RADIO
Saturday was a mixed bag of results as we hit the Celtics spread at +4.5 thanks in part to a big comeback in the second half by Boston. And then the Lakers fell flat on their faces in the late game, scoring only 12 points in the first quarter and seeing their superstar Anthony Davis leave after only seven minutes. That over was doomed from the start and without AD, the Lakers were handled by the Blazers in a fifteen-point loss. The 1-2 mark on Saturday brings my standings back .500 on the season when you count the parlays and teasers (which I do!)
Remember, even with 9-10 games worth of data now for each team, we should be careful these first few weeks with those bets and stay within your limits. The more data we get, the better I'll feel about the reliability of the models, so let's just have some fun and keep those bets small at first. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, November 8th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 15-15
- Against the Spread 8-3
- Over/Under 5-4
- Teasers/Parlays 2-8
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just FYI, but if I was then I would have gone 4-1 last night, ha. So maybe I should count them on the days they do well but not on other days (just kidding).
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted only two spots where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
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This article has been updated since it first came out, make sure you check for updates in BOLD.
NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
New York Knicks (+4) @ Philadelphia 76ers (212 total)
No Ben Simmons, no Tobias Harris, no problem! The Sixers are streaking right now with six straight wins and the most impressive part has been the fact they have been doing it with Joel Embiid and a bunch of role players. Two of those recent wins were impressive victories against a good Bulls team and this Philly squad just keeps finding a way to get it done.
Meanwhile, the Knicks have been trending in the other direction having lost three of their last four after their hot start to the year. They did beat Giannis and the Bucks last Thursday but Milwaukee has been without a large chunk of their roster and their three recent losses to Toronto, Indiana and then Cleveland last night has to make us question if they are as good as they looked early on.
Give me the Sixers to cover at home, they've been better on both sides of the ball this year and New York is on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Sixers are now 7-3 ATS this season while the Knicks have dropped to 5-5. I have Philly winning by 10, but I wouldn't want to lay more than five points here as I do have a lot of respect for New York.
I also like the over here as it's the biggest discrepancy in the model and Knicks games going over is a sneaky trend I have been playing this year as they actually have the highest margin in the NBA of 9.2 points over their totals so far this year. Two picks for the price of one!
UPDATE: Joel Embiid has been ruled out and this line has moved drastically towards the Knicks. That makes the Sixers are very risky bet, so I am withdrawing them from the official card, BUT we are staying on the over as Philly's defense takes a major hit without Embiid.
The Pick: Over 212 points (good up to 214.5) -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
Atlanta Hawks (3.5) @ Golden State Warriors (222 total)
I'm sure I am not the only NBA analyst out there who feels like the Warriors look like one of the best teams in basketball. At 8-1, they have the best record in the Western Conference and the scariest thing is they have been doing it without Klay Thompson who is one of the best three-point shooters the league has ever seen.
Even on nights when Steph Curry isn't doing magical things - like last night - the Warriors are dominating their competition on the strength of their defense and contributions from other scorers like Jordan Poole (25 points last night) and Andrew Wiggins. Their bench is deep, too, with veterans Otto Porter Jr, Andre Igoudala, and Nemanja Bjelica anchoring an excellent second unit.
Golden State has been so dominant this year and leads the league in margin of victory, winning by an average of 13.7 points! This just feels like Atlanta is getting too much credit here as most books give the home team three points - that means these teams are being viewed as fairly equal? Golden State is better in every way possible way and I have them winning by double digits. This is an easy play, today, ride the hot streak and back the best team in basketball.
The Pick: GSW -3.5, -105 DraftKings Sportsbook
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Charlotte Hornets (+2) @ Los Angeles Lakers (226 total)
While I got burned on the Lakers over last time, I am not going to shy away from going back to it here. We have a perfect recipe for an over in this game as both teams are playing incredibly fast this year and I have this game pegged for a 106 projected pace tonight.
This version of the Lakers hasn't been good, especially on defense. And the Hornets have been involved in some high-scoring affairs this year with eight of their 11 games going over the total. The Lakers are also 5-5 on overs this year, so this one sets up to favor more points than fewer points for sure.
With the Hornets being on the second half of a back-to-back I have a little more confidence than usual in the over. They've played two games in this situation this year with both games going over by a combined margin of 23.8 points. The Lakers are banged up, but they have plenty of guys who can score and I think they do their part and help us get across the finish line tonight.
The Pick: OVER 226 (good up to 228), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
Toss the spreads out of the window, here are three teams I expect to win, and parlaying these money lines together gets us to a nice +338 odds. The Warriors are 5-1 at home, Philly is 4-1 at home and Miami is 3-1 on the road. These are some of the best teams in the league and I think they all win today. I was tempted to add the Bulls, but let's keep it at three teams today and I need a parlay win for the overall record in the worst way!
UPDATE: If we take the Sixers out of the ML parlay, you can still get the Warriors/Heat at +192.
The Pick: Miami//GSW Moneyline parlay (+192 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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Instead of my positional stat matrix, today I included my team stat matrix for your prop betting needs! Each value here is the difference between the stats allowed by each team when compared to the league average.
For example, Atlanta gives us 32+ more assists to opposing teams than the league average.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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