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Mark Kieffer recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 7/27/2021. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Tonight we have a full 15 games slate. It can be tempting to place a lot of bets, I try to limit my action to no more than four to five wagers in a day, sometimes more like two or three. It all depends on the slate. If you have read any of my other work, it may not come as a surprise that I am going to say that it is really important to exercise sound bankroll management, and to bet responsibly!
I mainly bet on BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone is able to bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
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Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: PHI -125
WAS: Erick Fedde| PHI: Matt Moore
Erick Fedde (4-7, 4.88) vs. Matt Moore (0-2, 5.79), not the matchup dreams are made of..... Unless you are a batter for one of these two teams! Neither starting pitcher is any good, neither bullpen is any good. The Nationals bullpen has a 4.59 ERA while the Phillies bullpen has a 4.66 ERA.
After coming out of the All-Star break hot, the Nationals are now 1-4 in their last five games, while Philadelphia is 2-3. It would be fair to say that both teams have been disappointing this season relative to what people expected.
Because the pitching matchup is so poor, it's hard to get an idea of who will win. But one thing I am seeing in this game is runs. If you can get a total of around 9.5, as it was at the time of this writing, I wouldn't hesitate. If it's at something like 11 runs when you see it, I would pause a little.
Two bad starters, two bad bullpens, hot summer weather, hitters park, give me the over!
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110) BetMGM
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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
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Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
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St. Louis Cardinals @ Cleveland Indians
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: STL -110
STL: Adam Wainwright| CLE: Cal Quantrill
I don't know how Adam Wainwright (7-6, 3.56) keeps doing what he's doing. A few years ago, he looks washed and now he's putting up a pretty good season. Cal Quantrill (2-2, 3.84), is pitching better than he has over the course of his career. In July alone, Quantrill is (2-0) with an ERA of 3.22; he lowered his season ERA from 4.20 to 3.84.
Wainwright is having the better overall season, Quantrill has been about even with Wainwright pitching-wise his last four starts (Wainwright in July is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA).
Looking at the bullpens, Cleveland has an edge with an ERA of 3.53 (2nd best in the AL) while St. Louis has a middle of the pack bullpen ERA of 4.43.
So naturally, we pick Cleveland right?
Actually, I am not. While Cleveland does have equal to slightly better pitching than Saint Louis, they need to score runs. On Sunday, they trotted out a lineup with Harold Ramirez, Bobby Bradley, and Oscar Mercado as the 3-4-5 hitters while Franmil Reyes sat out with back spasm.
I can see a lower scoring game, with the Cards just doing enough to win, going against a pretty weak Cleveland lineup.
Pick: St. Louis (-105) BetMGM
Chicago White Sox@ Kansas City Royals
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: CWS -150
CHI: Dylan Cease| KC: Brad Keller
I have never been a Dylan Cease (7-6, 4.21) believer, and for the first couple of months this season he proved me wrong. In April, he went 1-0 with a 2.96 ERA. In May we went 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA. June was an interesting month as he picked up 4 wins going 4-2 with a 5.04 ERA. In July, he has gone 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA. Looking at his Statcast Data, Cease's Four Seam Fastball has an expected batting average of .284, an expected slugging percentage of 0.500, and a whiff rate of 22.6%. The rest of his pitches have expected batting averages in the .100s, slugging percentages below 0.250, and whiff rates in the 40% range.
The other bad thing about Cease? He throws his four seamer about 46% of the time. Oh, and he's going against Jorge Soler, who is red hot having hit 2 HR on Sunday, and then 2 HR last night on Monday.
Brad Keller (7-9, 5.84) we know the story here. He's not a good MLB pitcher. His changeup, four seamer, and sinker all have expected batting averages near or over .300 and expected slugging percentages near or over .500. His slider is boom or bust: 30.2% whiff rate, 31.7% K% but also his hardest-hit pitch with a 51% hard-hit rate.
Now that it's been established that both pitchers are gas cans, I think it's easy to see where I am going with this. The White Sox lineup is good (4th in the MLB in runs scored) and Keller is bad. The Royals lineup isn't that good (25th in the MLB in runs scored), but they have a locked in slugger in Soler and are facing a pitcher that's struggling right now.
Add to the mix the Royals' bullpen is 10th in the AL with a 4.69 ERA to come in an relieve a pitcher that is giving up tons of runs and hard contact and it's easy to see where I am going with these picks
Picks: Over 9.5 (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook, White Sox ML (-150) DraftKings Sportsbook
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