Running Backs - Rest of Season Rankings for Fantasy Football

Fantasy football is a weekly game and always has been. In 2021, with COVID still a factor and injuries running rampant more than ever, it's nearly impossible to predict what the remainder of the season will look like. But that's exactly what I'll attempt to do.

No position is more volatile than running back and it seems as if every elite RB, with the exception of the inhuman Derrick Henry, has been affected by injury recently. That said, fantasy managers need to have a firm grasp on where the value lies before making important trade or waiver wire decisions that will impact the second half of the season.

Below are my rest-of-season running back rankings ahead of Week 7. These are subject to change by the hour based on breaking injury news and will almost certainly be adjusted again in another week. I'll provide a rationale as to my ranking for most of the major players.

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Updated Running Back Rankings: Rest-Of-Season

Who Are the True RB1s?

Derrick Henry is THE RB1, no questions asked. Beyond that, it's a crapshoot.

Christian McCaffrey is not just set to miss three weeks at minimum with his latest IR stint but possibly see limited action upon return. The fact that Chuba Hubbard has looked impressive in extended action the last couple of weeks should inspire the team to work both backs in the mix for the second half of the season. There are already rumblings that they finally see the forest for the trees and may not run CMC into the ground when he's active. That doesn't take him out of the top 10 but when you account for games missed and the potential for re-injury, seventh is the highest I can rank him.

I'm higher on Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris than Alvin Kamara because, well, they've been better. In PPR scoring, Harris is fourth and Taylor is seventh in fantasy points per game among running backs whereas Kamara is 11th. In standard scoring, Taylor is tied for third, Harris is 10th, Kamara is 11th.

Of course, we're projecting the future not looking back at the past. Still, the fact that Harris is already more productive and is still getting his feet under him at the pro level is impressive. No JuJu Smith-Schuster and the growing awareness that the team is better when the offense runs through Harris should lead to even higher usage. Taylor hasn't seen an uptick in touches, he's just been much more effective the past three weeks as has the entire Colts offense. If Carson Wentz and Quentin Nelson are past their injuries, this team could contend every week and lead to positive or at least neutral game script for Taylor, where he thrives.

How to Value Injured RBs

It's far from an exaggeration to state that the amount of running backs affected by injury at some point this season is nearly half of the total number of running backs in the league. As far the ones who are fantasy-relevant on a regular basis in 12-team leagues, we need a sense of whether these players are worth holding, trading away, or attempting to "buy low."

Kareem Hunt is the latest stud RB to hit the shelf, joining teammate Nick Chubb with a calf injury. As it stands, Hunt appears destined for Injured Reserve and could miss about a month. Chubb is a longshot to play in Week 7 because the Browns play on Thursday night but he could be back in Week 8.

Hunt will only get in one game, possibly two at most, before the team's Week 13 bye. That means his value is strictly as a playoff stash for teams that can afford to get by without him. RB16 may seem generous but I place more weight on a player's late-season value rather than midseason and we've seen how productive he can be, outscoring Chubb the past couple of weeks when both were healthy. Chubb will probably get more game action in and end the year with more total fantasy points but

Saquon Barkley, what do we do with you? There's no choice but to hold if you took a risk on him in your draft. His upside is unparalleled but he continues to suffer countless setbacks. When comparing the risk/reward nature of Barkley versus the consistency of someone like James Robinson, I'm moving to the side of Robinson based on the RB landscape. There simply aren't enough replacements to plug and play that would return anything close to comparable production for Barkley on a weekly basis. No, Devontae Booker doesn't count.

I am increasingly worried that Antonio Gibson won't make it through the season. A variety of injuries have limited him but the stress fracture in his shin is threatening to put him on the shelf for a while. He has been underachieving relative to his ADP anyway so I would get out while I can. I'm prepared to slide him far down the ranks as soon as we get more information on his MRI results.

The window to acquire David Montgomery at a favorable rate gets wider with each passing week. Khalil Herbert has been great the past two games and Damien Williams should return from the COVID list next week. It's easy to forget how good Montgomery was over the first month of the season. The Week 3 contest with Cleveland was a disaster for everyone but he topped 100 yards on the ground twice. He is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and his 2.6 YAC per attempt is second among all runners. Much like last year, the Bears find themselves with a great late-season schedule during the fantasy playoffs so I prefer to stash Monty than hold on too long to a player like Chuba Hubbard or Melvin Gordon who could see his touches fade down the stretch when it matters most.

Chris Carson presents the best bargain in the trade market because his neck injury will scare off any contender from relying on him, especially with Russell Wilson also out. Neck issues are nothing to blow off but it seems as if his placement on IR was more precautionary than anything.

Seahawks RB Chris Carson did not experience any setbacks in his recovery from neck injury, I’m told, but since still not 100 percent symptom free, the team wanted to give him more time to heal by putting him on short-term IR.

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) October 16, 2021

There was consternation regarding Carson's performance this year before his injury but he was averaging 4.3 yards per carry and scored at least 14 fantasy points in each of the first three games so it's not as if he was a massive bust. The biggest concern is Alex Collins and/or Rashaad Penny cutting into his workload but any time Carson is active and healthy, he's been the clear lead back.

Below Consensus RBs

Chase Edmonds is a valuable piece to the Cardinals' offense but just not as valuable in fantasy. He is RB23 in terms of fantasy points per game but he just never has those "boom" games that truly make a difference. He has yet to score 15 PPR points in a single game over the team's 6-0 start, mainly because he doesn't have a touchdown yet. Positive regression may come but it's not likely when James Conner gets all the red zone carries. Edmonds is fine as a high-floor RB2 but that's not what wins leagues.

Can't say I didn't see the Miles Sanders bust coming since he was the poster boy for my 2021 All-Bust Team. I didn't foresee him being this unproductive, though. To be fair, many of his efficiency metrics are similar to his career norms so it's mostly been a product of decreased usage. That's what drives fantasy value at RB, however, and I saw the writing on the wall when Kenneth Gainwell was taking over on passing downs in preseason. Having a running quarterback like Jalen Hurts is never good for a running back either. These factors, along with questionable offensive game planning by a new coaching staff, are not going away so I will hold out no hope for a rebound by Sanders.

Eli Mitchell might have earned the RB1 job in San Francisco. Don't care. At this point, Kyle Shanahan appears to be doing more harm than good and continues to derail the progress of his young athletes. Mitchell is a good athlete who is supposedly in a great situation for a running back but I no longer want any part of this backfield until the offense finds an identity.

Potential Risers

Aside from future injuries pushing someone into the spotlight unexpectedly, as could happen to Jaret Patterson soon enough, there are a couple of players that have a strong shot to move up these rankings.

Remember Ty'Son Williams? He emerged out of obscurity to become the Ravens' leading runner in Week 1 after they lost both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards for the season. Then, unexpectedly, he became a healthy scratch in Week 4 and again in Week 6 despite averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Instead, crusty veterans Latavius Murray, Le'Veon Bell, and Devonta Freeman are getting run while Williams watches. The team could be doing a smart thing by boosting the trade value of established players in order to trade them to desperate teams and keeping Williams fresh (and healthy) for later in the year. This might be overly optimistic but I would be willing to stash Williams if I had bench space.

I still carry a candle for Rashaad Penny in the hopes that one day he'll stay healthy for more than a week at a time. He is designated to return from IR and potentially see action in Week 7 but we'll see how that goes. With Carson out and Collins banged up himself, Penny could at least see a path to touches and perhaps... fantasy relevance!

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