Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Fortinet Championship

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Tour Championship DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Fortinet Championship. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!

If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Fortinet Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

Silverado Resort & Spa North

7,166 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa Annua Mixed With Bentgrass

Silverado Resort opened in 1957 and has undergone some restorations over the years. Robert Trent Jones in 1967 and Johnny Miller in 2011 would be the two most prominent figures to make changes, but there were fires that also damaged the area in 2017-2018. 

By no means is this course difficult, but I also don’t believe it is as easy as one might think for being a quote-on-quote "resort venue" that sits in wine country. Last year, we saw the winning total creep to just beyond 20-under par, but the typical winning number has hovered between 14-18 under during most iterations of the event. The layout has tight fairways that can quickly close in on you because of the tree-lined nature of the grounds, and deep fairway bunkers will provide an additional hazard for those that are wayward on their opening tee shot. 

Short iron proximity is important with nine of the par-fours measuring under 450 yards, and we have seen the make percentage for birdies come from 0-15 feet 83.2% of the time. In my opinion, there doesn't seem to be a particular way that the venue must be played off the tee, as both short and long hitters have found success in the past, but the ability to score on the par-fives will be important since all four holes feature under a 45% birdie or better rate.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Jon Rahm leads the way at 4/1 and is followed by Webb Simpson at 14/1, Hideki Matsuyama at 20/1 and Kevin Na at 22/1.

Key Stats 

• Proximity 0-150 Yards + Weighted Putting (25%)
• Total Driving (15%)
• Par-Five Birdie or Better (20%)
• SG Total on Par 72s Under 7,200 Yards L100 (15%)
• Poa/Bent Mix L100 (10%)
• Weighted OTT+APP+ATG (15%)

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

• Safest Play: Jon Rahm ($12,100) - Jon Rahm is averaging a fourth-place finish over the last 10 weeks of action, and the cheapest options on the board aren’t significantly worse than players priced above them from a talent perspective. Fitting Rahm into a lineup is more straightforward than it appears, but as always, I will keep an eye on ownership to make sure it doesn’t run wild. Anything sub-40% feels like a gift
• Most Upside: Jon Rahm ($12,100)
• Favorite GPP Play: Webb Simpson ($10,800) - Webb Simpson probably makes the most sense for those trying to pivot away from Jon Rahm, but it does seem possible to cram both into a lineup to create leverage on the field by starting with a more top-heavy approach.
• Fade: Kevin Na ($10,000) - Kevin Na ranks second in my model, so the fade has more to do with the price tag and ownership than anything else. These are normally the spots I try to avoid where price, ownership and everything else is being baked into a golfer, and while I don’t think it is impossible that he beats me, I can live with any result that isn’t a top-two or three in GPPs, which I think is still asking a ton from a volatile player.
• Most Likely Winner: Jon Rahm ($12,100)

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Harold Varner III ($9,100) - HaroldVarner has posted four top-30s at Silverado over the last five years to go along with three top-15 results over the last four PGA Tour events.
• Most Upside: Si Woo Kim ($9,300) - I assume Si Woo Kim is going to go under the radar because he ranks 143rd in this field over his last 24 rounds with his irons, but it is important to note that not all strokes gained data is built equally after Kim lost 16.8 shots with his irons alone at the WGC St. Jude. This venue is much more conducive for him to find success, ranking 3rd ATG, 26th at short courses and seventh in par-five scoring, and I think we can get some upside here at a low ownership total.
• Favorite GPP Play: Marc Leishman ($9,500) - Marc Leishman is elite in a handful of pertinent categories this week. He ranks third in this field on short par 72s, 20th in short iron proximity between 0-150 yards and is first in long iron proximity, which should increase his par-five scoring
• Fade: Cameron Champ ($9,000) - I'll find myself underweight.
• Most Likely Winner: Si Woo Kim ($9,300)

$8,000 Range

• Safest Play: Chez Reavie ($8,500)
• Most Upside: Brandt Snedeker ($8,300)
• Favorite GPP Play: Phil Mickelson ($8,100)
• Fade: Mito Pereira ($8,000)
• Most Likely Winner: Phil Mickelson ($8,100)

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)

• Safest Play: Pat Perez ($7,900)
• Most Upside: Ryan Moore ($7,500)
• Favorite GPP Play: Dylan Frittelli ($7,500), Charles Howell ($7,700), Scott Piercy ($7,000)
• Fade: Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($7,300)
• Most Likely Winner: I like all the upside/favorite GPP plays I listed

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:

Andrew Putnam $6,900, Jason Dufner $6,800, Mark Hubbard $6,500, Kevin Chappell $6,500, Andrew Landry $6,500. J.B. Holmes $6,300, Aaron Baddeley $6,200, Bill Haas $6,200

A lot of volatile options here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few names pop up on the leaderboard.

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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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