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Sunday afternoon features the season finale at Phoenix Raceway. The NASCAR Cup Series Championship is raced on a 1-mile short track (312 laps in all). Monkey Knife Fight has an extremely easy fantasy point system: 0.1 points for each lap led and then a set amount of points for their position (20 for 1st place, 19 for 2nd place, 18 for 3rd, and so on).
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We'll be helping you along every day and night where there's a race, by providing you with expert prop picks all NASCAR season long here at RotoBaller.
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Pick 1: Rapidfire Time Pick The Correct Drivers
As promised, the shots we are taking with RapidFire keep on continuing. This week at Phoenix Raceway is our last shot. It is hard to believe we are here after 35 races. Alas, we are here.
The Championship 4, brings aboard a different mindset. Forgive us, for the season finale column, is a bit shorter than usual. First off, we wanted to thank everyone for sticking with us this season. It has been a fun but profitable one. This has been great and with all the people we have met this year along the way, I just wanted to also say thank you.
At any rate, let us get back to business.
The idea that Chase Elliott is giving up 1.5 points on a track where he is historically pretty good at is baffling. Now, the problem with that is this. Elliott is going up against Martin Truex Jr. is one of the best on these types of tracks. Most underestimate the No. 19 car but he has some solid 10 and 15-lap practice intervals going into Sunday. One caveat. Do not worry about where these drivers qualify.
We planned to take Martin Truex Jr and the points all along.
Then, there is that Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson debate. This is not an even matchup. Monkey Knife Fight may have gone a bit extra with Hamlin getting 2.5 points. However, from a risk aversion standpoint, this makes perfect sense. Now, people can see whatever they want to. However, Kyle Larson has nine wins. Denny Hamlin has two wins and several top 5's during the Chase.
Last week, Larson found a win to win again for his ninth win of the season. Few could believe that the No. 5 car would just find a way to not only win but then hold off everyone again. One has to hand it to the Hendrick Motorsport Racing driver. Kyle Larson does find ways to just keep snatching a win from the jaws of defeat. He will try almost anything if it works. The problem is at Martinsville, Kyle Larson does not have the lift and speed with this version of the 750HP package.
Martin Truex Jr. carries that lift and has a win in his last seven appearances at Phoenix. That also comes with five top-ten results. The No. 18 car leads in lap led on this track with a percentage of just about 22.5. Now. Truex driving the No. 19 has led less than 4% of the laps.
So, it's a risky bet here on both fronts and a bet on the underdogs is worth a shot. If it feels like the pattern flip flops every week, one is not wrong. Also, hey it worked last week.
The Sunday afternoon picks are Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin with the points!
RapidFire Picks: Martin Truex Jr. (+1.5), Denny Hamlin (+2.5)
Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight
Pick 2: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Martin Truex Jr. MORE 17.5 Fantasy Points, Chase Elliott LESS 18.5 Fantasy Points
This prop here worked out for once albeit narrowly and because of some laps led which could be best described as lucky. Either way, things ended well.
Anyway, we get Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr. for the final MKF prop of the season. Give Monkey Knife Fight a lot of credit here, they saved one of the best for last. This will be difficult and it can go either way.
These point totals are quite intriguing. There are 312 laps in all (unless there's overtime). The laps decrease is not so good because someone is at or near the pole does not make a ton of laps led automatically. We have seen racers on the pole just fade like crazy too often. Phoenix does not have the lines of Martinsville but one can lose positions fast.
Take the MORE with Martin Truex Jr. and the LESS with Chase Elliott. Watch Elliott get 18 points or so on Sunday. That one will be close along with Truex Jr. The feeling is the No. 19 car either wins or comes in second on Sunday. Stay tuned.
Pick 2/2 Correctly to 2.5x Your Buy-in
Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight
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