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Hello once again everyone! We hit the Texas Motor Speedway for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 this week and another edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Now, that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 40 points, 2nd is worth 39, 3rd is worth 38, and so on. Every lap led equals an extra 0.01 points. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Kyle Busch Over 35.0 Points. This week we again swing out during the first race of Phase 3. The younger Busch could very well win this week and a group of us kind of think that he needs to. Kansas and Martinsville have their issues. There is opportunity. Busch has won twice in the last six races over three seasons at Texas. His laps-led percentage is excellent. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has gotten the downforce down on these low-maintenance tracks. The HP package is favorable for Busch on Sunday. He just has to avoid trouble. Take the OVER here and a likely top-five finish or better.
Ryan Blaney Over 34 Points. The risk is high here but Ryan Blaney seems like one of those forgotten drivers this week. Only Kurt Busch has more top-ten finishes at Texas in the last three years. Arguably, the time that the Team Penske car missed was when he had bad luck while running again among the top ten. His average finish is 10.5 but closer to 5 when that one race is thrown out. Blaney has led 12.71% of the laps as well and has been closer to winning without winning. A top-five finish is very possible on Sunday and he will lead a few laps to avoid a potential push. Take the OVER.
Alex Bowman Under 31.5 Points. The idea is good enough in theory. Bowman finishing outside the top ten is almost likely on Sunday. There is a risk because of how fast Hendrick cars can run anywhere. However, at Texas Motor Speedway, the risk just becomes too hard to pass up. The No. 48 car can seem to surprise any week but that goes both ways. Just when one has the driver figured out, something else occurs. Take the UNDER here as Bowman's average is outside the top-15.
Kyle Larson Under 37.5 Points. The risk bit us last week and yet, we go to the well once again. The problem is that Larson will do anything to win a race. That becomes a double-edged sword. Sometimes it works for the props and other times it does not. Larson has to finish on the podium to prove us wrong. The chances he does are moderate at least but the chances he does not are as well. Larson could fall from the pole and pretty quickly. The No. 5 car just is s coin flip every week until the season ends. It is especially true this week even with his speed interval results on intermediate tracks. We take the UNDER here.
Kurt Busch Over 31 Points. This is nuts, right? Wrong! Incredibly, a driver who enjoys such success at Texas gets a point total that is a bit too low. The older Busch just has to lead one lap and finish tenth. Okay, Busch is six for his last six in top-ten finishes. Though his average result is 7.83, that's enough to pivot to this prop. Is the Chip Ganassi Racing driver going to win on Sunday? Probably not. However, again, the aim is different here. Let's take that OVER one more time.
Some other drivers to look at:
Christopher Bell (under 31.5 points) -- Things have not gone well for Bell at times and Sunday could be another one of those afternoons.
Martin Truex Jr. (under 34 points) -- Truex Jr.'s better tracks are coming up. Texas may be a place where he hovers around the top ten but that's not enough.
Erik Jones (over 25 points) -- Sorry everyone again. Jones knows how to race on this track and a top-15 just seems very reasonable here.
Chase Elliott (under 34.5 points) -- No one would be shocked if Elliott even ends up outside the top ten. After all, he has finished that way in five of his last six races at Texas.
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