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Alex Burns delves into 49ers rookie running back Elijah Mitchell's dominant fantasy football Week 1 performance, and if he can keep it up to be a weekly must-start.
It's crazy that just a few short weeks ago, millions of fantasy managers around the globe were proudly smashing the draft button to acquire 49ers rookie running back Trey Sermon on their rosters. Thousands of articles were written and plenty of tweets were carefully crafted, detailing just how perfect Sermon would fit into head coach Kyle Shanahan's scheme. After all, San Francisco did trade up to select Sermon in the third round of this year's draft, and the team's leading rusher, Raheem Mostert, does tend to be a bit injury-prone. The stars were aligning and the stage was set. Sermon was going to be a league winner.
Fast forward to Sunday, September 12th, precisely 90 minutes before the 49ers were scheduled to kick off their 2021 campaign with a mouth-watering matchup against the Detroit Lions. The team released their official ACTIVE/INACTIVE list and to the chagrin of 97% of the fantasy community, Sermon's name was listed under inactive. How could this happen? Was it disciplinary? Is he injured? Millions of questions raced across the fantasy community. Once the smoke cleared and the initial shock wore off, a certain name began to circulate among the masses. That name is Elijah Mitchell.
Mitchell would go on to rush 19 times for 104 yards and one touchdown in the 49ers' 41-33 victory while Raheem Mostert suffered a knee cartilage injury and will subsequently miss the remainder of the 2021 season. As a result, Mitchell appears to be first in line to lead the 49ers' backfield committee, making him the hottest waiver wire target heading into Week 2. Given that he will likely become a fixture in many fantasy lineups this season, it makes sense to take a second to learn more about this potential league winner.
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Louisiana-Lafayette Days (2017-2020)
Ranked as a two-star running back on Rivals.com, Mitchell rushed for over 3,000 yards and 41 touchdowns across his four-year college career, which was good enough to earn him First-Team All Sunbelt Conference honors as a senior in 2020. His time at Lafayette ended with a bang, as Mitchell rushed for 127 yards and a touchdown in the team's bowl game against UTSA. In the process, he set the record for the most rushing yards by a Ragin' Cajun in a bowl game in program history.
Quickly after his senior season, Mitchell declared for the upcoming NFL draft, where he was projected to be a late-round draft pick. Standing at 5'10" and weighing 210 lbs, Mitchell is an absolute burner and that was on full display during his pro day where he ran an official 4.38 40-yard dash.
San Francisco 49ers
Despite the 49ers trading up to select the aforementioned Sermon in the third round, they pulled the trigger on Mitchell with the 194th pick of the draft. Immediately upon arriving in San Francisco, word began to spread about how well the sixth-round pick looked in Shanahan's offense. By most accounts, Mitchell had an excellent camp and drew rave reviews by most of the 49ers' beat reporters early on. Check out this quote by Sports Illustrated's Grant Cohn back on August 8th:
"As well as [Round 3 rookie Trey Sermon] has played, Mitchell has played even better. He currently is the second-best running back on the team after Mostert. Almost all of Mitchell’s runs gain big yards."
Shortly after this report, Mitchell was diagnosed with an abductor strain, which ultimately forced him to miss two of the 49ers' three preseason games. In hindsight, this is likely what caused Mitchell to fly under the radar by most in the fantasy community, despite the positive reports out of camp. He was able to return for the final preseason game and rushed six times for 24 yards.
Week 1 Breakout
By the time Week 1 rolled around, Mitchell was fourth on the team's official depth chart, behind Mostert, Sermon, and JaMycal Hasty. Almost no one expected any type of significant snaps on offense, though Mitchell was set to play on special teams along with Hasty. Something that few have mentioned is that Mitchell's special teams prowess could single-handedly be the reason he was active ahead of Sermon, as the latter does not play in those types of scenarios. Either way, when Mostert went down with an injury after only two carries, Shanahan turned to Mitchell as the next man up.
It's hard to read into Sunday's performance too much as there were many factors at play. On one hand, the opponent was weak. Detroit gave up the most rushing touchdowns last year while finishing bottom-five in rushing yards allowed. The matchup can't always be this juicy on a weekly basis. On the other hand, it's likely the Lions didn't spend a ton of time prepping to face Mitchell as the 49ers' RB1. While sharing a similar running style to Mostert, Mitchell is a bit quicker and more agile. It's quite possible the Lions were just as perplexed as we were when Mitchell was active ahead of Sermon. Regardless, Sunday's showing provided a small glimpse into what Mitchell is capable of if given more opportunities in this offense.
The Good
Mitchell did a great job shedding off tackles to get extra yardage. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he ranked third out of all running backs with 10 or more carries with 3.8 Yards After Contact (YCO/A), trailing only David Montgomery and Chris Carson. He also forced six missed tackles (MTF), tying three other running backs for second-most in the league.
Another encouraging sign was that his Elusive Rating (ELU) was among the best in the league. After Week 1, there were only four total running backs with an ELU rating greater than 100.0. Their names? Chris Carson (256.9), Josh Jacobs (134.5), Nick Chubb (127.1), and Mitchell (121.3). When it comes to fantasy football, that is a quality group of guys to be mentioned with. All of that to say, when you put up advanced metrics like the ones listed above, your chances of making SportsCenter skyrocket.
The Bad
There was only one real negative takeaway from Mitchell's Week 1 performance, and it's one all too familiar for those who've rostered a 49ers running back in the past. He was targeted zero times in the passing game. While it could be a fluke, it will surely lower his fantasy ceiling if it becomes common. Mostert was only targeted 2.1 times per game in 2020, which ranked 43rd among running backs and behind guys like Justin Jackson and Kalen Ballage. If Mitchell truly is going to step into the Mostert role as we all expect, the difference between becoming a fantasy superstar or winding up as boring RB2 in a committee will lie within his involvement in the passing game.
What's Next?
At this very moment, Mitchell has all of the momentum and that should carry over into the Week 2 clash against the Philadelphia Eagles. Sermon and Hasty will most likely be involved but this is Mitchell's backfield until further notice. While relying on a running back in Shanahan's system can be intimidating at times, one thing's for sure - he will feed the hot hand. Right now, Mitchell's hands are hotter than fish grease.
While watching this situation unfold, I can't help but think of former Washington Football Team running back Alfred Morris, as fellow RotoBaller contributor Frank Ammirante pointed out on Twitter earlier this week:
In 2012, offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan fed his 6th round rookie RB Alfred Morris. He rushed for 1,613 yards after unexpectedly taking over the backfield.
Now, Shanahan has a new 6th round rookie RB who is surprisingly taking over in Elijah Mitchell.
Pick him up.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) September 15, 2021
Shanahan isn't afraid to play "his guys" regardless of draft capital, and neither should you. If fortunate enough to claim Mitchell off of the waiver wire earlier this week, start him. You could be looking at the next 1,600+ yard rusher in Shanahan's backfield.
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