RADIO
After a streak of great Monday night games, last week’s matchup between the Saints and Seahawks was an absolute clunker. Alvin Kamara had a stellar day, carrying the ball 20 times for 51 yards while adding 10 receptions on 11 targets for 128 yards and a touchdown. Jameis Winston failed to throw for 225 yards and no other receiver in New Orleans had over 40 yards. It was similarly bad for Seattle. Geno Smith passed for 167 yards, 84 of which came on one throw to D.K. Metcalf. Metcalf finished the day with two catches for 96 yards. Unless you’re a fan of defenses, then this one was likely a snoozer. This Monday’s game has the potential to be similarly bad.
The Giants come into this game with a 2-5 record and plenty of question marks on offense. New York was down their top running back (Saquon Barkley) and three receivers (Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, and Kadarius Toney) in Week 7. Surprisingly, the Giants had a commanding victory against the Panthers thanks to solid days from Daniel Jones (203 passing yards and a touchdown) and Devontae Booker (14 carries, 51 yards, and a touchdown). The Giants were able to get consistent pressure against Sam Darnold, continuing his rough stretch after a hot start to the season.
On the other side of things, the Chiefs are struggling to get anything going, falling to 3-4 after a blowout loss to the Titans. Patrick Mahomes already has nine interceptions on the season after throwing another one against the Titans. The Kansas City offense faltered in what should have been a big offensive performance, generating just three points despite 334 total yards. The combination of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill was especially ineffective, combining to catch 13 of 21 targets for 114 yards. Fantasy managers will hope the Chiefs can get back on track against an average Giants team.
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New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
Game time: Monday, November 1, 2021
Game line: Kansas City -9.5
Game total: 52.5
Must Start
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Patrick Mahomes is an unquestioned fixture in all fantasy lineups every week despite last week's brutal fantasy production. Mahomes completed just 57% of his passes for 206 yards and an interception in what should have been a slam dunk production spot against the Titans' defense. He was also knocked out of the game when his helmet awkwardly hit another player’s knee. Mahomes possesses a skill set that few players can match in the NFL today. Even in a down year, he is averaging 299 passing yards and 2.6 touchdowns per game. His interception rate is 3.2 percent, which would be a career-high, but it still isn’t a cause for concern. Don’t let a bad game fool you, Mahomes still has the upside to produce a 300-yard, five-touchdown passing game at any moment.
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
Daniel Jones has put together a respectable fantasy season despite another year of the Giants’ offense crumbling around him. New York is missing three of their four top guards and their young left tackle (Andrew Thomas) is on the IR. Additionally, Saquon Barkley struggled early recovering from last season’s ACL tear before spraining his ankle and missing the last two games. Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Darius Slayton, and Kadarius Toney have all missed at least one game this season. Despite all that, Jones is averaging 17.65 fantasy points per game thanks to his ability to scramble and avoid turnovers. Jones will hopefully get some of those weapons back this week to face the second-worst defense against quarterbacks in fantasy this season (24.2 points per game).
Darrel Williams (RB, KC)
Like the rest of the Chiefs offense, Darrel Williams was in a spot to smash last week and fell flat. The game was never close (or never in the wheelhouse for a shootout), so Williams finished Week 7 with five carries for 20 yards and three receptions on four targets for 30 yards. Fantasy managers can confidently go back to Williams again in Week 8. Clyde Edwards-Helaire will once again be out with a knee injury, leaving Williams as the lead back in Kansas City’s offense. Even in a negative game script last week, Williams was on the field for 64% of the offensive snaps. The Giants don’t have the offense to turn this game into a blowout which should mean Williams gets a workload similar to Week 6.
Devontae Booker (RB, NYG)
Devontae Booker has operated as New York’s lead back since Saquon was knocked out of Week 5 early. Booker has at least a 72% snap share in each of the last three games. During that stretch, he’s had 42 carries for 134 yards and two touchdowns while adding nine receptions for 59 yards and a receiving score. Booker’s averages aren’t stellar, but his volume is, making him a viable fantasy option until Barkley is ready to return. If Barkley is held out again in Week 8, you can confidently play Booker as a FLEX play against a Kansas City defensive line that is allowing 19.5 fantasy points per game to running backs on the season.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
The boom games for Tyreek Hill have been amazing. Unfortunately, they have been few and far between in 2021. Hill has two games with 22 total receptions, 383 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. In five other games, Hill has combined for 30 receptions, 258 yards, and one score. Hill just isn’t providing a safe fantasy floor, although his ceiling is consistently massive. For that reason, Hill is an automatic start every week. Hill will likely see a steady diet of James Bradberry, but even with him on the team, the Giants allow the 9th most fantasy points to wide receivers in 2021 (25.8). It isn’t fun right now, but ride the wave with Tyreek and hope for a big day.
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
Sterling Shepard didn’t play last week due to a hamstring injury, but he at least had an opportunity to play before getting ruled out shortly after pregame warm-ups. Shepard has been highly productive in the four games he has started (and finished) this season. Shepard has three games of at least nine targets, seven receptions, and 75 receiving yards. Jones has the most rapport with Shepard, so if he's good to go he’s a worthy start against a Chiefs secondary allowing 23.7 points per game to wide receivers this year. Shepard was the only injured Giant to register a limited practice as of Thursday, giving him the best shot at being in the lineup this week.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Travis Kelce was the most productive Chiefs pass-catcher against the Titans in Week 7, but that fell well short of our expectations of him as a fantasy producer. On the positive side, Kelce caught seven of 12 targets against the Titans in Week 8. It was his third straight game with double-digit targets and the sixth time he had at least six catches. Unfortunately, Kelce was only able to turn that into 65 yards. Kelce should get back on track against a Giants defense that has allowed four touchdowns to the tight end position this season.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Evan Engram missed practice on Wednesday with a calf injury but was able to return for a limited session on Thursday according to social media. While it’s hard to stomach starting the fifth-year tight end, recent trends in volume make it almost impossible to avoid him. Since making his first start in Week 3, Engram has been targeted at least four times in every game. In the last four weeks, he’s had at least three receptions and 24 yards in each contest. Those aren’t glamorous numbers, but at the tight end position, they are serviceable. The Chiefs allow 11.6 points per game to tight ends this season. If Engram is once again the only established weapon in the Giants’ passing attack this week, then he can finish in that top-12 range once again this week.
Consider Sitting
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
The safest way to prepare for this fantasy week is to assume the Giants will do the right thing and give Barkley's ankle another week to rest. In the two weeks before his injury, Barkley was finally starting to show he was returning to full health. Barkley had 29 carries for 103 yards and two touchdowns with 11 receptions for 117 yards and a receiving score in Weeks 3 and 4. If Barkley is cleared to play before Monday, then he’s a must-start. Until that happens he should find a spot on the bench one more week since he’ll likely be on a heavy snap count or completely out on Monday night.
Jerick McKinnon (RB, KC)
Jerick McKinnon has failed to make a significant impact since the Clyde Edwards-Helaire knee injury. McKinnon hasn’t exceeded a 31% snap share at all this season. In his last three games, McKinnon has totaled four rushes for 12 yards and five receptions on 10 targets for 35 yards. McKinnon just isn’t a big factor in the Kansas City offense and is firmly behind Darrel Williams in the backfield.
Kenny Golladay (WR, NYG)
Like Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay got injured against Dallas in Week 5 and hasn’t seen the field since. Golladay hadn’t logged a limited practice as of Thursday, casting doubt on his ability to play on Monday night. If Golladay is active, then he has an interesting upside as a WR3 or FLEX heading into this game given how bad Kansas City has been on defense this year. Golladay started the season with four games with at least five targets and three games with at least four receptions and 64 yards. He topped the 100-yard mark once. Like Barkley, Golladay is safe on your bench unless the Giants announce he will be good to go before Sunday’s games.
Kadarius Toney (WR, NYG)
Kadarius Toney struggled to get on the field early in the season, but once he did he had a massive impact. Toney was forced into a significant role in the passing attack in Weeks 4 and 5 and responded by posting 16 receptions on 22 targets for 267 yards. He was on pace for big production against the Rams in Week 6 (three catches for 36 yards on the opening drive) before re-aggravating an ankle injury and missing most of the game. As of Thursday, Toney was working on a side field with Golladay and Barkley, implying that he may not be ready to go for Monday’s game. If he’s active then he’s a very enticing play, but I’d play it safe and keep him on the bench until he logs a limited practice. Today’s injury report will be key.
Byron Pringle (WR, KC)
Byron Pringle finished Week 7’s game with a solid stat line, catching five of six targets for 73 yards. However, most of it came in garbage time and shouldn’t be seen as his role expanding (yet). It was Pringle’s second game this season with more than three targets and two receptions. Pringle is a touchdown-dependent option this season, and until those start coming more frequently (or his snap share starts to elevate above 50%) he’s nothing more than a lucky dart throw.
Potential Sleepers
Mecole Hardman (WR, KC)
Mecole Hardman is starting to develop a role in Kansas City’s passing game. The third-year receiver is averaging 7.3 targets, 5.7 receptions, and 55.3 receiving yards in his last three games. Hardman now has five games with at least four targets and six games with three receptions. Kansas City has a pretty condensed target share, so it will be tough for Hardman to make a consistent impact. He does possess game-breaking speed though, so any reception can easily turn into a touchdown.
Dante Pettis (WR, NYG)
Dante Pettis has had a resurgence in New York thanks to a slew of injuries at the wide receiver position. In his last two weeks, the 26-year-old receiver has 10 receptions on 16 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. If the bulk of the Giants receiving weapons are out again this week, Pettis has an interesting upside as a FLEX play given his play the last two weeks.
Darius Slayton (WR, NYG)
Darius Slayton returned from injury in Week 7 and made an impact in the Giants’ passing attack. Slayton totaled five receptions on nine targets for 63 yards against a weak Carolina secondary. Even if Barkley, Golladay, or Toney can return, Slayton has a pretty established role as the Giants’ primary deep threat. In Weeks 1 and 2, Slayton played at least 57% of the team’s offensive snaps. The Giants may struggle to keep up with Kansas City, which could lead Slayton to have a solid day in the passing attack, especially if he converts a deep shot.
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