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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 7. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
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Chiefs @ Titans: More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Patrick Mahomes more than 327.5 passing yards and Ryan Tannehill more than 255.5 passing yards
This game has the potential to be another shootout between the Chiefs and Titans as the last two games they have played combined for a total of 126 points. We should see plenty of fireworks in this game and both quarterbacks have a great shot at getting more than their projected totals.
Mahomes has thrown over this total in three of his first six games this season and is fresh off a 397-yard passing game last week against the Washington Football Team. What is notable about last week, is that it was the first week the Chiefs were without Clyde Edwards-Helaire and had to rely on Darrel Williams, who averaged just 2.9 yards per carry. Given that the Chiefs do not have a strong run game, Mahomes will likely come out throwing a bit more again (he had 47 pass attempts last week) this week vs. a Titans defense that has allowed quarterbacks to average nearly 280 passing yards per game.
Ryan Tannehill and the Titans could be forced to keep up with the Chiefs' offense in this game and that is why I like him to get more than 255.5 passing yards. The Chiefs' secondary has struggled on the whole as they have allowed quarterbacks to throw for over 291 passing yards per game over the previous four weeks, which ranks sixth-worst in the league over that span. Tannehill has thrown over this total just twice in 2021, but he threw for 347 yards against the Seahawks on September 19, and this game should have a very similar feel to that game, which finished with a final score of 33-30 in favor of Tennessee. The total in this game is the highest on the board at 57.5, so we should see plenty of passing.
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Falcons @ Dolphins: Fantasy Challenge Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Cordarrelle Patterson, Calvin Ridley, and Jaylen Waddle to combine for more than 50.5 fantasy points
Patterson has been used as an extremely versatile weapon in this Falcons offense as he has rushed the ball 41 times and caught the ball 25 times over the previous five games. He can do it all and likely will against a Miami defense that has allowed an average of 30 fantasy points per game to the running back position over the previous four weeks as well as an average of over 50 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. These rank fourth-worst and worst in the league, respectively, and should put Patterson in line for a very solid afternoon.
Calvin Ridley missed the Falcons last game against the New York Jets in London but will return this week to face the struggling Miami Dolphins' secondary. Ridley has seen nearly 11 targets per game and should finally be able to capitalize in this game. Miami has allowed an average of 245 receiving yards to the wide receiver position over the previous four weeks, which ranks last in the league over that span. They have also given up six touchdowns in that span, so Ridley may also find his way into the end zone for the second time this season.
Jaylen Waddle is coming fresh off a game in which he saw 13 targets from Tua Tagovailoa and should be a focal point in this Dolphins' offense on Sunday. He will be going up against a Falcons' defense that has allowed an average of over 38 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position over the previous four weeks, which ranks in the bottom half of the league. He will also be facing a lot of Falcons' cornerback Avery Williams, which should provide him some solid opportunities to produce. The fact that the Dolphins are underdogs in this game should also increase the passing volume and help Waddle contribute to this total.
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Eagles @ Raiders: More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
DeVonta Smith under 64.5 receiving yards, Miles Sanders more than 54.5 rushing yards, and Josh Jacobs more than 60.5 rushing yards
DeVonta Smith has been solid in 2021 as he has averaged 57.5 receiving yards per game over his first six games, but he will have a tough matchup in this one. The Raiders secondary has been outstanding in 2021 and has only allowed wide receivers to average 106 receiving yards per game over the previous four weeks, which is ranked second-best in the league over that span. This sets up as more of a game for the running backs, which leads us to the next play.
Miles Sanders' usage has been suspect to begin the season as he has averaged just 45 rushing yards per game on just 9.5 carries per game. This is a game where the Eagles should look to get him more involved, especially in the running game. Over the previous four weeks, the Raiders have allowed running backs to average 120.5 rushing yards per game, which is ranked fifth-worst in the league. They are also allowing 4.6 yards per carry, which means Sanders would need approximately 12 carries to get over the threshold here. Hopefully, the Eagles understand the way to go after the Raiders is on the ground, and they get Sanders rolling early and often.
As bad as the Raiders have been against the run, the Eagles have been worse as they are allowing running backs to average 127 rushing yards per game over the previous four weeks, which is ranked third-worst in the league over that span. Jacobs has seen an average of nearly 14 carries per game across his four games played in 2021, so the volume should certainly be there for him to get over this total. Add in the fact that the Raiders are three-point home favorites, and you could have a recipe for an even larger workload for Jacobs in this one.
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