Pierre Camus' Bold Predictions - 2021 Fantasy Football

After the chaos of last season, it's hard to categorize any prediction as outrageous or overly bold. The top two picks in fantasy drafts were complete wastes due to injury, UDFA James Robinson was better than Ezekiel Elliott, Jeff Wilson Jr. was a fantasy playoff MVP... and that's just at running back. Given the offseason drama with Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson and vaccine controversies, it's going to be another interesting year of football for sure.

To give some perspective to this year's version of bold predictions, I'll provide a visual representation of how "spicy" each take is in my opinion. Credit to @DirtyDollarBill on Sleeper for the inspiration and GOAT grocery store chain HEB for the graphic.

Now, I present my 2021 bold predictions for fantasy football.

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DK Metcalf Finishes as Overall WR1

Let's start mild, as this doesn't even feel like a spicy take. Gage Bridgford has already put forth a compelling case for Metcalf as WR1. Among the highlights:

He (Metcalf) finished as WR7 last season, and there were fewer than 20 points separating WR4 through WR7 in PPR scoring. He caught 83 passes on 129 targets last season. Among the six wide receivers that finished ahead of him, he was last in receptions among those seven players, and only rookie wideout Justin Jefferson saw fewer targets. Metcalf was punching with the top dogs at the position, and he wasn’t even seeing the same workload that they were.

It's far from unthinkable to imagine Metcalf seeing an uptick in targets. The receiving corps is basically him and Tyler Lockett. Last year's target share leaders for Seattle looked like this:

The top three remain but Olsen, Moore, Hollister, Hyde are all gone. Their replacements include tight end Gerald Everett and third-round wideout selection D'Wayne Eskridge, who is on PUP. That's it.

Metcalf is a home-run hitter, red-zone monster, and target hog all rolled in one. There are a handful of receivers I could envision taking the mantle of WR1 this year including Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, or Davante Adams again. I'll put Metcalf up there with those guys and take it a step further by drafting him as my first receiver, which I recently did in an industry mock for The Athletic.

Trey Sermon Is a Top-20 RB

The way this year's NFL Draft shook out, there's almost no way Najee Harris doesn't lead the rookie running back class in touches, yards, and possibly every major category based on volume alone. No other RB in this class enters the season as a lock to start or be the featured back. Hell, Travis Etienne might be used more as a receiver than a runner. So Harris is clearly the top running back among rookies and one of my must-have players as a matter of fact. Then there's Sermon as my second-favorite rookie RB.

Regardless of how you rank this class in terms of talent, it doesn't make as much of a difference as team context. The player in the best situation will generate the most fantasy points and that is Sermon. Sure, there are five other guys battling for touches in the backfield but not all will make the final cut (nice knowing you, JaMycal Hasty). Raheem Mostert will be on the team but he's had a hard time staying healthy. Wayne Gallman is simply a veteran insurance policy. Elijah Mitchell is intriguing but he was a sixth-round pick and running behind Sermon in training camp. Trey Sermon is the player that San Fran traded up to acquire in the third round that happens to fit this offense perfectly.

I'm not loving the fact that he's an increasingly trendy pick, with an ADP of 75 in NFFC leagues that seems to rise with each passing week. At this point, he's being drafted before Raheem Mostert. Still, he's going as RB30 so I project him to exceed that expectation by far.

Miles Sanders Isn't a Top-30 RB

Sanders is still being drafted as a top-20 running back because we all remember the long runs that produced big fantasy weeks. After being inactive in Week 1, four of his next five games resulted in 80 rushing yards or more. But after the Eagles' Week 9 bye, that only happened twice. The end result was a sophomore season of 867 rushing yards in 11 starts, which closely resembles his rookie output of 818 rushing yards in 11 starts.

But what if he plays a full... stop it. It's not about bad injury luck. Sanders will never be a workhorse back because he loses snaps based on poor pass protection and blown routes. Let's do a blind player comparison based on PFF's Player Grades from 2020:

If you guessed that one of these players is Miles Sanders, you're either incredibly lucky or have actually been reading through this section. If you guessed that the other player was Phillip Lindsay, an undrafted free agent in 2018 whose restricted free agent tender was rescinded by the Broncos after last year, you must have looked up these stats.

Both are talented runners who aren't effective as pass-catchers and can't block worth a lick. The Eagles will continue to utilize Boston Scott, recent draft pick Kenneth Gainwell, and others to take third-down snaps. Factor in Jalen Hurts' rushing production that will cut into the running back production on the whole and there are many reasons to steer clear of Sanders.

The Best Fantasy WR Trio Is In Cincinnati

Those of you on Twitter may have seen a debate about which team has the best trio of wide receivers with the list usually looking something like this:

5️⃣ Titans - Julio, AJB, Reynolds
4️⃣ Bengals - Ja’Marr, Tee, Boyd
3️⃣ Rams - Woods,Kupp, DJax
2️⃣ Bucs - Evans,Godwin, AB
1️⃣ Cowboys - Cooper, CD, Gallup

You agree?

(via @brentsobleski) pic.twitter.com/MR9J63lon4

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) August 5, 2021

Amidst the flurry of mind-numbingly dumb comments that follow, the only time the Bengals are mentioned it's something along these lines:

NOT AT ALL
1) Bucs
2) Titans
3) Bills
4) Cowboys
5) Rams
How can Bengals possibly be on this list? What exactly has that group proven? Ridiculous

— Paul Kwiatkowski (@familykwi) August 5, 2021

True, it's hard to claim that Ja'Marr Chase has proven anything before he takes a single NFL snap. Tee Higgins has one year under his belt. Their quarterback, Joe Burrow, played 10 games before tearing his ACL. Right now, there is no justifiable way to claim the Bengals as a top-five WR trio, much less No. 1. By year's end, that could change.

Burrow will be fully healed by Week 1 and is already taking reps in training camp. Don't forget that halfway through last season, he was leading the league in passing attempts and yardage. He finished seventh with 268.8 passing yards per game. This offense will pass early and often; they'll need to because the defense still isn't very good.

The Dallas offense will certainly be better but that's because they also have one of the best and most consistent running backs in the league, whereas Joe Mixon just can't stay healthy. Tampa Bay's receiving corps is probably the most talented but they've had their share of injury problems too and that defense was a big part of their Super Bowl run last year. Through sheer volume, Cincy's trio could lead the way.

Myles Gaskin Leads Miami in Rushing and Receiving

That's right, this year's version of Christian McCaffrey will be a seventh-round pick with seven NFL starts on his resume. Gaskin came out of nowhere to claim the starting job in Miami after it was realized that Jordan Howard and Matt Breida were not the answer. Now, he's advanced to RB2 status in fantasy drafts. But is he worthy?

The rushing part is easy - he's the RB1 in Miami after the team chose not to draft a running back until round seven. Gerrid Doaks may be able to make an impact at some point but he's no threat to Gaskin's job. Neither is Salvon Ahmed who is limited in his skill set or Malcolm Brown, who will pass block and earn short-yardage work but nothing more.

The receiving part is looking more and more likely with each passing day. Preston Williams is on the PUP list to begin training camp, Jaylen Waddle is reportedly still having ankle issues nine months after surgery, and Will Fuller is an injury waiting to happen (after his one-game suspension is served). This team already funneled 95 targets to running backs last year and could do it even more with gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick gone and second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa under center full-time.

Gaskin is an excellent receiving back which is why the team is comfortable with him on all three downs. According to Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints, Gaskin was ninth among running backs in weighted opportunity per game - a metric that includes Snap%, Rush Attempt%, and Target%. That puts him in bell-cow territory. He also graded out as the 11th-best receiving RB according to ProFootballFocus. That makes him a three-down threat.

The Dolphins have a much more talented set of receivers than last year but this offense will spread the ball around enough that one guy may not emerge as an alpha dog. Gaskin is my dark horse for fantasy MVP. Of course my Dolphins' fandom might have something to do with it. At least I didn't go the obvious route by picking Tua!

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