NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 10) - Targets and Avoids

Favorites were winning an unprecedented clip. It was bound to happen. NFL doomsday. It’s the one week where favorites go down. Some didn’t just go down, but rather got knocked out. The biggest shock was Buffalo losing in Jacksonville. Other surprises included the Cowboys getting rolled by the Broncos and Rams dominated by the Titans. Additional favorites to lose; Saints, Raiders, Bengals, and 49ers. The only favorites to cover were the Colts, Falcons, Patriots, Dolphins, and Chargers. Another favorite that could've lost were the Ravens who found themselves down big against the Vikings but came back to win in overtime. Who would’ve thought the only favorites to win decisively would be Colts, Patriots, and Dolphins. Football.

Survivor pools were decimated in Week 9. My pool had more than 50 percent of remaining entrants eliminated. 31 percent had the Cowboys, 10 percent on the Bills (including me). The Saints, Raiders, and Niners eliminated about 70 more combined. It was an extremely disappointing end to a survivor pool for those with Buffalo. How could the Bills lose to a Jacksonville team that just lost 24-0 in Seattle. And it's not like the Jags even scored a touchdown. Not one touchdown was scored in the game! There's no such thing as a lock in the NFL.

For those who are not familiar, all season long I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. Strategy is a major part of winning this pool and this article will help you through the season so let's start with that. 

Teams favored by 7+ in Week 10

Lines are consensus from The Action Network; Bills -13 at Jets, Colts -10.5 vs. Jaguars, Cardinals -10 vs. Panthers, Cowboys -9 vs. Falcons, Bucs -9.5 at Washington, Steelers -9.5 vs. Lions. Ravens -7.5 at Dolphins

Teams on bye this week; Bears, Bengals, Giants, Texans

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 10

Bills -13 at Jets

Buffalo has to rebound right? Their defense has been the unit playing really well lately. They rank  first in opponent yards per play, seventh in the last three games, first in getting off the field in the third down, and first in opponent red zone scoring percentage (TD only). Their offense is 19th in yards per play over the last three mightily struggling against Dolphins and Jaguars. Well, if there's one defense to get the offense right it's the Jets. Did you see the holes the Colts were running through last Thursday night? The Jets defense has given up 7.4 yards per play through their last three, nearly a full yard worse than the next team. If Buffalo doesn't get it right in this one, then we can start worrying.

Bills 34 - Jets 17

Bucs -9.5 at Washington 

My favorite trend is back in play with Tampa, road favorite off a bye. The Bucs may be the one team in the NFL with no major flaws on either side of the ball. Their defense is statically good while their offense is great. If Washington didn't fix their defense up during the bye week, then this game is only going to get worse for them. Washington's only hope is if Chase Young can pressure Tom Brady.

Bucs 37 - Washington 20

Cardinals -10 vs. Panthers

Arizona may be the best team in football. Even without Kyler Murray, they still dominate the 49ers. Their defense is ranked seventh in opponent yards per play and second in opponent third down conversions. Carolina comes in with an offense that's been in a major rut; 3.9 yards per play in their last three, dead last in the league.

Cardinals 26 - Panthers 13

Cowboys -9 vs. Falcons

Last week for Dallas could have very likely been a one-off. The Cowboys were off an emotional Sunday night win in Minnesota and took Denver too lightly. But if that's true, they need to take care off business against the Falcons. Atlanta's defense loves to cough up leads. They almost blew games to the Dolphins and Saints in two of the last three weeks. Their defense is 30th on third down. Dallas's offense is fourth in that department. That could be the difference here.

Cowboys 31 - Falcons 23

Ravens -7.5 at Dolphins

Baltimore usually dominates bad teams. Miami doesn't have much time to prepare for Lamar Jackson since this game is Thursday night. I think this game will be a low-scoring ugly affair.

Ravens 20 - Dolphins 10

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Steelers -9.5 vs. Detroit

This feels like the game Mike Tomlin loses year after year. Pittsburgh is 5-3 with a chance to go to 6-3. Just incredible when you think how inept their offense can be at times. They average 20.1 points per game, 23rd in the league. Their secondary is not good and got exposed by Justin Fields and the Bears Sunday night. If the Steelers pass rush doesn't get home, they're in big trouble. Well, the Lions have a very good offensive line and if they can keep Jared Goff protected, Pittsburgh is in for a scare.

Steelers 19 - Lions 17

Best Bets

• Chiefs -2.5 at Raiders - I get the feeling Vegas is about to go on a long losing streak. Patrick Mahomes will put together a vintage game on Sunday Night Football to show everyone there's nothing wrong with him.
• Rams -4 at 49ers - The Rams were just embarrassed on Sunday Night Football. They'll bounce back.
• Patriots -1.5 vs. Browns - New England is winning games decisively and their quarterback isn't even playing all that well. If he has a good game, then everything will be clicking.

Running Totals

• Last week: 3-0
• 2021 season total: 12-14-1
• 2020 season total: 24-27
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

More Weekly Lineup Prep

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