RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2021 Classic. His Horse for John Deere Classic for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Hello PGA DFS family! The Rocket Mortgage Classic provided some Fourth of July fireworks, as a packed leaderboard jostled for position throughout the final round in Detroit. For the second consecutive week on the PGA Tour fans were treated to a sudden-death playoff. Young Aussie, Cameron Davis, outlasted Joaquin Niemann and Troy Merritt to pick up the first PGA Tour victory of his career.
With the Open Championship looming on the horizon, we now head to Illinois for the John Deere Classic!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2021 John Deere Classic Overview
I had some pretty harsh words for the Rocket Mortgage Classic in this section of last week's article. And even though we're now faced with a John Deere Classic field that's somehow even worse than last week's, I'm going to keep the criticism to a minimum.
Make no mistake, this field is by all accounts terrible - and features just five players ranked inside the OWGR's top-50 - but it's for an understandable reason. The John Deere annually draws the thankless task of holding a tournament inside the continental United States the week before the Open Championship. It's not exactly an enviable spot on the schedule, with many of the world's top players electing to either tune-up in the Scottish Open or not play at all. The result is a John Deere field that is largely comprised of a mixture of up-and-coming young players and veterans trying to grind out a living. Exciting stuff.
The tournament tries to make the best of it, offering a last chance for those not already qualified to play their way into the Open with a top-five finish and even chartering a jet for those that will be making the trip across the pond next week. The John Deere is also notoriously generous on the course, as we can expect easy scoring conditions that lead to a classic birdie-fest situation.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: TPC Deere Run
Par 71 - 7,268 Yards, Greens: Bentgrass, Architect: D.A. Weibring & Chris Gray
I hope you guys haven't grown sick of birdies over the last couple of weeks, because we've got plenty more in store this week at TPC Deere Run. This D.A. Weibring design ain't exactly Bethpage Black. The extra-wide fairways are super easy to hit. The greens are super easy to hit. Paul Goydos shot a 59 here in 2010. You get the idea...there will be birdies.
TPC Deere Run features some dramatic elevation changes throughout the layout with the course being designed to present players with risk/reward options that, more often than not, results in more reward than risk. Though birdies are plentiful, the bombers don't necessarily have a distinct advantage in this tournament, as guys like Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker are some of the biggest all-time money earners at the John Deere Classic.
As I have for the last few weeks, I'll once again be looking for players that can go low by focusing on Birdie or Better Percentage and DK Points Scored. I'll also give weight to Strokes Gained: Approach & Tee to Green while giving weight to guys that have success putting on Bentgrass, as these types of events usually devolve into "putting contests".
For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!
Recent John Deere Champions
- 2020: Cancelled due to COVID
- 2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21)
- 2018: Michael Kim (-27)
- 2017: Bryson DeChambeau (-18)
- 2016: Ryan Moore (-22)
The Horse
Brian Harman
Notable Course History: T26 (2019), T10 ('17), T24 ('15), Win ('14)
DraftKings Price: $10,400 FanDuel Price: $11,700
It's probably not groundbreaking DFS analysis to make Brian Harman this week's Horse. With a very weak field, the sub-set of players that have both strong recent form and extensive course history is pretty small. So while mentioning Harman as a top option isn't exactly a hot take, it must be done because, well, HE IS A TOP OPTION.
The little lefty is in the midst of perhaps his best season as a pro in 2021. Harman has been a top-20 machine this year, posting seven such finishes over eight starts since March. He's also logged a pair of top-fives over those appearances and nabbed a T5 in his most recent start at the Travelers. The vet grades out sixth in this week's field in both SG: T2G & DraftKings Points Scored over the last 24 rounds.
In addition to the fire form, Harman has historically been money in the bank at TPC Deere Run, capturing the John Deere title back in 2014, while also logging a top-10 and a pair of top-26 finishes in his four subsequent starts in this event. Yes, his DFS price tags are gross. His betting odds are gross. But so is this field and Harman stands out as one of the few players that inspires actual confidence this week.
The Ponies
Daniel Berger
Notable Course History: T33 ('19), T5 ('17)
DraftKings Price: $11,100 FanDuel Price: $11,900
No surprise to see Daniel Berger atop both the DraftKings and FanDuel salary scales this week. Berger is the top-ranked player in this week's field and has performed excellent throughout 2021. He has been picky with his schedule this summer and last teed it up in the U.S. Open, posting a rock-solid T7 at Torrey Pines.
Berger isn't the type of dominant presence on DFS salary scales that we saw with Bryson DeChambeau last week at the Rocket Mortgage, but he is without question the most elite player teeing it up in Illinois this week. The FSU alum has logged a win a four top-10 finishes in 2021 and also possesses a strong track record at TPC Deere Run, logging a T5 in 2017 and a T33 in 2019. He grades out fourth in this field in Birdies or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds, while also standing sixth in Bogeys Avoided.
Seamus Power
Notable Course History: T61 ('19), T16 ('18), T25 ('17)
DraftKings Price: $9,000 FanDuel Price: $10,800
What a season it has been for Seamus Power. It wasn’t long ago that Power was on the Monday qualifier circuit fighting for starts. Fast forward to now and the Irishman heads to Illinois on the heels of seven consecutive made cuts and a top-10 result in last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic - his second top-10 in his past four starts!
The Irishman’s recent run of form is especially notable this week, as he’s been sharp in three previous John Deere starts. Power has never missed a cut at TPC Deere Run and has scored top-20 results in two of three Deere starts since 2017.
What’s also noteworthy is exactly how he’s been playing so well...great iron play and solid putting...two traits that translate to success in the Deere. Power grades out sixth in this field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and has gained strokes with his irons in each of his last five starts, including an impressive mark of +4.2 on Approach last week in Detroit.
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Zach Johnson
Notable Course History: T37 ('19), T16 ('18), T5 ('17), T3 ('15), Win ('12)
DraftKings Price: $8,500 FanDuel Price: $10,400
Death. Taxes. Zach Johnson at the John Deere Classic. Just a few of the certainties in life. Johnson might not be quite as infallible as the Grim Reaper - or the IRS - but the Iowa native possesses a sparkling track record in the event he's often referred to as "his fifth major".
After receiving sponsor's exemptions into the Deere as a young player trying to find his way on to the PGA Tour, Johnson now sits on the tournament's Board of Directors. It's a true midwest success story for the two-time major champion. He captured the John Deere crown in 2012 and has posted a hard-to-fathom SIX top-five finishes over his 18 career starts in the event. Johnson so happens to head into this year's edition fresh off his best ball-striking performance of 2021 at the Travlers, an event in which he gained 6.5 strokes T2G and 4.5 on Approach.
Steve Stricker
Notable Course History: Win ('11,'10,'09)
DraftKings Price: $7,700 FanDuel Price: $9,000
I don’t usually dip into the Champions Tour for members of my player pool, but I’m going to make an exception for Steve Stricker this week. Strick is a John Deere Classic legend, having won this tournament three-straight years between 2009-2011.
While the U.S. Ryder Cup captain’s track record at TPC Deere Run is unbelievably impressive, I’m not willing to roster guys on course history alone. What’s so surprising about Stricker - and what I believe justifies his inclusion in this week’s HFTC - is the fact that he’s actually played really good golf this year. He’s spent the majority of his time on the Champions Tour and has destroyed that circuit to the tune of nine top-10s in eleven 2021 starts, as well as a victory at the Senior PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago on a fiery Firestone layout. Perhaps more importantly, he’s still been competitive on the regular Tour and has posted three top-20 finishes in limited starts this year.
Length is not at all a prerequisite to playing well on this TPC Deere Run track. Success will be determined by good iron play and a hot putter, two areas in which Stricker can still compete with the caliber of players in this week’s field.
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