EPL DFS Lineup Picks for DraftKings (9/25/21) - English Premier League Soccer Matchweek 4

Welcome back to the Kick-Off! Today we will entertain the full DraftKings slate, starting with the early matchup between two title contenders and finishing up with the heaviest favorite of the day.

For the main slate, the two largest favorites are Everton -190 and Leicester -205. Although the slate has two true favorites, it will be more mixed than most slates with the potential for upsets.

If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.

The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 4

Vegas Odds for the Day

[H] Chelsea (+170) at [A] Manchester City (+160):  Total:  2 1/2u

Chelsea will be hosting Manchester City in what will be their second hardest matchup in the early season. Meanwhile, the visitors will be encountering their first true test. This will be a matchup with many eyes on it and it will tell the tale of who is ready for the title early on. Chelsea has won every match in all competitions but one -- a draw against Liverpool --. City has struggled a little more, losing the Community shield match and the first match of the season back-to-back. They are also coming off a draw with Southampton when they travel to Stamford Bridge. Without a legitimate striker, City could possibly concede another loss here.

Expected Outcome: 2-1 Chelsea

CHE:

D: Alonso($8.2K)

M/F: Lukaku($10.2K), Mount($8.8K)

GPP: Havertz($7.4K), Mendy($5.8K), Jorginho($4.8K)

MAC:

M/F: De Bruyne($10.6K), Grealish($9K)

GPP: Foden($10K), Torres($9.2K), Cancelo($6.8K), Ederson($5.6K)

[H] Everton (-190) at [A] Norwich (+550):  Total: 2 1/2u 

Neither Everton nor Norwich will be coming into this match with confidence after they were both dropped out of the Carabao Cup in midweek. They both also lost at the weekend, although Norwich is on a four-game losing streak. The Toffees are still without Calvert-Lewin though which is drastically impacting their scoring potential. Norwich could win this meeting, but they will be battling uphill at Goodison Park.

Expected Outcome: 2-1 Everton

EVE:

D: Digne($6.4K)

M/F: Townsend($10.7K), Gray($8.4K)

GPP: Rondon($7.3K), Begovic($5.6K)

NOR:

M/F: Rashica($5.1K), Gilmour($3.8K)

GPP: Pukki($5.6K), Aarons($4.1K), Williams($3.2K), Krul($3.9K)

[H] Leeds (+160) at [A] West Ham (+160):  Total: 3u

Leeds continues to struggle whether it is away or at home in front of the fans at Elland Road. They are coming into this match with their second win of the season, but they still have not won in the Top-Flight yet. They are also still without Jack Harrison -- the final stages of recovering from COVID-19 -- and they will be without Patrick Bamford and possibly Raphina as well. This does not bode well for the lackluster attack that they have mustered together with the trio let alone without. The Hammers will be coming in with confidence after they beat the Red Devils in midweek with their “B” team. With Antonio back in the fold after suspension, he will be one of the higher-owned players on the slate and for very good reason. Leeds are conceding just under 2.0 goals against per game and with West Ham firing on all cylinders, they are looking at another loss.

Expected Outcome: 3-0 West Ham

LEE:

D: Dallas($5.7K)

M/F: Raphina($9.1K)

GPP: Rodrigo($5.9K), Klich($5.7K), Roberts($4.9K), James($4.7K), Meslier($4.7K)

WHU:

G: Fabianski($4.9K)

D: Cresswell($5.5K)

M/F: Antonio($9.3K), Bowen($7.9K)

GPP: Benrahma($8.5K), Fornals($7.1K)

[H] Leicester (-205) at Burnley [A] (+600):  Total: 2 1/2u  

Both clubs continue to struggle this season and they combined only have one win in the Top-Flight -- Leicester 2-1 Norwich --. Leicester surprisingly has struggled to score this season and their defense is even more suspect. Burnley’s offense is struggling to no surprise and their defense is the only thing keeping them afloat. Burnley could turn Jay Rodriguez’s massive appearance from midweek into a push here, however, it will be a tougher task than expected. This matchup could be much closer than many expect.

Expected Outcome: 2-0 Leicester

LEI: 

G: Schmeichel($5.8K)

D: Bertrand($4.4K)

M/F: Vardy($9.6K), Tielemans($7.4K)

GPP: Daka($8.6K), Barnes($5.6K), Maddison($4.9K)

BUR:

Cash/GPP: 

D: Taylor($4.6K)

M/F: McNeil($7.5K), Westwood($5.1K)

GPP: Gudmundsson($4.1K), Rodriguez($3.7K), Pope($3.7K)

[H] Watford (+140) at [A] Newcastle (+200):  Total: 2 1/2u  

Watford will be hoping to bounce back once again from a tough loss at midweek here. They also have a good opportunity to do so when they welcome the winless Magpies on Saturday. Newcastle is still without star striker Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin will continue to lead the line here. However, the midfield and wing-backs are not feeding him the ball enough which is hurting his potential. Newcastle is averaging just under 3.0 goals against per game and just over 1.0 goals for per game. Neither are good numbers and going against a healthy Hornets side who are looking to break their funk does not spell good news. Granted, Watford is also struggling for goals. They have only scored in two games out of their five so far, but when they score, they do it in bunches. Look for Watford to earn another win here.

Expected Outcome: 3-1 Watford

WAT:

D: Masina($4K), Rose($3.7K)

M/F: Cleverley($5.3K)

GPP: Sarr($10K), Dennis($6.9K), King($5.3K), Foster($5.1K), Kucka($4.3K)

NEW:

D: Ritchie($5.4K)

M/F: Saint-Maximin($8.3K)

GPP: Willock($5.9K), Almiron($5.2K), Darlow($4.5K), Longstaff($4.4K), Manquillo($4.3K)

[H] Brentford (+625) at [A] Liverpool (-225):  Total: 2 1/2o

Brentford has surprised many to start the season with a single loss so far through five Top-Flight matches. They also had an “upset” in their home-opener to start the season, but they have somewhat tailed off since. Meanwhile, Liverpool has won every match in all competitions besides their meeting with Chelsea at Anfield. Brentford has shown that they can hold their own, however, the offenses that they have faced do not match in comparison to what the Reds have in their folds. This is also a pretty simple bet for those looking at the over. 

Expected Outcome: 4-0 Liverpool 

BRE:

D: Canos($6K)

GPP: Toney($8.4K), Mbuemo($6.6K), Onyeka($5K), Norgaard($3.8K)

LIV:

G: Alisson($7K)

D: Alexander-Arnold($10.6K), Robertson($7.4K)

M/F: Salah($12K), Mane($10K), Jota($9.2K)

GPP: Henderson ($5.6K), Jones($4.6K)

Expected Corner Takers:

Chelsea: Alonso/Mount

Manchester City: Gundogan/De Bruyne

Everton: Digne/Townsend

Norwich: Milot Rashica/Billy Gilmour

Leeds: Raphina/Dallas

West Ham: Bowen/Cresswell

Leicester: Albrighton/Tielemans/Bertrand

Burnley: Westwood/McNeil

Watford: Cleverley/Dennis/Masina

Newcastle: Ritchie/Shelvey/Longstaff

Brentford: Canos/Mbuemo

Liverpool: Alexander-Arnold

Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!