X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday 8/10 - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

Mark Kieffer recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 8/10/2021. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!

Hey everyone we are back with another Tuesday betting slate for MLB. Even though we have a full slate of games, I really focus on trying to find where I think some of the best opportunities are in the betting market and make my best guesses there. On many days it might be two or three picks as opposed to trying to have a take for every game out there. I am all about bankroll management and making smart decisions!

I mainly bet on BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone can bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.

We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering, to go along with our awesome premium betting tools. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Jamie Steed (@Baseball_Jimbo) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight and PrizePicks DFS prop picks.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays (Game 1)

O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: TOR -155

LAA: Chris Rodriguez| TOR: Steven Matz

Please make sure you know this is for Game 1, which starts at 4:07 pm Eastern Time. Also, this game is in Anaheim, even though Toronto is the "home team".

Chris Rodriguez (2-1, 3.86) and Steven Matz (9-6, 4.30) are going for Game 1 of this doubleheader. Rodriguez has only pitched 25.2 innings and has only one start on the season. In that start, he pitched fine, going six innings allowing three runs, and collecting seven strikeouts. In that small sample, he has a K-BB% of 12.2% with a K% of 23.5%. Based on those stats, walks can be an issue with Rodriguez. Ideally, I would like to see a pitcher with a BB% of less than 10% along with a K% of more than 20% (which he has).  Matz isn't that much better than Rodriguez. Matz does have a similar K% of 23.6% and a lower BB% of 6.2%.

Although both pitchers have some blow-up potential, I think this game is lower scoring than your typical nine-inning game, despite the mediocre pitching on the mound. Both teams are rested since they did not play on Monday, and the back end of both team's bullpen is good. This is the kind of game where a starting pitcher could go six innings and turn it right over to the closer.  We also may not see full-strength lineups because some guys will potentially not play both parts of the doubleheader.

Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-110)

 

If you love betting on player props, consider signing up for a premium DFS or betting package at RotoBaller and get access to all of the customized strikeout projections that are posted daily in our premium slack chat!

 

Saint Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: STL -120

STL: J.A. Happ| PIT: Steven Brault

I am a little surprised Saint Louis is favored in this game. I understand it is the Pirates, and the Pirates are not a good baseball team. One must also understand that Saint Louis isn't that good either. Steven Brault (0-0, 2.25) made his season debut just this past Wednesday. He pitched fine allowing one run in four innings pitched. Career-wise, Brault isn't that good of a major league pitcher. Every year, he has a SIERA at or over 5.00. In every season but one, he had a K% of under 20% and in all but one year he had a BB% higher than 10%.

Here is the thing though. J.A. Happ (5-6, 6.62) is about at Braults' level this year. His K% is 17.4%, his BB% is 6.9%. His SIERA is 4.90, indicating his pitching should improve, however regressing to a 5.00 ERA is still pretty bad.

Both teams have been struggling with the bad, so for both teams, facing a pitcher that gives up runs like woah might be what the doctor ordered. I am going to take a shot on the over in this game. I hope the bad starting pitching followed up by bad bullpens results in a high-scoring game. Saint Louis' bullpen ERA is 4.32 while Pittsburgh's is 4.68.  This is despite the fact that both offenses are poor and are playing in a pitchers' park in Pittsburgh.

I also get a feeling Brault will pitch better than Happ I do not really have any analysis to back this up, but I think choosing Pittsburgh to win in the first five innings is also a play if you can find it at a good price. Otherwise, if you cannot, I am OK with choosing the Pirates Moneyline.

Pick: Pirates ML (+107) BetMGM, Over 9.5 Runs (+110) BetMGM.

 

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP
10
10
11
14
12
18
13
22
14
24
15
30
16
Max Fried NYY
31
17
41
18
Joe Ryan MIN
42
19
43

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Oneil Cruz

Slugs Two Home Runs in Pirates Victory
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Racks Up Six RBI on Friday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers in Season Debut
MacKenzie Gore

Suffers Leg Injury on Friday
Brandon Nimmo

Leaves Early on Friday With Stiff Neck
Rafael Devers

has Monster Game in Blowout Win Over O's
Rhett Lowder

Dealing With Significant Oblique Strain
Willson Contreras

Scratched on Friday With Back Spasms
MLB

Game 2 Between Red Sox-Orioles Postponed on Friday
Ben Lively

to Have Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Back in the Lineup on Friday
Alex Bregman

Leaves Game 1 of Doubleheader With Quad Tightness
Justin Martinez

Diamondbacks Reinstate Justin Martinez From 15-Day Injured List
Carlos Correa

Officially Activated From Concussion Injured List
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Dealing With Back Tightness
Denzel Clarke

Athletics Promoting Denzel Clarke to Major Leagues
Jose Altuve

Homers Twice, Drives in Four in Win Over Seattle
Christian Yelich

Homers Twice, Drives in Four on Thursday
Logan Gilbert

Slated to Throw Sim Game Friday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Braves Confirm Ronald Acuna Jr. Will Return Friday
Taylor Ward

Blasts Another Grand Slam