RADIO
Last Saturday saw us bag two of three for a nice profitable two days. Saturday alone netted us +1.59 units. A quick heads-up that there won't be any Saturday article as I'm performing best man duties at a wedding all day. If you do want any info or tips on bets, reach out to the RotoBaller team on Twitter (below) and I'm sure they'll be more than willing to guide you towards the money.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Brua Tagovailoaić (@LucidMediaDFS) will be giving out the free picks during the week throughout the season, with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 0-2 (-1.5 U)
- O/U Record: 1-5 (-4.13 U)
- Runline Record: 1-3 (-0.92 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 2-4 (-0.49 U)
- Prop Record: 11-4 (+6.87 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 13-16 (-0.17 U)
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: DET +150, CWS -160
DET: Spencer Turnbull | CWS: Dallas Keuchel
The Tigers dropped game one of this four-game series by a 4-1 scoreline, with all four runs scored by the White Sox being via solo home runs. That's likely not something they'll be able to repeat against Turnbull who has allowed just one home run all season and hasn't given up a homer in his last six starts. Turnbull's 0.20 HR/9 is third-lowest among all pitchers with at least 40.0 IP. Turnbull enters this game with a 2.93 ERA and his numbers are backed up by his 3.09 xERA, a big part of which is due to cutting his BB% down to 6.4% this year.
Keuchel hasn't been as good as Turnbull and is on track to have his worst season statistically since 2013. Although his ERA is a respectable 4.53, his xERA is 6.15 which is the second-highest among all qualified pitchers. His last four outings have come against the Twins (twice), Yankees and Orioles, none of whom have been good offensively this year, yet those four starts combined for a 5.82 ERA. Keuchel has been markedly worse at home than on the road too with a 5.53 ERA and .278/.333/.491 line at home and a 3.66 ERA and .254/.316/.385 line on the road.
Since May 01st, the Tigers have been good offensively against LHP. They've put up a collective .264/.345/.399 line with a .328 wOBA and 110 wRC+ (both 11th). The White Sox have been solid against RHP since May 01st but even after last night's four-homer game, they still rank 17th in SLG (.387), 20th in ISO (.147) and 11th in wOBA (.321).
I don't trust the Tigers bullpen to close out a tight game late on as their 5.16 ERA is third-worst in MLB while the White Sox bullpen has a 3.49 ERA which is eighth-best in baseball.
Pick: 1st 5 innings - Runline DET +0.5 (-110) 1 Unit
Pick: 1st 5 innings - Moneyline DET (+131) 0.5 Units
Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CIN +125, STL -130
CIN: Luis Castillo | STL: Kwang Hyun Kim
It's been widely known how bad Castillo has been this season. His 7.22 ERA is worse than any other pitcher with at least 50.0 IP this year. He's only thrown 52.1 IP in 11 outings and to give some context, Jacob deGrom has made eight starts and totaled 51.0 IP, which included two starts lasting five innings before and after an IL stint.
Castillo has made two starts against the Cardinals this year, totaling just 8.2 IP and combining for a 12.96 ERA. He's struck out just three of the 42 batters he faced in those games and gave up three homers. Kim is having a solid year with a 3.65 ERA from his eight starts. He's totaled just 37.0 IP and has yet to complete six innings this year and has a 5.14 ERA from his last three starts.
The Reds managed to take game one of the series 4-2 on Thursday, leaving both teams with an even 5-5 record over their last ten games each. Neither team has been particularly good offensively since May 01st with the Reds scoring 127 runs in that time (20th) and the Cardinals 124 (21st). Since the end of April, the Reds have struggled against LHP with a .199 AVG (29th), .289 wOBA (26th) and 80 wRC+ (27th).
The Reds bullpen ERA of 5.60 this year is the worst in MLB and Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims both went 2.0 IP yesterday so might not be available today. If Castillo fails to record more than 15 outs for the sixth straight start, that weak bullpen will be stretched again.
Pick: Runline - St Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+145) 0.5 Units
Pick: Over 8 total runs (-110) 1 Unit
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