RADIO
Frank Dyevoich evaluates the fantasy football outlook for Pittsburgh Steelers rookie running back Najee Harris in redraft and dynasty leagues.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been looking for a featured running back since Le'Veon Bell last graced the gridiron at Heinz Field. Bell held out for all of 2018 due to a dispute over his contract, but that is a story for a different time (Spoiler: it was a bad decision). James Conner took over the reins of the Steelers' backfield in 2018 and finished as the RB6 in fantasy while only playing 13 games. However, that is where the Steelers' rushing success came to a screeching halt.
Conner has failed to live up to expectations, and last year the Steelers had their worst rushing finish since, well, forever because they finished dead last in yards (1,351) and yards per carry (3.6), and second to last in rushing first downs (81). In fact, the Steelers have never finished dead last in rushing yards since at least 1970 (as far back as NFL.com goes).
Head coach Mike Tomlin and the Steelers' brass are desperate to get back to their winning ways with a ground and pound run game and tough defense. Enter Najee Harris with the 24th pick of the first round in the 2021 NFL Draft.
A New Bell Cow
With the 24th pick in the #NFLDraft, we select RB Najee Harris. #SteelersDraft pic.twitter.com/uKyA7FqK0e
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) April 30, 2021
Harris was the unanimous number one running back prospect heading into the 2021 NFL Draft. There were concerns in Pittsburgh that Harris might have been drafted by the Arizona Cardinals with the 16th pick or the Miami Dolphins with the 18th pick, so the Steelers were ecstatic when Harris fell to them at pick 24 and could not get their card in fast enough.
The main concern with Harris that fantasy football managers should be concerned about heading into the 2021 season is the Steelers' offensive line woes, but that should not be too concerning considering Harris is a virtual lock for 300+ touches as Pittsburgh's workhorse running back.
Profile
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
College: Alabama
Height/Weight/40-yard dash: 6'1"/232 lbs./Didn't run
NFL Draft Selection: Round 1, Pick 24
Stats courtesy of sports-reference.com
College Career
Najee Harris was a five-star running back prospect coming out of high school and was widely viewed as the best overall prospect in the country. Despite having his choice of any school in the country, Harris chose Alabama, which continued the Crimson Tide's recruiting dominance over the last decade.
Alabama RB Najee Harris in High School🥶
(via @BleacherReport)
— PFF College (@PFF_College) March 16, 2021
Harris earned carries as a true freshman, but he was fourth in the pecking order behind Bo Scarborough, Damien Harris, and quarterback Jalen Hurts. Josh Jacobs was also on the team, but Harris outcarried him from day one. Regardless, he turned whatever touches he could muster in a loaded backfield into an impressive 6.1 yards per carry (YPC) and showcased an impressive skillset in the receiving game that would only improve going forward. Harris moved up the pecking order in his sophomore season, but he was still behind Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs for lead-back duties. However, it was becoming clear to anyone watching the games that Harris was the most gifted runner out of the three. He averaged a whopping 6.7 YPC (117 carries) compared to Jacobs' 5.3 YPC (120 carries) and Damien Harris' 5.8 YPC (150 carries).
In his junior year, Harris finally earned his chance to show the world what he could do as the featured running back for the Crimson Tide due to the departures of Jacobs and Damien Harris, and boy did he ever. He turned 209 carries into 1,224 yards (5.9 YPC) and 13 rushing touchdowns. He also put his receiving chops on full display and hauled in 27 receptions for 304 yards and another seven touchdowns.
He was a top running back prospect heading into the 2020 NFL Draft, but he surprised the country when he opted to come back to Alabama for his senior year. After a stellar junior campaign, no one was expecting what Harris did in his senior year, probably not even Harris himself. From the first snap of the season, it was clear that Harris was the best running back in the country, and head coach Nick Saban gave him all the work that he could handle. He took the SEC and the nation by storm en route to 1,466 yards and a massive 26 rushing touchdowns and added 43 receptions for 425 yards and another six touchdowns en route to winning the Doak Walker Award (nation's best running back) and a National Championship.
Highest graded SEC RBs over the last seven seasons:
1. Najee Harris, Bama - 94.6
2. Nick Chubb, UGA - 93.3
3. Derrius Guice, LSU - 93.3
4. Sony Michel, UGA - 91.2
t-5. Alvin Kamara, TENN - 90.5
t-5. Leonard Fournette, LSU - 90.5 pic.twitter.com/7kQMqst8my— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 19, 2021
2020 was a magical season for Harris. He led the SEC in virtually every rushing statistic, and he was number one in the country in rushing touchdowns (26), yards from scrimmage (1,891), and total touchdowns (30). His 30 total touchdowns set an Alabama record, surpassing Derrick Henry's 28 in 2015, and accounted for an incredible 35.7% of Alabama's touchdowns. He leaves Tuscaloosa as the program's all-time leader in rush yards (3,843), rushing touchdowns (46), and total touchdowns (57).
One of my favorite summer evaluations so far has been #Alabama RB Najee Harris (6-2, 230, Sr.). He treats every time he touches the ball as if it's his last one ever. pic.twitter.com/yK42AoGWMT
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) May 15, 2020
Scouting Report
Najee Harris is clearly the best running back prospect in this draft class. Many teams employ a running back by committee approach, but Harris is one of the rare prospects that should jump right into a three-down role in the NFL. Harris has the perfect combination of speed, power, and elusiveness. He did not run the 40-yard dash at either of Alabama's Pro Days, but when you watch him play, he displays excellent burst off his plant-foot and he has enough to juice to outrun even the fastest linebackers.
He does not have home-run speed, but chunk plays will be routine for him. Watching Harris run the rock is like watching poetry in motion. He has great patience to let the holes develop in his offensive line, excellent vision to find and hit the cut-back lane at just the right moment, and deceptive lateral agility for his size. He also possesses excellent contact balance and has an array of moves in the open field to help him evade and force missed tackles, utilizing his thunderous stiff-arm, elite stop and start ability, fluid spin moves, and uncanny ability to hurdle incoming defenders.
Najee Harris’ 2021 projections:
🔥 1,047 rushing yards
🔥 347 rec yards
🔥 9 total TDsEvery single hurdle at Alabama 🤯
— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 21, 2021
He also possesses elite receiving skills out of the backfield which all but guarantees that he will be on the field in passing situations and on hurry-up drives. He is a natural hands catcher, and he slips tackles after the catch better than anyone, as evidenced by his 22 forced missed tackles on receptions in 2020 (the next highest is 13). Harris also has the elite power that is coveted by teams at the next level. He refuses to be tackled, his legs never stop churning, and he can push the pile with the best of them (see clip above from high school). In the clip below, Harris displays every single trait that makes him an elite running back prospect in one single play.
NAJEE HARRIS, YOU CAN'T BE SERIOUS!
• Run someone over
• Hurdle someone
• Drag someone into the end zone pic.twitter.com/pFnPok0HU3— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) September 14, 2019
Watch as he stops on a dime to execute the drag route and comes wide open. He secures the ball with his hands before looking upfield and then turns on the jets. His spatial awareness allows him to see the incoming defender and he downshifts his speed so the defender overpursues the run. He uses the defender's momentum against him and throws him to the ground with a devastating stiff-arm. At this point, the 4th down was converted, but Harris never gives up on a play when there are more yards to be gained. He continues downfield and telegraphs the low tackle attempt of the next incoming defender, to which he effortlessly hurdles him like a step stool. The last two defenders try to push him out of bounds, but Harris brushes the weak arm tackles aside and cruises into the endzone. This play is truly a masterpiece from the Crimson Tide legend.
2021 Fantasy Outlook
The Steelers were the worst rushing offense in the NFL last season and as a result, they drafted Najee Harris to right the ship. The biggest concern with Harris' prospective fantasy production is the horrendous offensive line that the Steelers will be rolling out this season. Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranked the Steelers as the 17th offensive line at the end of the season, but it was night and day for the line in terms of pass blocking and run blocking. The Steelers' line finished as the fourth-best in terms of pass blocking, but they came in second to last in run blocking. What's even more disturbing is that Alejandro Villanueva was their best run blocker and he left in free agency to join the rival Baltimore Ravens. Heading into the 2021 season, PFF has the Steelers offensive line ranked 31st, just ahead of the New York Giants. If we were just basing running backs' fantasy potential off of each team's offensive line, Harris would be one of the worst options, but thankfully, much more goes into evaluating a running back's fantasy potential, including the most correlative element for predicting fantasy success, volume.
Volume is king in fantasy football. A running back's heavy workload trumps any concerns over offensive line woes and rushing efficiency because the more times a player touches the ball, the more fantasy points they will score. It sounds silly to point that out, but many people fail to realize this critical point. Take Saquon Barkley, for example. In his rookie season, he played behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league; however, he saw 352 touches and turned them into 2,028 yards from scrimmage and 15 total touchdowns to finish as the RB1 on the year. Harris is in a similar situation volume-wise, but he has a much better supporting cast which should take some of the pressure out of the box. I'm not suggesting he will finish as the RB1 as Barkley did, but top-12 is a virtual lock assuming full health.
Some more evidence of volume trumping offensive line inefficiency can be seen last year. The Los Angeles Chargers had the worst offensive line in the league according to PFF, yet Austin Ekeler averaged 18 PPR points per game. In his healthy games, Ekeler saw 18.5 total touches, which I think is the floor for Najee Harris this season. You could make the argument that Ekeler's production mainly came through the air, but that is a non-issue since Harris should see heavy usage in the receiving game as well. How about a running back with minimal receiving chops?
Last year, the maven of inefficiency, Kalen Ballage, was the feature back for the Chargers for three games where he averaged 21 touches and 15 PPR points per game. He only scored one touchdown in that span. Still not convinced? Let's talk about Benny Snail, --I mean Snell. Snell is an excellent example for projecting Najee Harris because he ran behind the pathetic Steelers offensive line last year, as Harris will do this year. Snell averaged 3.3 YPC on the season, but in the three games where he handled featured-back duties, he saw an average of 19.6 touches and scored 14 fantasy points per game while only scoring one touchdown. If Benny Snell can average 14 PPR points per game off of pure volume, there should be no concerns for Najee Harris' potential to be a top-12 fantasy running back in 2021.
Harris's role in the receiving game should also offset any offensive line inefficiencies because running back receptions are approximately 1.5 times more valuable than carries. Don't believe me? Derrick Henry rushed for 2,027 yards on 378 carries and scored 17 touchdowns last season in one of the most prolific rushing performances of all time, but he finished as the RB3 in fantasy football. This is because the two players ahead of him (Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara) scored 55.7 and 158.2 more fantasy points than Henry (30.4) in the receiving game. Harris is a candidate for 250+ carries, but he should also see somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-65 receptions. The worrisome offensive line will likely lead to a ton of pressure in the face of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, and since he can scramble about as well as a tree at this stage in his career, it should lead to a ton of check-down passes to Harris.
So what can we expect from Harris in 2021? Given head coach Mike Tomlin's history of utilizing one feature running back, Harris should easily see 80% of the running back touches. Le'Veon Bell averaged 24 touches per game with the Steelers, and while that is a lofty number that Harris probably won't hit this year, it is certainly in his range of outcomes. I have Harris projected for 291 carries, 63 receptions, and 11 total touchdowns.
My projection rounds out to about 21 touches per game. He is being drafted at the beginning of the second round in redraft leagues with an ADP of RB12 and I am more than comfortable taking him there as my RB1 or RB2 if I start RB/RB. RB12 feels like his floor and we love drafting guys at their floor. He should also get off to a scorching start since three of his first four games come against bad defenses in the Raiders, the Bengals, and the Packers, so I can all but guarantee that no one who rosters Harris will have buyer's remorse.
Dynasty Outlook
While Harris is going as the RB12 in redraft leagues, his position in dynasty sits at RB6, and he should be the first pick in 1QB rookie drafts. It does not appear Mike Tomlin is going anywhere so we can safely project Harris to have one of the heaviest workloads over the next two to four years. Ben Roethlisberger is on his last legs and whoever the Steelers choose to replace him will have to lean heavily on Harris in the years to come. He has the talent, skills, and God-given rushing abilities to be an elite running back in the NFL, and he landed with a team and a coach that has routinely produced top-tier fantasy running backs.
The only running backs that I would take before Harris in a dynasty startup are Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Alvin Kamara, and I would not be surprised if this list is cut in half by next season.
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