The Deepest Dive: WR Sleepers in 16+ Team Leagues

After looking at quarterbacks previously, we continue our look at deep-league draft targets with the wide receiver position.

I define a deep league as one in which at least 16 teams take part. That means each draft round would consist of 16 picks and there would be 240 (15 rounds multiplied by 16 teams) players drafted overall. So for this exercise, I will be looking at players with ADPs over 240 using a dataset comprised of data from drafts based on leagues with such structure. The data comes from PPR-format leagues, and whenever I mention stats, projections, and fantasy points, those would all be spoken of on the basis of that format.

Here is a look at three wide receivers that can be considered sleepers in super deep, 16+ team leagues. Keep an eye on them and track their presence on the draft board as they can become interesting pieces down the road during the development of the 2021 season!

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Sterling Shepard, New York Giants

ADP: 243

Since he joined the Giants as a rookie all the way back in 2016, Shepard's ADP has only dropped below 143rd-overall once (last season) in those five summers. That came down to injury concerns, as Shepard missed six games in 2019 and had actually alternated healthy with banged-up seasons since his debut, playing 16, then 11, then 16, then 10, and ultimately 12 games last season in his career.

Last year was Shepard's best in terms of efficiency with a 9.94 YPR mark to go with a career-high 73.3% Catch Rate while putting up a 90/66/656/3 receiving yard line to go with 49 yards and a single touchdown on the ground to put the cherry on top of a WR43 season (162.5 PPR points). Had he played the full 16-game schedule at that pace (13.5 FPPG), he would have seen his final rank go all the way up to WR23 and a WR2 finish, more than good for those in either shallow or deeper formats.

The Giants have loaded their offense this offseason, adding WR Kenny Golladay, John Ross, and rookie Kadarius Toney. Add RB Saquon Barkley coming back healthy, and it's obvious that Shepard will lose opportunities no matter what. Even then, it's just stupid to find Shepard with a 240+ ADP at the time of this writing.

Shepard projects to 190+ PPR points (via PFF) in 2021, which is the most by far by a WR with such ADP (and lower). In fact, for players projected to finish in the 180-200 FP clip over the season, the average ADP comes out at a rather high 108 compared to Shepard's 240+. This is one of the biggest bargains you can find late in fantasy drafts, so you know what to do--yes, don't hesitate on using an earlier pick on Shepard if you don't want to get snipped, which is very probable!

Randall Cobb, Houston Texans

ADP: 323

Cobb is clearly removed from his Green Bay-based prime these days. That's nothing new, of course, but Cobb still comes with a reasonable upside and is going to play for a depleted Texans team for the second year in 2021. Houston might not have QB Deshaun Watson manning the pocket next year, but even then, these receiving corps are so barren of talent that Cobb could very well be the WR1--WR2 at most--among eligible wideouts.

Houston focused on loading the backfield for some reason, but only added Chris Conley and rookie Nico Williams to the WR depth chart. Other than in 2018, when he could only play nine games, Cobb has been able to finish with 100+ PPR points in every season since his rookie one, and he's averaged at least 9.6+ FPPG since 2011. Cobb averaged 10.3 FPPG playing for Dallas in 2019 and 10.0 last season in just 10 games played.

Cobb's 79.2% Catch Rate was absolutely insane, although he had topped the 70% mark four other years throughout his career. Cobb's a slot receiver first and foremost, so he's locked into the lineup on a snap basis while he gets targeted fairly often and scored touchdowns with the 26th-highest efficiency given his volume of targets.

PFF projects Cobb to finish the year with a sound 161+ FP, only topped by Brandin Cooks' 210+ in Houston's offense. The projected receiving line reads close to 80/60/780/4 and among wideouts, he is expected to finish WR57. Cobb has the highest projected ROI among all wide receivers as he's getting drafted with a ridiculous 323rd-overall ADP, but is expected to outproduce that projection with an overall 125th finish.

Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers

ADP: 281

I get your concerns. Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to play; Aaron Rodgers will get traded; Aaron Rodgers has bought a condo in the Rocky Mountains area... yada yada. That might or might not happen, and I don't even know if we will know at any point during the next few weeks or if we'll just wake up one day and find out that Rodgers has been moved/retired/whatever. Until then, and even if that happens, Lazard looks like one of the best bargains available late in fantasy drafts.

Lazard is one of only 57 WRs projected to reach 70 targets, 50 receptions, and 750 receiving yards in 2021. He's also the only wideout (along with Cobb and Shepard; read above) in that group with an ADP below the 220th spot. Other than clear go-to WR1 Davante Adams, no one in Green Bay is expected to eat as much as Lazard in the Packers' offense (not counting RB Aaron Jones, obviously), and the presence of Adams opposite Lazard only boosts the latter's upside as he won't have to deal with the best defender of his opponents.

The fact that Adams has been absolutely fantastic in Green Bay has distorted Lazard's perception to the eyes of fantasy GMs. The truth is that he's been getting better each passing year, going from 1.7 to 6.4 and finally 9.8 FPPG in his career while scoring 102.8 and 97.8 PPR points the last two seasons (he only played 10 games in 2020, mind you).

Lazard has magnets for hands, logging an average 69.5% Catch Rate in the past two seasons and ranking 18th of 83 WRs with at least 98 targets in the past two years combined. Lazard put up absolutely crazy numbers last season and his 4.2 YAC/Target would have led all wideouts in 2020, same as his RZ Catch Rate and second-best Contested Catch Rate.

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