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Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 5 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Seahawks and Rams and offers his favorite prop picks and more/less picks for Monkey Knife Fight.
The NFL season is rolling, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. Tonight, we kick off Week 5 with the Seattle Seahawks hosting the Los Angeles Rams.
On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
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Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams: More or Less Contest
- Cooper Kupp MORE than 87.5 receiving yards
- D.K. Metcalf LESS than 72.5 receiving yards
Cooper Kupp has cleared this mark in three of his four outings this year, and he would have hit in all four if it wasn’t for the offensive struggles the Rams had in Week 4. Kupp is averaging over 100 yards per game, and he’s seeing an average of 11.5 targets per game. No other pass-catcher in this offense is seeing more than 6.3 targets per game. Due to his high volume and room to create after the catch, Kupp should be able to get to this bar with relative ease.
D.K. Metcalf went for less than this mark in both games against the Rams last season. Even when adding his totals from those two games together, he only totaled 87 yards. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey knows how to match up with Metcalf physically, and he gives quarterback Russell Wilson a reason to throw the ball in other directions. Ramsey has also only given up 126 yards through four games as the primary defender in coverage. Both players are extremely talented, but Metcalf hasn’t been winning in this matchup.
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Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams: More or Less Contest
- Tyler Lockett MORE than 67.5 receiving yards
- Robert Woods LESS than 58.5 receiving yards
This is largely tied to the struggles of his teammate. Metcalf is likely going to draw the attention of Ramsey all night which gives Tyler Lockett the advantage of playing against Darious Williams. The Rams are ok with giving up underneath receptions, and that’s where Lockett can “Dink-and-Dunk” his way to going for more than this mark. He could also get it done with one big play, but there is no guarantee the big play happens against this defense.
Robert Woods has just one game with more than 58.5 receiving yards this season, and that is also the only game where he went for more than 50 yards. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown Woods the second-most targets of any Rams’ pass-catcher, but he hasn’t turned it into big yardage totals. Woods should have opportunities this week, but there seem to be too many weapons in this offense to count on Woods going for more than 58.5 this week.
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Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams: More or Less Contest
- Darrell Henderson Jr. MORE than 69.5 rushing yards
- Chris Carson LESS than 54.5 rushing yards
The Seahawks have allowed the most rushing yards so far on the season, and Darrell Henderson Jr. is the full-time starter in an offense that generates room for him to run. Teammate Sony Michel fumbled in the first half of Week 4 and he didn’t see another touch after that. Seattle is allowing over 150 yards on the ground per game. If Henderson plays the entire game, he should be able to go for more than 69.5 rushing yards.
The Rams don’t have the best run defense, but with Chris Carson banged up, you can have a little more confidence in this one. Carson missed practice with a neck injury on Tuesday and he’s coming off of a game where teammate Alex Collins was the far more effective running back. If Carson comes into this game limited, he will likely be splitting carries which will make it more difficult for him to hit this mark.
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Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams: Rapid Fire Contest
- Russell Wilson +36.5 passing yards vs Matthew Stafford & Darrell Henderson -15.5 rushing yards vs Chris Carson
The Seahawks’ defense has left much to be desired, and that’s part of the reason why these picks are going the way that they are. Stafford and the Rams will be able to run the ball effectively, and Henderson is going to get nearly all of those carries. Assuming they’re leading, which I am, Wilson will be forced to throw, which is where he’s able to make up the difference between he and Stafford. For Henderson, the Seahawks just won’t be able to slow him down often enough. He also has the ability to break the occasional big run, which isn’t something you generally see out of Carson.
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