RADIO
Kev analyzes NFL snap counts and usage from Week 3 to find fantasy football risers and fallers for Week 4 and beyond. These RBs, WRs and TEs could be sleepers or busts moving forward.
Snap counts are not the be-all-end-all for fantasy production but they paint a clear picture with the necessary context. Every snap is an opportunity for a player to make his presence felt and if their snaps go up or down, you get an idea of what the team thinks of their skill-set. A running back can have all the rushing talent in the world but if he can't catch the ball or is useless in pass protection, their snaps will not reflect that talent.
We do not have much of a sample for rising or falling snaps but for the sake of trying to identify worthwhile trends early, that's the basis we will use. Snap% listed reflect a player's usage in Week 3 contests.
If you have any questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter @RotoSurgeon and ask away.
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Rising Snaps
RB Zack Moss BUF (56%)
Zack Moss finally stepped up to the plate and delivered a good performance. While he did score twice in Week 2, that was a "gimme" game that was uncompetitive and finished 35-0 thanks to Buffalo's dominance and Tua's mid-game injury. Week 3 showed more of the Moss that Buffalo intended to draft last season.
Moss finished the day with 91 total yards on 16 touches and a TD. His start to the season may not have been promising due to a healthy scratch but going up against one of the league's best defenses and providing a performance like that speaks volumes. He is still hard to start given Devin Singletary's presence but Moss certainly has earned a floor of touches moving forward.
The most likely scenario is that Moss and Singletary are used in a hot-hand way that nerfs our trust but if something happens to Singletary or if Moss repeats this performance and continues seeing targets + goal-line work, he could wind up a weekly RB2.
RB Chuba Hubbard (55%)
Chuba Hubbard only played so much because of Christian McCaffrey's hamstring injury. Hubbard, the Panthers' 4th round draft pick performed fine at best and had two solid runs towards the end of the game when Carolina's lead was substantial enough. The only reason for intrigue would be his 5 targets but one of those was a dropped pass in the end-zone which may leave a poor taste in coaches' mouths.
Third-string RB Royce Freeman is better than Hubbard but has not been around the team as long given his recent release from Denver and claim by Carolina. Fortunately, for Panthers fans and CMC managers, the injury doe not seem like it is significant and he may only miss the next game or two. Hubbard will likely continue to see a bulk of work and not cede much unless he is egregiously bad. Not worth the FAB/waiver priority you'd have to spend unless your RB spot is a wasteland.
WR Brandon Aiyuk (90%)
Brandon Aiyuk finally woke up out of his slumber. Hopefully, the doghouse was cozy because he's basically back playing every snap for San Francisco and not going to have a chance to rest. I joke about the doghouse given that the most feasible reason for his absence was the preseason hamstring injury but those out-of-context quotes from Shanahan even seemed suspicious.
Aiyuk's production was solid in Week 3 as he provided a 14.3 PPR point performance but a chunk of that is carried by his touchdown. Luckily, managers can rest assured that there are more to come as his 3 targets inside 10 yards have him tied for 3rd in the NFL and he's barely played. Aiyuk can do more on the efficiency front given that he only produced 37 yards on 6 targets but maybe he's still not at full, full speed. He's a start moving forward.
Falling Snaps
RB Kenyan Drake LV (43%)
Of all games for Kenyan Drake's snaps to fall, it's one where Raiders' RB1 Josh Jacobs is inactive. Peyton Barber was signed off of the street a few weeks ago and out-snapped $11 million dollar man Drake 47-36 in a close game! This would have made some sense if Barber was utilized as a grinder back to run out the clock but this game hit overtime and he was still seeing touches.
Kenyan Drake's role in Week 2 sans Josh Jacobs (71%) was the expectation in his position but that is unlikely to repeat in future Jacobs-less games because the team clearly views him in a specific role that is essentially one of a glorified scat-back. Drake's been very useable for fantasy purposes as his 17 targets through 3 games are very promising but he is not a goal-line back like last year and probably loses our trust once Jacobs returns.
WR Gabriel Davis BUF (29%)
Gabriel Davis was touted as the Bills' WR2 this past offseason given his "breakout" rookie year but this is not the case as free-agent signee Emmanuel Sanders has a stranglehold there. WR1 is obviously Stefon Diggs' spot and Cole Beasley mans the slot leaving just one starting spot for those two.
Sanders is on the older side and already dealt with an injury this preseason. Davis could play a prominent role down the line but for now, he's going to remain limited as long as everyone's healthy. 1 target over the past 2 weeks is un-rosterable in most leagues and his snaps have dipped in each game.
RB Phillip Lindsay HOU (16%)
The Texans' backfield was a joke all offseason. For some reason, they signed Mark Ingram II, Rex Burkhead, and Phillip Lindsay to a non-competitive roster that is probably going to end up cutting them before their contracts expire. Lindsay was a great story in Denver as a hometown boy who went undrafted and rose to relevance, fending off Day 2 draft pick Royce Freeman and outplaying former first-round Melvin Gordon at times.
Now, in Houston, that story doesn't matter and he's not guaranteed any leeway if he can't play. Lindsay's averaging 1.6 yards-per-carry through 3 games and has been targeted a total of 2 times. His snaps have dropped consecutively and he's on the brink of becoming this team's RB4 behind Burkhead.
There is very little hope here for Lindsay and it is best to let go before it's too late. He needs an injury (or 2) to regain some semblance of value.
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