RADIO
We're back following the international break and we're looking to make it six straight matchweeks of profit following a big game two weeks ago. We correctly picked Leeds to beat Watford on Saturday, although our prop bets all fell through. But Crystal Palace and Leicester City played out a 2-2 draw like we predicted and despite Crystal Palace not getting a penalty nor did Wilfried Zaha score, we ended the weekend with a 119% ROI.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 27-27-3 (+12.57 U)
- Match results: 11-5
Saturday, October 16th, 2021
Wolves (+255) at Aston Villa (+125) - 10:00 am ET
I'm normally a bit reluctant to pick local derbies but there's some nice value picks here, especially given that I slightly favor the underdogs in this one.
Wolves got off to a rough start this season, losing their first three games, but have since won three of four and have only conceded six goals in their seven games so far. Scoring goals has been more difficult with just five goals but Summer signing Hwang Hee-chan has three goals in their last four games. He will be crucial to them again this week with star striker Raúl Jiménez a doubt due to playing for Mexico in the early hours of Thursday morning.
After impressive wins against Everton (3-0) and Manchester United (1-0), Aston Villa came back to Earth a fortnight ago with a 2-1 defeat to struggling Tottenham. They remain unbeaten at home with just one goal conceded and six scored (three games). I do think that unbeaten record stays intact as I feel this one ends in a draw but Wolves recent form gives me a reason to believe they can cause a bit of an upset. Wolves are showing signs of being more accustomed to their new manager's style of play and the new additions to the squad continue to adapt.
I'm also intrigued by the corners market with this game. It's easy to see the match odds and back Aston Villa to have more corners but in their home games, Aston Villa have had 11 corners for and 10 against. While Wolves have 17 corners in their away games and conceded 16 corners.
I'm also going with the under in total corners. Wolves' seven games have had a total 64 corners (9.14 per game) while Aston Villa's games have had a total of 65 (9.25 per game). Five of Wolves' seven games have had nine or fewer corners while four of Aston Villa's seven games have had fewer than ten corners in.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 - 1 Wolves
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Draw (+238) 0.5 units
- Draw no bet - Wolves (+148) 0.5 units
- Total goals - Under 2.5 (-129) 1 unit
- Most corners - Wolves (+141) 0.5 units
- Total corners - Under 9.5 (+107) 1 unit
- Anytime scorer - Hwang Hee-chan (+250) 0.5 units
Sunday, October 17th, 2021
West Ham United (+198) at Everton (+155) - 9:00 am ET
West Ham is seeking back-to-back top 10 finishes in the Premier League for the first time since the 2007/08 and 2008/09 seasons. Their sixth place last season was their highest EPL finish since they were fifth in 1998/99. They looked like contenders to achieve that after winning their opening two games of this season.
But they've won just once in their last five games despite scoring 14 goals, the most of any team outside of the top-4. However, the 10 goals they've conceded is the most of all teams in the top-12. They are unbeaten away this season with two wins and a draw.
Everton has had a bright start to the season and comes into this weekend in fifth place with just one defeat in their seven games. They've won all three home games with an aggregate score of 8-2 and all games being won by a two-goal margin. I'm not sure they win this by two goals but do expect Everton to maintain their 100% record at home in what should be an exciting game that has the potential to be a high-scoring affair.
Everton has just two clean sheets on the season, one of which came against bottom of the table Norwich. West Ham has just one clean sheet (against Southampton), which was also the only game they've failed to score in so far. Everton has also failed to score just once this season.
We're going to add in some prop bets for this game too with the most prominent one being the half with the most goals. In Everton's seven games, there's been a total of six goals scored in the first halves and fifteen in the second halves. It's a similar story for West Ham with nine goals coming in the first halves of their games and fifteen in the second halves.
We'll add in the cards market too with Everton receiving more bookings. West Ham are the least penalized team in the league with just eight bookings while Everton has had 13. Everton has had more bookings than their opponents in four games with the other three being a tie. West Ham has received fewer bookings than their opponents in four games, with two being ties and once they received more yellow cards (1-0).
Finally, we'll add in corners with the away side edging that market. Despite winning all three home games, Everton has had fewer corners in two of those games. West Ham has had more corners than their opponents in two of their three away games. West Ham has also had a total of 44 corners this season, compared to Everton's 31.
Score prediction: Everton 2 - 1 West Ham
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Everton (+155) 1 unit
- Most booking points - Everton (+175) 0.5 units
- Most corners - West Ham United (+103) 1 unit
- Both teams to score and total goals - Yes and over 2.5 (+120) 1 unit
- Half with most goals - Second half (-105) 1.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
