College Football Betting Picks for Week Two (9/11/2021)

College football's first full weekend of games did not disappoint with seven ranked teams falling and several more getting close scares. Georgia's 10-3 win over Clemson, and Notre Dame holding off Florida State, could both be games that have direct implications on the College Football Playoff field, while other games like UCLA's win over LSU or the six FCS-over-FBS upsets goes to show how crazy and unpredictable college football can be sometimes.

Last week's slate gave us a our second 2-1 week. Stanford's feeble offense didn't help our over case or their case for a bowl game appearance this year in the week's only loss. Western Michigan was blown out in Ann Arbor and their offense never got going to cash the under. And to finish the evening, New Mexico State displayed a level of offensive incompetency to the tune of 1.8 yards per carry, three interceptions, and four fumbles, en route to an easy under.  The season-long record is 4-2.

For Week Two of the college football season, here are some expert money-line and over/under betting picks.

Liberty @ Troy (+4)

O/U: 61

Coach Hugh Freeze has overseen the growth and breakout of the Liberty Flames' program over the past several years. You'd have to back to November 2019 to find a game in which the Flames were trailing their opponent by more than seven points at any point during a game. Quarterback Malik Willis is a threat to take it to the house on any play, and he is surrounded by a potent offense that easily dispatched of FCS foe Campbell 48-7 in the opener. At running back, Joshua Mack leads all active FBS rushers with 3,702 career yards, and the speedy Shedro Louis is a big play waiting to happen in both the return game and the running game. The offensive line has a combined 136 career starts, and the receiving corps of Kevin Sha'a, DJ Stubbs and Noah Frith are also all multi-year starters. The one obvious weak-spot for the Flames is that they are breaking in five new defensive starters and did not record a single sack or turnover against the Fighting Camels last week. The Flames will be put to the test against a much more formidable foe this week.

The Troy Trojans manhandled FCS opponent Southern University by a 55-3 score. Third-year head coach Chip Lindsey is still only 11-13 at the historically successful Sun Belt program, but seems to have one of his stronger teams to date. Missouri transfer quarterback Taylor Powell got the start last week and accounted for three total touchdowns in the romp. Second-year running back Kimani Vidal, a 5-foot-7 wrecking ball from Marietta, Georgia, was the team's most effective running back in the shortened 2020 season and has the makings of an elite Sun Belt running back in the years to come. The defense does have star linebacker Carlton Martial, the team's most probable future NFL player, who has 37 career tackles for loss and is a two-time All-Sun Belt first-team performer. Behind Martial, however, lies a wasteland of inexperience with five sophomores and freshmen listed as starters on this week's depth chart.

With a 10-1 record last season and plenty of returning production, including a possible NFL high round draft pick at quarterback, the expectations are high in Lynchburg, Virginia, for the Liberty Flames. The team's 2021 schedule is fairly manageable and if they can navigate their way to the program's first-ever win at Troy, another double-digit win season could be in the cards.  Conversely, Troy is now in year three under Coach Lindsey and hoping to regain its footing in the Sun Belt having been passed up by Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina and Louisiana of late. One interesting tidbit for bettors - Troy has elected to receive the opening kickoff seven of the eight times that the Trojans have won the coin toss under Coach Lindsey, and the Trojans have managed to score a touchdown on that opening drive in six of those seven games.

Pick: Over 61

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Temple at Akron (+7)

O/U: 52.5

The Temple Owls' season-opening 61-14 collapse at the hands of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights was stunning, but also not as bad as the final score might indicate. Temple's offense was anemic, with Georgia transfer quarterback D'Wan Mathis and backup Justin Lynch combing to throw 8-of-28 for 148 yards and Temple turned the ball over a staggering six times. Rutgers only notched 365 total yards, but got the big point total thanks to many short fields afforded them by the Owls' mishaps, with scoring drives of 2, 17, 22, 26 and 28 yards.  Allowing such short fields so often is what doomed Temple, and taking better care of the football will be Coach Rod Carey's top priority this week.

The Akron Zips had the honor of being beaten 60-10 by Auburn in their debut. The Zips managed a net negative-3 yards rushing, but at least didn't force themselves into any turnovers. Coach Tom Arth's team has been rebuilding for three seasons now, and the hope is that a turnaround in production is near. Sophomore quarterback DJ Irons, a 6-foot-6 behemoth from Lawrenceville, Georgia (hometown of the rap group Migos), went 13-for-13 passing in his debut, but he split time with incumbent starter Kato Nelson. The defense, which returned eight starters from the 2020 season, had no solution for Auburn's rushing attack, giving up 100 yards to both Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter. To have any hope of an upset, linebacker Bubba Arslanian and the defensive backfield combo of Reggie Corner and AJ Watts will need to step up and make some splash plays.

The closest equivalent of the dumpster fire that Akron has become over the past few years is the tanking method that the Philadelphia 76ers employed in the early 2010s. The Zips have relied heavily on starting young freshmen, in the hopes that those freshmen develop into strong juniors and seniors down the road. Now, many of Arth's first recruits are juniors and seniors, and the time for production is here. Coach Carey's problem at Temple is a bit more perplexing. The school has a built-in home recruiting base (Philadelphia) that they have been unable to keep top players home, and the program was ravaged by transfers over the last two off-seasons. Until Temple finds stability at quarterback, the 2021 season is likely to be long and uncomfortable.

Pick: Under 52.5

Western Kentucky at Army (-7)

O/U: 51.5

Western Kentucky enjoyed an easy 59-21 opening win over Tennessee-Martin of the Ohio Valley Conference. The offense, led by Houston Baptist transfer quarterback Bailey Zappe's seven touchdown passes, looked promising and likely to pace the team. Zappe entered the year with over 10,000 career passing yards, which ranked first among all NCAA Division I active players. Out of the backfield, North Dakota State transfer running back Adam Cofield and freshman Kye Robichaux shared the carries and offered enough of a compliment to Zappe to keep the defense honest. The receivers, led by Houston Baptist transfers Jerreth Sterns, Ben Ratzlaff and Josh Sterns, as well as Austin Peay transfer DeAngelo Wilson, have a plethora of options that combined to catch eight touchdowns in the opener. The defense turned to its second team in the second quarter, but does return All-Conference USA edge rusher DeAngelo Malone, who has 40 career starts under his belt and 25 career sacks. Coach Tyson Helton has a promising roster in Bowling Green, Kentucky, and if his defense can coalesce, we should see this team go bowling in the postseason.

The Army Black Knights manhandled Georgia State in the opener by a score of 43-10, while attempting only 4 passes. The Black Knights carried the ball 67 times for 258 yards and jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead that they would not relinquish. One of the main keys to their success was getting into manageable third downs (10 of 16), and converting all three of their fourth down attempts. The defense completely zoned in on Georgia State's star receiver Cornelius McCoy, allowing him only one catch for five yards all day.

The service academies' triple-option offense is both difficult to play against and can be tricky to bet on. If the Black Knights charge ahead early, their opponents know they'll be forced to throw the ball in an effort to come back. Luckily for the Hilltoppers, their passing attack, which inherited a quarterback, three wide receivers and an offensive coordinator from pass-happy Houston Baptist over the offseason, looks as strong as ever and could propel Coach Helton's team to a Conference USA championship.

Pick: Western Kentucky money line +230

Bonus Pick

New Mexico State @ New Mexico - Under 56 points

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