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Kipp's expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 3's Thursday Night Football (TNF) game between the Panthers and Texans. Use his MKF fantasy football prop picks to win.
Welcome to the Week 3 of Thursday Night Football between the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans! Thursday Night Football means our friends at Monkey Knife Fight are offering some fantastic props for us to play.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of in tonight's game, so let's get to the picks!
Panthers @ Texans More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Sam Darnold less than 270.5 passing yards and Davis Mills more than 218.5 passing yards
While Darnold has gone over this total in each of his first two games in 2021, the Panthers faced two teams with stronger run defenses in the Jets and the Saints, respectively. Now, they will be facing the Texans who have given up 215 rushing yards to running backs over the course of the first two weeks, which is ranked in the bottom 10 of the league thus far. They also allowed the most rushing yards to backs in 2020 as well by allowing over 145 rushing yards per game. Add in the fact that the Panthers are 7.5-point favorites and this figures to be a game where Christian McCaffrey does a large portion of the work.
I am not going to sit here and pretend I know a ton about Davis Mills, because I don't. What I do know is that he averaged nearly 270 passing yards per game in his two short seasons at Stanford and had a 66% completion percentage. He is a capable quarterback that was not too rattled when asked to take over at halftime against the Browns last week as he was 8-for-18 with 102 yards passing and threw one touchdown and one interception. The game script in this one should favor him hitting more than this total as the Panthers are currently 7.5-point favorites. If they get up early on the Texans, look for Houston to throw the ball frequently to Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola.
Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight
Panthers @ Texans Reception Collection
Recommended Prop Pick:
Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, and Brandin Cooks to combine for more than 18.5 receptions
While the Texans have been awful against the run in recent memory, they have also allowed running backs to catch passes out of the backfield. In 2020, they allowed the 11th-most receptions to backs on the season by giving up 81 receptions. THus far in 2021, they have given up nine receptions and will now be going up against CMC. CMC has seen 15 targets and hauled in 14 receptions in his first two games this season and is quickly becoming a favorite target of Sam Darnold.
Darnold has also enjoyed throwing the ball to D.J. Moore as he has hauled in 14 of 19 targets this season and has seen at least eight targets in each of the first two games. Moore will likely be going up against Vernon Hargreaves in this one and he has not performed well this season as he gave up a big day to Marvin Jones Jr. in Week 1 in which he allowed five catches on nine targets for 77 yards and a touchdown.
Cooks is the primary weapon for the Houston Texans and should be a favored target for Davis Mills. Over the first two weeks of the season, Cooks has seen a whopping 21 targets and has hauled in 14 of them for 210 yards and a touchdown. While the Panthers have allowed just 17 receptions to wide receivers on the season, this game is not expected to be close and we could see a lot of garbage time receptions for Cooks.
Play the Reception Collection Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight
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