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Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 1 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Cowboys and Buccaneers and offers his favorite prop picks and over/under bets for Monkey Knife Fight.
The NFL season is back, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. After six long months, the NFL is finally back, and with that comes a chance to win some money. Tonight, we have our first shot with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Dallas Cowboys.
On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of!
Buccaneers vs Cowboys: More or Less Contest
- Tom Brady OVER 305.5 passing yards
- Dak Prescott OVER 290.5 passing yards
Death. Taxes. Tom Brady continuing to defy father time. These three things are inevitable. A few years ago, the narrative was that Brady was washed up and needed to retire. Now, he’s coming off of one of the best seasons of his career where he was throwing the ball more than ever before while throwing the ball further downfield than ever before. Now, he starts the 2021 season against a Dallas Cowboys’ defense that lacks talent on the back end. Against a Cowboys’ offense that should be able to move the ball, Brady can clear this mark with his arsenal of weapons.
In 2020, the Cowboys’ defense was terrible, and that led to Dak Prescott being on pace to throw for over 6700 yards through the first five games of the season. In 2021, the Cowboys’ defense isn’t much better, and they’ll likely be forcing Dak to chuck the ball all over the place starting in Week 1. Additionally, the best part of the Bucs’ defense is their run defense. Between the lack of running effectiveness and their bad defense, Prescott should be forced to throw and should pass this number.
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Buccaneers vs Cowboys: More or Less Contest
- Amari Cooper OVER 71.5 receiving yards
- Chris Godwin UNDER 65.5 receiving yards
This one is largely tied to the projections for Prescott. Cooper remains the top target for Dak, and, when he’s on the field, he’s one of the best wideouts on the field. For his career with the Cowboys, in the 30 games Cooper has played with Dak, he’s averaged 77.9 yards per game compared to 57.06 in the 17 games without him. If Dak is going to be throwing, Cooper should be able to hit this mark.
Godwin going over the this number has a few things working against him. For one, he’s dealing with an injury coming into tonight’s game. For two, the Bucs have the weapons outside of him to rest him if needed. Wideouts Mike Evans and Antonio Brown flank him along with tight ends Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. If he aggravates the injury, he could quickly leave the game early, and they have enough weapons around him that we could see him suffer due to the work everyone else gets.
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Raiders vs Chargers: More or Less Contest
- Tom Brady OVER 305.5 passing yards
- Dak Prescott OVER 290.5 passing yards
- Amari Cooper OVER 5.5 Receptions
We’ve already talked about this number above, but, just to reiterate, the Cowboys have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Bucs have one of the best wide receiver trios assembled in recent memory. Brady could get on an early roll, and, if he’s able to turn this game into a track meet, he’ll blow past this mark.
Similar to Brady, we’ve already talked about this number. Prescott and the Cowboys are going to have to throw the ball a lot to keep up with the Bucs’ offense. Their defense just doesn’t have the horses to slow down this onslaught. As a result, Prescott should be throwing often. Last season, when trailing, the Cowboys threw the ball on 70 percent of their plays. If Prescott throws the ball 70 percent of the time tonight, he should blast through this mark.
If Cooper hits his yardage prop, he should have no issue hitting six total receptions. While teammate Michael Gallup sees more of the work down the field, Cooper is the guy that is getting the touches between the line of scrimmage and 15 yards down the field. When the safeties are going back to shade towards Gallup, Cooper will grab those extra touches underneath.
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Buccaneers vs Cowboys: Rapid Fire Contest
- Dak Prescott +14.5 passing yards over Tom Brady, CeeDee Lamb +4.5 receiving yards over Amari Cooper & Ezekiel Elliott -12.5 rushing yards over Ronald Jones
The Bucs have the better offense and defense, and, more than likely, Prescott will be forced to throw the ball more, which is where he should be able to cover the spread. This line of picking Lamb over Cooper has to do with Lamb’s big-play ability. Lamb also lines up a lot in the slot, and the Bucs don’t have an overwhelmingly strong slot cornerback. Ezekiel Elliott getting this nod all comes down to the fact that it’s hard to pick between Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette. If Jones is the lead guy, he could cover this mark, but, assuming they split the touches, Elliott should be in the clear.
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