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Adam Koffler breaks down Clyde Edwards-Helaire's fantasy football outlook with the Kansas City Chiefs heading into the 2021 season and how he could finish as RB1.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire burned a lot of fantasy managers last season.
After Damien Williams opted out of the COVID-ridden 2020 NFL season, Edwards-Helaire's Average Draft Position (ADP) skyrocketed. He was being taken as the sixth or seventh running back off the board, and for good reason. He was hand-picked by Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid as their running back of choice in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. He was taken ahead of what we now view as star running backs, D'Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, and Antonio Gibson. Plus, history was on his side as a feature tailback for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Things didn't quite turn out as expected, though. So why should 2021 be any different?
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Kansas City RBs in the Mahomes Era
Mahomes took over as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback in 2018. Kareem Hunt, just like Edwards-Helaire, was in his second season as the feature back in the Kansas City offense. In 11 games, he averaged 19.7 opportunities (carries + targets) per game. Despite missing five games, he still managed to get 22 carries from inside the 10-yard line. For comparison, Ezekiel Elliott averaged 20.3 carries per game and played four more games in 2018 and managed to get the same number of carries from inside the 10. Hunt scored 14 total touchdowns that season.
Then, at the tail-end of 2018 and during the 2019 season, Damien Williams became a star in the Kansas City offense. Including the playoffs, the undrafted and career journeyman rushed for over 100 yards in five of 17 games as the lead back. He also saw five or more targets in 12 of those games. In his four previous seasons with the Dolphins, Williams was used in a secondary role and never eclipsed 78 rushing yards in a single game. Once again, another running back who thrived in a Mahomes-led Chiefs offense.
Edwards-Helaire as a Rookie in 2020
It was a tale of two seasons for the former LSU standout. He came out of the gates in Week 1 as a workhorse, rushing 25 times for 138 yards and a touchdown against the Houston Texans. He remained heavily involved in the offense through Week 6, averaging 113.7 total yards on 17.8 carries and 5.2 targets per game over that stretch. Then the Chiefs signed veteran running back Le'Veon Bell and Edwards-Helaire's role was slashed in half.
Sure, Edwards-Helaire was sharing the workload with Darrell Williams for the first six weeks of the season, but the coaching staff wasn't force-feeding him touches. With Bell, the Chiefs felt an obligation to manufacture touches for him. He was generally inefficient with those touches too, averaging just four yards per carry on 63 carries in nine games. But more importantly, Edwards-Helaire's fantasy value took a nose-dive. He averaged just 59.7 total yards on 10.6 carries and 3.3 targets in seven games played alongside Bell.
But why did the Chiefs bring in Bell last season? Did they see something in Edwards-Helaire the first six weeks of the season that made them think he couldn't handle a full workload, or were they simply enamored by the idea of rostering a former All-Pro running back? Recall, they brought in 30-year old LeSean McCoy in 2019 only for him to fizzle out down the stretch heading into the playoffs. So maybe Kansas City has finally learned its lesson, to not bring in aging veterans and instead utilize the resources you already have in place. But will they use Edwards-Helaire in a featured role like they did the first six weeks of the 2020 season? Coach Reid envisions it:
What to Expect from Edwards-Helaire in 2021
It wouldn't be too farfetched to think Edwards-Helaire sees, at a minimum, a workload similar to what he saw in Weeks 1 - 6 his rookie season. In addition to the possibility of seeing 22-23 opportunities per game, the second-year running back will be working behind a much-improved offensive line. According to PFF, the Chiefs' offensive line ranks seventh heading into the 2021 season after acquiring two-time Pro-Bowl T Orlando Brown and signing LG Joe Thuney to a massive contract in free agency.
The Chiefs led the NFL in offensive yards per game in two of the last three seasons, 2018 and 2020. In those two seasons, Mahomes threw for an average of 4,919 yards and 44 touchdowns. In 2019, he threw for just 4,031 yards and 26 touchdowns (in 14 games) and the Chiefs still finished sixth in offensive yards per game. No matter how you slice it, this team is built to move the ball up and down the field and will continue to score points in bunches. If history tells us anything, Edwards-Helaire should easily add onto his touchdown total (five) from his rookie campaign.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2021 Projection (17 games):
- 272 carries
- 1,214 rushing yards
- Eight rushing touchdowns
- 76 targets
- 54 receptions
- 372 receiving yards
- Four receiving touchdowns
His projected 16.7 PPR points per game would have made him the RB10 last season. All indications out of Kansas City this offseason are that Edwards-Helaire should be used in a featured role in 2021. If he sees a 65% snap share (which he did in five of his first six games), his floor is as safe as any second-year running back, while his ceiling is a top-five back in PPR leagues given his usage as both a runner and a pass-catcher.
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