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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 6. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
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Chiefs at Football Team: More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Patrick Mahomes more than 316.5 passing yards and Taylor Heinicke more than 268.5 passing yards
This game sets up for some serious passing stats as both defenses rank inside the bottom 10 in terms of passing yards allowed to quarterbacks over the previous four weeks.
Mahomes will enter this game without Clyde Edward-Helaire and will likely have to shoulder the load in this game. He has thrown for over 300 yards in two of five games this season, but has not thrown for over 300 in any of his previous three games. That being said, his previous three opponents were the Bills, Eagles, and Chargers, each of which ranks inside the top 12 in terms of passing yards allowed over the previous four weeks. The Washington Football Team has allowed quarterbacks to throw for nearly 292 passing yards per game over the previous four weeks, which ranks ninth-worst in the league. Look for Mahomes to come out slinging it in this one in order to get his team back on track after a 2-3 start to the season.
Heinicke and the WFT come into this game as 6.5-point underdogs, which will lead to some additional passing in this game. Add in the fact that the Chiefs have a high-powered offense and can score in an instant, and you have a Football Team that will likely be chasing points most of the game. This may not be such a bad thing from a fantasy perspective as the Chiefs are allowing quarterbacks to throw for nearly 306 passing yards per game over the previous four weeks, which is ranked fourth-worst in the league.
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Texans @ Colts: More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Nyheim Hines less than 3.5 receptions, Mark Ingram II less than 42.5 rushing yards, and Jonathan Taylor more than 83.5 rushing yards
This is a number Hines has hit twice this season and just once since Week 1. The Colts are expected to be playing from ahead in this game and may not need Hines in the passing game as much. Houston has also allowed just 15 receptions to backs over the previous four weeks, which is ranked sixth-best in the league. The guy that SHOULD get most of the work in this game is Jonathan Taylor who we will discuss shortly.
The Texans are 10-point dogs, which could lead to more passing from their side of the ball, and he is only averaging just 10.5 carries over his previous four games and has not gone over this total since Week 1 of the season. The Colts' defense has also been solid at stopping the run as they are giving up just 68 rushing yards per game to backs over the previous four weeks, which ranks seventh-best in the league.
Jonathan Taylor is coming off two solid games in which he accounted for 156 rushing yards on 31 carries. He and the Colts will enter this game against Houston as 10-point favorites and this should help him garner some additional carries. Houston has struggled against the run as they have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to backs over the previous four weeks with 492 yards allowed on the ground. Taylor is currently averaging nearly 15 carries per game and should have a very good shot at getting over this total on Sunday.
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Packers @ Bears: Touchdown Dance Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, and Allen Robinson to combine for more than 1.5 touchdowns
Adams is definitely where we want to start this contest as he is currently averaging over 12 targets per game and has also scored twice in the last two weeks. He will be going up against a Bears' defense that has allowed 689 receiving yards and four touchdowns to wide receivers over the previous four weeks. Adams has also shown success against the Bears in the p[ast as he has hauled in eight touchdowns across his 14 games played.
Aaron Jones is capable of scoring at any time and he certainly came through for us a few weeks ago when he punched in four touchdowns against the Detroit Lions. He will be facing a Bears' defense that has given up just two touchdowns to running backs over the previous four weeks, but Jones has four touchdowns in seven games against the Bears in his career and should see some added opportunities in this one with Packers coming into the game as 4.5-point favorites.
The Bears will likely be trailing in this game and Allen Robinson should be actively involved as the Packers have allowed four receiving touchdowns to wide receivers over the previous four weeks. Although Robinson has been slow to get going, he does have 29 targets on the season and is the lone Bears' wide receiver to get in the end zone. One could also select Darnell Mooney in this contest as well if they preferred. We are only looking to get two scores in total and both Packers' players mentioned above have a shot at doing that all by themselves.
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