RADIO
The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays that are identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend here should be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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DFS NASCAR Research Station Spotlights
Vegas Odds
-The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-Chase Elliott has the best odds and implied odds (31 percent) to win the Toyota/Save Mart 350 by a significant margin. Elliott is a road course ace of the highest magnitude, as six of his 12 career Cup wins have come on road courses. His most amazing trend is reflected in the Recent Road Courses finishes category: Elliott has won five of his past six starts on road courses. It is actually an eyebrow raiser that Elliott has never won at Sonoma Raceway. Don’t bet against him ending up in Victory Lane for the first time this week at SR. He must anchor several of your lineups, differentiate around him to be unique in tournaments.
-The Research Station gives Christopher Bell a 48 percent chance of finishing in the Top 10, which are easily the best implied odds of any driver below $8500, and the same as Brad Keselowski. Bell starts 20th and is projected to finish 11th, and keep in mind that the projections allow for some variance, so Bell could also finish ahead of 11th by a spot or two, maybe more. Bell won at the Daytona Road Course earlier this season and the Average Position category shows us that he has an Average Running Position of 10.7 in his recent road course starts.
Projections
-Martin Truex Jr. is projected to score the most Fantasy Points this week (60.65). Elliott may be the prime pick to win and lead the most laps, but Truex starts 19th and is the best play for the combination of potential Place Differential production and a strong finish, He is projected to finish fifth, and could certainly place higher than that given the built-in variance of the projections. Truex has won the last two races at Sonoma and the Road Course Results category shows us that he has finished in the Top 5 in 50 percent of his starts on the track type. Only Elliott has a higher percentage (58) of Top 5 finishes on road courses.
-Kurt Busch is projected to score the third-most Fantasy Points this week (51.65) and is the best value (5.65) on the board. Busch is the best PD play in the field this week, as he starts 30th and is projected to finish 11th. He has finished in the Top 12 in five of his past six Sonoma starts and has placed fourth in two of his past three road course starts. Busch has finished in the Top 10 in 67 percent of his road course starts, which is tied for second among all active drivers.
Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
We can often identify good value plays from this category. Matt DiBenedetto has the most Fantasy Points Gained vs, Similar Drivers in recent races at Sonoma (23.4) and overall (11.0) in the sub-$8500 range on DraftKings. DiBenedetto starts 17th and is projected to finish 14th, so he is at least worthy of rostering for a respectable showing. DiBenedetto finished fourth in his most recent Sonoma start, but there are other reasons to consider DiBenedetto as an option in addition to what this important category indicates. DiBenedetto is in 17th place in the Cup standings heading into Sonoma, which is the first spot outside of the final playoff slot. He is also from Grass Valley, California, so Sonoma can be considered a ‘home” track for him.
Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers
Driver Rating is the single most important Loop Data statistic, so we revisit this category regularly. This metric looks at the DR a driver achieved in a race and compares it to all other drivers historically with a similar season-long DR and with very similar starting positions. This week, the category is telling us to avoid Joey Logano. He has one of the worst numbers in the field in this category (-17.9) among the higher-priced drivers in recent Sonoma events. Logano starts 13th and is projected to finish eighth, which shows a lack of necessary upside for a price of $10,100 on DraftKings. Logano has not finished in the Top 10 in five of his past seven Sonoma starts. His recent road course finishes (three consecutive Top 3 showings) may lure you into considering Logano, but he has never won on a road course and has finished in the Top 5 in just 25 percent of his starts on the track type.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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