WR Stats You Need to Know Before Draft Day

Adam Koffler reveals WR stats fantasy football managers need to know for key wide receivers before draft day in 2021.

In my first article of this series, I highlighted running back stats you need to know before Draft Day. Next up, wide receivers. Below are some tweets of mine that are filled with wide receiver stats you need to know prior to drafting your fantasy football teams in 2021. I'll explain what these stats mean and how to interpret the information to gain a competitive advantage over your league-mates this season.

This three-part series will finish with an article highlighting tight end stats you need to know before Draft Day.

But for now, let's dive right into some wide receiver stats!

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Is Michael Pittman Jr. in for a Year Two Breakout?

“I’m betting big on Michael Pittman, who I think’s got a chance to be really good,” said Colts General Manager Chris Ballard at the onset of training camp. At 6'4", 220 lbs, running a 4.5 40-yard dash, he brings a rare combination of size and speed to the wide receiver room in Indianapolis. Per PlayerProfiler, Pittman has a size-adjusted speed score of 111.2, which is in the 93rd percentile of all wide receivers in the NFL.

At a minimum, he's an extraordinary athlete. At his peak, he's the Colts' new alpha WR1. T.Y. Hilton has been that guy for Indianapolis since 2013, but he's on the wrong side of 30 and saw his lowest snap share and target share last season. Parris Campbell is apparently 100% healthy, but he's missed a total of 23 games his first two seasons. And Zach Pascal, while he's never missed a game in his three-year career, has never seen more than 4.5 targets per game in any one season.

Including the playoffs, Pittman played in 14 games his rookie season but started just eight of them. In the 11 games he played over 70% of the snaps, he averaged 5.8 targets per game. That includes the lone postseason game where he played on 90% of the snaps and saw a career-high 10 targets from Philip Rivers. He got better as the season progressed and the coaching staff found ways to scheme him the ball. That won't be any different in 2021.

Furthermore, new Colts QB Carson Wentz brings a skill-set much different than Rivers, and one that more closely resembles Andrew Luck. In Luck's final season with the Colts in 2018, WR1 T.Y. Hilton caught 76 passes for 1,270 yards and six touchdowns on 120 targets despite missing two games. Wentz just underwent foot surgery, but if he returns on the earlier side of his recovery timeline (five weeks) which is a distinct possibility, we could see Pittman start to break out in his second season sooner rather than later. Get him the ball in space, and let the YAC monster go to work.

Is This Finally the Year Mike Williams Puts it All Together?

Big Mike Williams was in some pretty rarified air (no pun intended) when it came to the air yards metric last season. The opportunities were plentiful, but Williams dealt with nagging injuries and a rookie quarterback that wasn't entirely accurate on the deep ball. Per PlayerProfiler, Williams had a catchable target rate of just 65.9% in 2020, ranked 100th amongst wide receivers. At the same time, he ranked 12th in deep targets and 15th in yards per reception.

When he played a full complement of snaps last season, Williams was highly targeted by Herbert. In fact, he had eight games with seven or more targets. That was more than Chris Godwin and D.J. Chark, and the same number as Adam Thielen. And we've heard all off-season that he's rearing up to play the "X" receiver position in new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi's scheme in 2021. That same position was played by Michael Thomas back in New Orleans when Lombardi was the offensive coordinator for the Saints.

Herbert's rocket arm mixed with Lombardi's new role for Williams could lead to a big year for Big Mike Williams. The former 2017 first-round pick will look to ball out in a contract year in hopes of getting a big payday after this season.

Can Cooper Kupp Bounce Back From a Down Year in 2020?

There's no denying Jared Goff was bad last season, and Cooper Kupp suffered as a result. He posted his lowest yards per target (7.85), yards per catch (10.59), and touchdown total (3) in his four-year career. In his first three seasons, he never went more than 19 targets without scoring a touchdown. In 2020, he only scored a touchdown every 41.3 targets. He saw just 13 red-zone targets in 2020 compared to 21 red-zone targets in 2019.

But garnering targets has never been an issue for Kupp. He's had over a 22% target share each of the last two seasons. That will likely continue this season. The Rams didn't bring in any notable pass-catchers in the offseason. They signed 34-year old speedster DeSean Jackson, but he's not in any shape to take away significant targets from primary pass-catchers Kupp or Robert Woods. Van Jefferson flashed some potential last season, and could possibly take on the Josh Reynolds role from a year ago, but that's still just five targets per game.

Furthermore, the unfortunate injury to Cam Akers could also force head coach Sean McVay to lean more on the passing attack. Combine the expected large target share with the upgrade to Matthew Stafford at quarterback, and Kupp looks primed to bounce big in a big way this season.

Bonus: Justin Jefferson Ready to Explode in 2021

Let's keep this short and sweet - in those 14 games started, Justin Jefferson was fourth amongst all wide receivers in target share (27.4%) after Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and DeAndre Hopkins. However, he saw just the 53rd-most red-zone targets (14). Adam Thielen on the other hand had 23 red-zone targets, the fourth-most amongst all players last season. These numbers could easily flip this season, and we could see Jefferson as the one with 12+ touchdowns in this Vikings offense. Consider drafting Jefferson after the top-four wide receivers are off the board (Adams, Tyreek Hill, Diggs, Calvin Ridley).

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