RADIO
Last Saturday was another brutal tale of "so close, yet so far". The Braves and Phillies combined for ten runs in the last two innings to deny us the under. Despite walking eight batters, Kyle Gibson still managed to last six innings and got his fourth K in the sixth to deny us the under. Then Chris Bassitt came up one strikeout short after only completing five innings. That made it a rough couple of days so there'll be no more bad luck this month and we'll crush it this weekend.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Daily articles covering a range of picks are available and you can always hit up any of the team on Twitter (@BellRoto, @stevejanik6, @LucidMediaDFS, @kipppsta, @MarkStrausberg, @Mark_Kieffer, @ThunderDanDFS and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 4-8 (-4.27 U)
- O/U Record: 7-11-1 (-3.80 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-2.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 5-13 (-6.12 U)
- Prop Record: 17-15 (+2.23 U)
Before we begin, remember that the trade deadline is 4pm ET today and if Thursday showed us anything, we should expect plenty of activity. With no game starting until three hours after the deadline, it's worth holding off on making your picks until as late as possible to ensure you're not backing a team who then trade away their best players.
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CLE +165, CWS -195
CLE: J.C. Mejia | CWS: Lance Lynn
Over the last fortnight, these two teams have had two of the worst offenses. Since July 15th, the White Sox rank 27th in wRC+ (84) while the Indians rank 28th (81). Over the whole of July, the Indians 90 wRC+ is 28th and since the start of the season, they rank 26th with a wRC+ of 87.
In July, the White Sox have a 113 wRC+ which ranks third so shows how rough things have been recently. Since last weekend, they've scored just 15 runs in seven games (2.14 per game) and 48 runs in their 14 games since the All-Star Break (3.43 per game).
Lynn is a frontrunner for the AL Cy Young award with a 1.91 ERA from his 18 starts (103.2 IP). Since his worst outing of the season on June 19th, when the Astros scored six earned runs in four innings against him, Lynn has put up a 1.29 ERA in 28.0 IP (five starts) and hasn't allowed more than one earned run. That Houston start is the only time this year Lynn has allowed more than three earned runs and nine of his last twelve appearances have been quality starts.
Mejia is starting for the Indians and he's having a disastrous rookie campaign. This will be his thirteenth appearance of the season (tenth start) and he has a 7.52 ERA and an 11.12 ERA in July (four starts and 17.0 IP). He has been pretty unlucky this month though as he has a 4.58 xFIP and 4.39 SIERA.
Even if the White Sox put up some runs against Mejia, their offense hasn't been impressive lately and shouldn't put up huge numbers early. Lynn should be able to shut down the Indians offense so I'm expecting a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Total runs over/under - Under 8.5 (-115) 1 Unit
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SEA -120, TEX +100
SEA: Logan Gilbert | TEX: Kolby Allard
Gilbert isn't officially listed as the starting pitcher today but is expected to make the start.
Gilbert is quietly having a great rookie campaign after a rough start saw his ERA sit at 9.45 after his first two starts. Entering today, his ERA sits at 3.81 which is the same as his xFIP which shows his ERA is warranted. He struggled in his last start against the Athletics, allowing three earned runs in 2.2 IP but his July ERA still sits at a healthy 3.05 ERA.
Allard is trending in the opposite direction. After joining the rotation in late May, his first four starts had an ERA of 2.70 but his ERA on the year now sits at 4.71 and in July, he's sporting a 7.84 ERA. Allard has allowed 12 earned runs in 9.1 IP over his last two outings.
The Rangers traded away star hitter Joey Gallo this week and their offense has been woeful since the All-Star Break, with a 40 wRC+ which is by far the worst in MLB. They ended a 12-game losing streak on Tuesday by beating the Diamondbacks but promptly lost the second game of the two-game series. A game in which their lineup consisted of Curtis Terry, Jason Martin and Eli White hitting second with a .183/.266/.323 line on the year.
The Mariners have been making deals in a bid to not only improve the team in the long run but with an eye on the Wildcard this year. After trading away closer Kendall Graveman, they've since added Tyler Anderson and Diego Castillo along with Abraham Toro from the Astros in the Graveman deal.
Since the All-Star Break, the Mariners have a 7-5 record and have scored 61 runs in 12 games (5.08 per game). They have won seven of the ten games against the Rangers this year and I fully expect them to make it eight from 11 today.
Pick: Moneyline - Mariners (-120) 2 Units
Pick: Runline - Mariners -1.5 (+150) 1 Unit
Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PHI -130, PIT +120
PHI: Vince Velasquez | PIT: Wil Crowe
The Phillies are holding on to hopes of catching the Mets in the NL East following a difficult series against the Nationals. They salvaged a split series with an 11-8 win in game 2 of yesterday's double-header but needed seven runs in the seventh to tie it before a walk-off grand slam from Brad Miller. That leaves the Phillies with an even 51-51 record.
The Pirates have been dreadful all year, yet still had two hitters starting for the National League in the All-Star Game. Adam Frazier was traded to the Padres earlier this week and their lineups haven't exactly been inspiring. But their offense does have a 107 wRC+ in July which is tenth best in MLB although, since the All-Star Break, they rank 25th with a 99 wRC+. The Brewers shut them out twice this week and the Pirates only managed 13 hits in the three-game series.
Velasquez has been pretty terrible this year with a 5.54 ERA from his 79.2 IP (16 starts and four relief appearances). He has a 7.67 ERA from his last six starts (27.0 IP) and in amongst them are 12 shutout innings against the Marlins in two starts. Against all other teams not the Marlins, Velasquez actually has a 7.15 ERA this year and his 6.17 road ERA is considerably worse than his 5.04 home ERA.
Crowe hasn't been any better with a 5.89 record from 15 appearances (14 starts and 65.2 IP). The fact his four July starts (20.0 IP) have yielded a 4.50 ERA does give some hope he can be a viable Major League starter for the Pirates but the early results haven't been promising.
Bryce Harper left Thursday's game with a stiff back but said he expects to play tonight. The Phillies should be buoyed by their comeback win yesterday and there's a chance the Pirates bullpen might be depleted by trades today. The fact they have so few desirable assets on offense tells its own story.
Pick: Runline - Phillies -1.5 (+125) 1 Unit
Pick: Total runs - Over 8.5 (-115) 1 Unit
If you don't want to go with the runlines for the games individually, you can parlay the two at odds of +462 instead.
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