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Welcome back everyone, to another LOL breakdown article featuring four matchups tomorrow from the LPL and LCK. This slate is more straightforward than the last, but should be a fun one. Last night we backed JDG, EDG, NS, and GEN G, going four for four in series winners! Hoped you all cashed as well, but regardless, it’s onto the next one. On a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
There were some roster changes that will be addressed when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who ended the last split and/or played in the playoffs. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, as ill try to post/retweet those starting lineups as early as available.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Sunday, June 13th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM: KT (+700) vs. DWG (-1400)
This is the first match of the day, so starters should be announced. We've seen both of these teams play once this split, with DW besting T1 2-1 and coming back from a gold deficit in two games, and KT getting reverse swept by NS. KT will probably be the lowest owned stack on the whole slate, and for good reason. I don't see a way they pull this off, even though they looked improved from last split in their opening series. DWG Kia have been somewhat vulnerable since the start of MSI, but against Worlds tier teams.
KT fumbled a gold lead in game three vs. NS and if you give DWG an inch, they will take a mile. In the slight off chance that KT pull it off, Doran and Noah are the two pieces you want as a great secondary stack. Even if KT somehow take a game or somehow the series, I don't see them breaking the slate scoring wise. DWG won't lose too bloodily.
DWG will 2-0 sweep cleanly in not so bloody fashion, making them my favorite TEAM slot play of the slate. KT aren't a particularly skirmishing/proactive team, and aren't very bloody in losses. DWG come in focused and ready to end KT swiftly, after a tough victory vs T1.
Top DWG plays:
- DWG - TEAM - will grind down KT in lane and their objectives, Canyon will have priority over Blank, leading to great objective control
- FADE DWG players, as they will win in a low-scoring clean fashion
7:00 AM: DRX(-155) vs. AF (+120)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Will Leo start again for AF? I would assume so, while DRX should also roll out the same lineup. DRX is coming off a 2-1 loss to GEN G, only really looking competitive in game 1.
I'm looking for SOLKA to be well involved in this series. He should be able to find an advantage in this mid lane matchup, with the help of Pyosik, vs a very vulnerable and uninspiring Fly. I like BAO and Becca to match the AF bot lane in terms of farming and roaming. Leo and Lehends defaulted to Senna and Tahm Kench in two games, switching to a Varus in game three. AF is a team that will want to find their early advantage on the top side of the map, and through rift herald(2nd in the LCK in HLD% last split.)
DRX and AF had polar opposites in terms of competition to open this split up against. I'm going take to a shot on DRX to sweep AF 2-0, as I still not even close to a believer of AF. DRX showed promise last split, finishing the split in playoffs, and only had a rough 2nd half of the split because their schedule was fierce. I like them as a contrarian primary stack, with AF having the potential to get bloody in losses, and can help you fit in the big favorites too.
Top DRX plays: ALL ( in order: PYOSIK, SOLKA, BAO, BECCA, KINGEN)
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: LGD (-155) vs. UP (+120)
This matchup seems like it's going to be a bloody one, if these teams play with any sort of resemblance in their opening series. Both teams took a game (but lost the series) against heavy favorites in their opening matches, and like to fight/skirmish. I'll mention again that it is early in the split, and teams are trying to find their footing in this snowball/early game focused meta. LGD could've won their series vs. RA, if it weren't for some questionable plays that caused them to throw game two and three. UP showed their bot lane's strength in their sole victory over FPX, but also had a competitive game one loss, displaying good skirmishing vs. FPX.
LGD were a bit of a question mark going into their first series vs. RA, but some lessons were confirmed. Xiye is still very good on Sylas, and integrated well with his new aggressive jungler Shad0w. LGD truly looked good in the early game vs RA, but crumbled in the mid/late decision-making department. On the other hand, UP also came in with new pieces to their roster, and also saw how they meshed together. UP showed they could contest with great competition, but both teams have a honeymoon period going, as that may also play a part.
This matchup is gonna be a close one, but I really like UP at plus money here, as they had the harder competition vs FPX and looked competitive for just as long as LGD hanging with the lesser talented RA. Give me UP 2-1 in a bloody affair, making them a great secondary stack to grab some value.
Top UP Plays:
- Smlz- ADC - good showing vs. FPX, and has a skilled Kog'maw, who has climbed back into the meta.
- H4cker - JGL - will be active along with ShiauC in terms of KP%
- ShiauC - SUP - big playmaker/roamer, engages will come through him, will be involved
- Zs- TOP - will have another aggressive lane matchup vs Garvey, but a whole step down from Nuguri, who he performed admirably against.
7:00 AM: WE (-900) vs. TT(+500)
Last series of the day featuring another big favorite, and again not too much interest in the dogs. WE coming off a 2-1 victory over Suning, which could've easily been a 2-0 but they (mostly MOLE) threw game 2 pretty hard. TT didn't get completely obliterated by JDG , but JDG just looked like they were playing with their food rather than TT looking competitive(especially after how they looked vs TOP this morning.)
The competition certainly doesn't drop off a whole lot in their next match. WE are surely a playoff team, even with Mole making some VERY questionable engages on Sett, while TT are simply one of the better low tier teams in the extremely competitive LPL. Not much to go over here, as WE are a teamfighting team that also like to fight and skirmish early, and I don't see any lanes that TT can play through that will have significant advantages. I love WE to sweep here, handily, with TT even putting up an early fight, making this a bloody primary stack for tomorrow. If TT do pull it off, SamD is the guy that will pave the way for TT, along with Xiaopeng being heavily involved.
Top WE plays ALL: (in order: Beishang, Elk, Missing, Breathe, Mole)
Summary
- TLDR: DWG 2-0, DRX 2-0, UP 2-1, WE 2-0. I like DRX to upset tomorrow in LCK, fade DWG in clean sweep fashion, while WE will be on the opposite end of the scoring in a sweep spectrum, and DRX in the middle, making my favorite stacks WE and DRX.
That's it, for now, Summoners, good luck tomorrow!
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