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Hey everyone, good afternoon/evening/early AM, and welcome to RotoBaller's coverage of League of Legends DFS for both FanDuel and DraftKings. Be on the lookout for coverage of the LCS and LEC as well as we have some great analysts (not to toot my own horn) covering all LoL leagues for the Summer Split. Today, I'll be focusing on the 4-game LPL/LCK slate starting at 4 A.M. EST.
First off I want to make sure we're on the same page in the article. This is going to be primarily GPP based especially with the 20k to first contest tonight. Now there are a ton of ways to get different and gain leverage over the field, but the one that is easiest is playing underdogs. No dog looks good tonight, especially not V5. While I wont have any V5, god bless them, I will be looking to utilize all other underdog stacks in my lineups. Likely I'll be using more of KT and RW than I will of LSB as I think sandbox comes in as the most popular route to "get different" which will end up making them chalky. Either way, I'm going to be heavily using underdogs on this slate. Most importantly, There's only a 33.15% chance that all 3 favorites outside of EDG all win. that's nearly 70% of the time where at least one dog wins, just some food for thought.
Today I'll be bringing you my League of Legends advice and analysis for the five-game LCS slate that locks on Friday, July 30th, at 4:00 AM. Thanks for reading, you can find me on Twitter @nvanhareDFS for more DFS related content!
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LCK Matchups
GEN.G(-284) vs. KT Rolster (+324)
Gen.G has terrible stats long-term in terms of kill totals and other ceiling-related metrics for DFS. However, every once in a while they get their killing caps on and go to town. KT is a team with some new guys seeing the rift, and they've played exceptionally well in wins for DFS, and they're about 28.5% implied to win. On a slate with so many heavy favorites of course I'm going to make sure to have exposure to them.
Another interesting point is that Gen.G likely comes in as a very high-owned team, more so than other favorites. Their pricing is very reasonable with them and NS actually affordable to play alongside other favorites. This is similar to last night in which DWG was very chalky because they were an affordable favorite, similar odds to the other favorites. It's likely that KT is my highest-owned underdog as they'll come in very low-owned.
My top plays from each team if you choose to use them are based on my model's perceived upside of a player and the importance of using them in their team stack.
Top GEN Plays: Rascal, Bdd
Top KT Plays: 5Kid, Dove
Nongshim RedForce(-165) vs. Liiv SandBox (+136)
This game in general likely draws a ton of ownership. NS is one of the cheapest favorites, and LSB is the smallest underdog. For these reasons, both teams should see heightened ownership as a result. I'll likely be nearly even on this game with a slight edge given to LSB lineups assuming they come in lower owned. It's truly a toss up but given the likelihood of this game having high ownership, I probably stray away from a large amount of exposure to this game. Sure LSB is the most likely underdog to win, but they're going to double if not triple the ownership of both RW and KT, so I like them a little bit less than I would if they were the same odds as RW/KT.
Overall, a game I generally am likely to be under the field on. Good game for DFS but gauging ownership is huge on this slate, and I think this one attracts a ton.
Top NS plays: Peanut, Kellin
Top LSB plays: Croco, Fate
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LPL Games
V5(+1762) vs EDG (-4030)
This game is not one I suggest using the underdog from. Sure it'll be insanely low-owned if they win, but at 4% to win there are just better spots to take. V5 has been absolutely horrendous this split while EDG has been incredibly good. This isn't a spot to get out of line in.
I do think that EDG stacks are probably over-owned in this spot but I'll still definitely have a good amount. I'll only be pairing this team with the underdogs on this slate or with some sort of weird one-off If I'm pairing with a favorite.
Top V5(if you're crazy enough) Plays: pzx, Uniboy
Top EDG Plays: Flandre, Meiko
Rogue Warriors (+298) vs. Team WE(-393)
Last game on the slate to talk about, and one of my favorites to target. Team WE are just as expensive as EDG are but are less favored, leading to what I perceive to be slightly lower ownership. RW is the biggest (viable) dog to roster on this slate and this should also lead to lower ownership. On a chalky slate with 20k to first in the main GPP, ownership is everything and I'll be targeting this game heavier than the EDG game. RW is also my favorite dog to utilize on this slate, as they likely will carry the lowest ownership. We've seen them win as major underdogs as well as take games off of some of the top teams in the league. In my opinion, beating Team WE is definitely a possibility and I'd like to catch the upside when it does happen.
Top RW Plays: Betty, Xiaohao
Top WE Plays: Breathe, Elk
Summary
- Dogs are everything on this slate. If no dog wins, I'm in for a rough one.
- Gen.G is my least favorite team that's favored to play, their ownership is likely to be very high given their pricing and I'd rather take my chances elsewhere.
- Who doesn't love an RW slate? I've been burning money on them for a year now, it's about time they paid me back.
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