goaltender on FanDuel.
Filip Gustavsson - DK $7.4K || FD $6.7K
Opponent - Pittsburgh Penguins
The risk of playing a goaltender with a short-handed team in front of him is mitigated by the value in the salary. Let this sink in. The Pittsburgh Penguins are playing load and travel management due to Ottawa's COVID issues (eight players in some form of protocol at press time). At the very least, Filip Gustavsson expects to face at least 30 shots and maybe 35+. That puts the DraftKings saves bonus in play. Look at Friday night where so many took advantage of Carter Hart's venue-based salary. Also, no one is going to own Gustavsson on a mass-quantity basis.
Please watch for late-breaking goaltender confirmations during the early evening. This will allow you to be ready to make pivots as needed.
NHL DFS Centers
J.T. Compher - DK $5.1K || FD $5.3K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
The idea is crazy but think about this. J.T. Compher is averaging just four fewer DFS points than Nathan MacKinnon. How the heck is that possible? The numbers do not lie. Maybe Compher has figured it out finally. Either way, he is averaging a real-world point a game. The plus is that Compher is playing just over 19 minutes a night. So, the chances are there. With lower salaries prevalent this Saturday, finding the right bargain will be essential. The best news is that Compher is now listed as a pure center across the board. That dropped his salary on DraftKings too. Playing at home versus San Jose is a very good matchup. Watch for the load and travel management with Pittsburgh as some head to Ottawa and some may not. Ottawa centers could gain value.
Nicolas Roy - DK $4.0K || FD $3.6K
Opponent - Vancouver Canucks
DraftKings and FanDuel finally have one of those it should go "ham" matchups in Vegas as the Vancouver Canucks head there to play a hot Golden Knights team. Nicolas Roy still has ample opportunity to see some power-play time and that coveted top-six role. He has six points in his last nine games and is averaging three scoring chances a contest in that span. Roy's FanDuel salary is basically that of a minimum bottom-six player honestly. With a huge slate, we tilt a spotlight more on these value choices for Saturday night. Again, please understand players like Cody Sillinger and Evan Rodrigues are out there from Columbus and Pittsburgh respectively. They may both be worth a look as well.
Nick Suzuki - DK $5.2K || FD $6.9K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Centers tend to do pretty well in this spot lately. Someone in DFS figured out Nick Suzuki is still pretty good. How much more scary would Suzuki be if his linemates could even pot a few more of the opportunities he can create. Detroit gives up the second-most DFS points to centers in the NHL Suzuki also comes in at a reasonable salary as well (especially on DraftKings). He has 22 shots, four goals, and nine points in his last five games. This is the center that most expected at the start of the season. Some will be concerned about this but Suzuki absolutely can thrive against a team like Detroit. Ride the wave here. The studs are nice but it will be your depth that buoys one to glory.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Matthews (DK $9.2K || FD $9.5K), Kopitar (DK $7.3K || FD $8.3K). DuBous (DK $4.9K || FD $5.4K -- Copp more expensive), Bennett (DK $4.6K || FD $6,3K). The key is to watch pricing discrepancies now that we are five weeks into the NHL season.
NHL DFS Wings
Matt Duchene- DK $5.9K || FD $5.8K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
There are so many ideas here and the only thing worse than the Arizona Coyotes may be Arizona on the back end of a back-to-back. Matt Duchene has seven goals and 13 points in his last ten games. It is crazy to keep riding the wave but Duchene against a team that cannot help to take penalties is there. Furthermore, Duchene's shots on goal per game are up to 3.1. This is a level few have seen since his prime years. This is why sometimes it pays to take a flyer. Duchene's salary is rising too fast, however. This may be the last week that the winger carries value.
Kyle Connor - DK $7.4K || FD $8.7K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
This is one that could be a real helper to DFS lineups. Now, this is because, at some point, Kyle Connor against a Kings team without Drew Doughty and Sean Walker is a good proposition especially given the Los Angeles schedule. The Kings have been able to defy these odds but Winnipeg is daunting, to say the least. Connor just has too much shot bonus potential on DraftKings against Los Angeles. There is another player below with that kind of possibility as well. Connor also on the man advantage could be an attractive proposition. How long can Jonathan Quick play like prime Quick? That time could start to run out on Saturday night.
William Nylander - DK $7.7K || FD $7.7K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
There are lots of possibilities and even Claude Giroux (@ Dallas) as a counter here. However, William Nylander apparently loves playing against the Buffalo Sabres much like the Boston Bruins). That being said, the winger is finding more and more value as the one who shoots the puck more once again. He now has 4+ shots and at least a point in six consecutive games. Imagine that for a second. William Nylander is a consistent, almost undervalued threat in spite of his salary. Buffalo is unrested like Toronto which could pave the way for a higher-scoring game. That benefits DFS, of course. His four shots per game average are on the level of an elite sniper. Nylander has seven goals in 15 games on the season and this may be the tip of an iceberg.
Lucas Raymond - DK $5.1K || FD $5.6K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
This is one of the safer plays on the slate Saturday night. The Montreal Canadiens have had a tendency of giving up goals against the flow of play. Lucas Raymond (still near DFS average salary) excels in this role and that is partly why a speedy winger like him has to be utilized somewhere in lineups. Cost relief is cost relief but more importantly, there is that shot release. Raymond changes angles like Joe Sakic and quickly. This ten-game slate is one to take some bigger shots than usual. Montreal is still in some real trouble, honestly. They are struggling. It is interesting because Tyler Bertuzzi and Dylan Larkin will help players like Raymond and even Moritz Seider one more time.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Bjorkstrand (DK $6.5K || FD $6.7K, Eberle (DK $4.9K || FD $5.7K), Iafallo (DK $5.3K || FD $5.8K), Guentzel (DK $6.8K || FD $7.2K), Giroux (DK $6.9K || FD $6.5K). Artemi Panarin could be looked at as a filer to take even with his bloated salary.
NHL DFS Defensemen
Bowen Byram - DK $5.5K || FD $4.4K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
While the injuries and inconsistency are the order of the day, the biggest constant this season on defense has been change? That's right. Byram almost succumbed to an injury himself after he was elbowed in the head on Thursday night against Vancouver. Tucker Poolman was suspended for two games (not surprising). Byram still has a solid price, particularly on FanDuel. With the long-term consequences of a COVID outbreak, a team like Colorado can benefit a little more than usual. That is the cold reality. Byram against those lower-tiered forwards and defensemen of San Jose can be a worthwhile assessment. For some reason, if Byram cannot play, there is Mario Ferraro as a safe, floor type of play.
Nic Hague - DK $3.9K || FD $4.0K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
A week ago, people wondered why to buy low on Nic Hague. Now, his percentage ownership is rising. He has four points in his last six games but can provide an excellent floor at times. The ten shots and 11 scoring chances in that span are a bonus. This could be a higher-scoring game than most expect. These two teams do not like each other and expect fireworks early! Seattle has struggled for the offense of late while Vancouver is starting to find it as they are playing better over the past few weeks. Hague is still a value play as long as Zach Whitecloud is on the Injured Reserve.
Neal Pionk - DK $5.0K || FD $5.0K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
Give me all the risks on Saturday evening. The warm winds blow into the Winnipeg valleys as Neal Pionk has five helpers and two goals in his last eight games. This is ultimate high-risk because the defenseman does not block a ton of shots and misses quite a few on the offensive end. However, when he connects, he connects. The Los Angeles Kings are not a bastion of defense and Winnipeg plays a style that can at least heighten the pace which creates more floor opportunities. Even the Kings should give in to this pace on Saturday night. Also, note that Pionk has 21 scoring chances created in the last half dozen contests. Several Winnipeg defenders are in play.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Seider (DK $5.0K || FD $4.2K), Ellis (DK $5.7K || FD $5.6K), Dumba (DK $6.2K || FD $4.7K), Burns (DK $7.4K || FD $6.3K), Gostisbehere (DK $4.8K || FD $5,0K). Watch to see if Ryan Ellis does play. Also, DraftKings prices are inflated for top defensemen. Please be advised.
TOP Power Play Lines/Stacks for Saturday
- WPG 1
- DAL 1 (they have to score, right?)
- FLA 1 or TBL 1 (when the goals are bound to happen)
- TOR 1 (Get me the Nylander)
- NSH 1 or CAR 1
- VGK 1 (Always find a way to sneak players in against the Vancouver penalty kill).
Chris’s Line Stack of the Day
MIN: Kaprizov-Eklund Ek-Dumba (Do it one more time!)
Obvious Stack
WPG: Scheifele/Ehlers-Connor-Pionk
Less Obvious Stack
NSH: Duchene-Kunin-Granlund (maybe sneak Josi in on FD)
Sneaky Stack
NJD: Barbashev-Hertl-Balcers
Please keep in mind that there will be many shifts in lines with most teams especially early. Between COVID, some late injuries, and all sorts of load and travel management, it will be another chaotic Saturday evening. That is what makes it fun.
NHL Player News and Updates
More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis
