Projecting RB Potential: Talent, Touches, Team Context

Running backs are the hardest position to project for fantasy football yet the most critical. A talented runner who has breakout potential may be hampered by a poor offensive system or limited touches. Conversely, a player who gets a high number of touches may not have the ability to take full advantage of the situation. How do we determine which RBs truly have the highest ceiling based on what we do know?

I set out to measure each running back's fantasy potential with a metric I'll refer to as T3 (Talent, Touches, Team context). This metric takes into account a player's overall talent which may be hard to objectively measure but we can use PFF grades to achieve positional rankings. Touches will include 2021 projections for rushes and receptions and are taken from Nick Mariano's 2021 projections. Team context is simply a snapshot of how good or bad a team is projected to be. Although I do have some strong opinions on this matter, let's keep it objective and use Vegas odds for each team's chances to win Super Bowl LIII. When it comes to running backs, it isn't offense alone that matters because a team with a bad defense that is frequently losing will run the ball less and provide fewer scoring opportunities.

My methodology is to assign each player a score of 1-10 based on how they rank in each category. These three categories will be averaged out to come up with a final T3 score. Since the statistics with the strongest correlation to RB fantasy production are snaps and touches, I weighted the total at 1.5 times. Team context matters but less so than the other two and seemed to drag down the mean score too much, so it was weighted at .5 times before final calculation. The results were mostly logical but there are some key names that stand out as a result. Let's get to the numbers.

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Talent Supercedes

We don't need to become film study experts to judge who are the most talented running backs. The pros at PFF do this for a living and assign every player in the NFL a grade based on how they perform. For this exercise, we will use 2020 Overall Grades that include rushing, receiving, and blocking ability.

There was no way to use this data for rookies, naturally, so I assigned a ranking based on their performance in college with adjustment for draft capital and combine measurements. Admittedly, some subjectivity was at play but this won't make or break the system. For players who missed the majority of the season or opted out such as Saquon Barkley or Damien Williams, I used 2019 grades.

Damien Harris a perfect 10??? According to PFF, Harris was behind only Derrick Henry in overall effectiveness. The knock on him is that he doesn't catch passes but it's not from a lack of ability. Harris graded out at a respectable 67.6 in receiving which was better than Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kareem Hunt, and Aaron Jones among others. The fact that James White still resides in Foxboro is the main reason Harris has a lower ceiling in PPR leagues but he could assume more responsibility in that area this season. His impressive pass-blocking skills have endeared him to Bill Belichick and could keep him on the field for some third downs.

Gus Edwards isn't a pass-catcher and never will be. His strength is toting the rock and running full steam ahead. That's something Gus the Bus will do a lot more of this year with J.K. Dobbins out for the season. Be warned that this high grade is mostly due to his rushing prowess but he won't see a big bump in receiving work.

Nyheim Hines is the anti-bus. He's an efficient runner who averaged 4.3 yards per carry last season but he will cede early-down work to Jonathan Taylor and mix in mainly on passing downs. If anything, his superior work as a receiver could cast a little doubt on Taylor's ceiling.

We haven't even broached the topic of team context but already see that Houston RBs Mark Ingram and David Johnson are among the lowest-graded players. It's almost like they're not trying to win this year...

For someone who graded out as the sixth-worst running back last year, Kenyan Drake sure got a nice chunk of change from the Raiders. He will be paid $11 million for two years of service, so even if he's not worth it, at least he'll get a fair amount of usage. But that's for the section below.

Touches

This category is fairly straightforward. The more often a running back touches the ball, be it on the ground or through the air, the greater likelihood of fantasy production. There are a variety of factors that will alter preseason projections, mainly injuries, but assuming the most reasonable set of outcomes leads us to the following ranking.

Check our very own Nick Mariano's full projections for 2021 fantasy football right here.

Zeke leading the way in touches isn't something many expect to happen. Tony Pollard got more involved through the second half of the season, leading Elliott to finish with 296 touches and a career-low 16.3 rush attempts per game. This might be less a result of Pollard carving out a role in the offense and more about the team trying not to wear their main RB down in a losing season when nothing was working on offense. In 2019, Elliott had 355 touches so don't be surprised if he returns to that level.

Saquon Barkley's Week 1 status is still up in the air and many are nervous about his knee heading into 2021. Will he really carry the ball close to 300 times? Unless there is an unforeseen setback or soft tissue injury that crops up during the season, there's no reason to think otherwise. Let's face it, Barkley doesn't need huge volume to be one of the best fantasy RBs anyway.

Projections are always conservative in nature and don't take breakouts into account. For example, I see a path for Kenneth Gainwell to immediately assume a larger role in the Philly offense and surpass 120 touches this season but that's not a given. If that happens, then it logically follows that Miles Sanders will see fewer touches. That's an adjustment I've made in my own rankings but on paper Sanders still registers as a high-end RB2.

Ty'Son Williams is the backup RB on the most run-heavy offense in the NFL so if he performs well, he will easily outpace his projection of 80 total touches. On the other hand, if Rashaad Penny can't stay healthy or Latavius Murray runs as sluggishly as he did in the preseason, both will be passed by on the depth chart and fail to reach the 100-touch mark.

Nobody on this lists registers as a 1 ranking-wise because those players did not make the cut to be projected in the first place. There's always the off chance a late-round draft pick or undrafted free agent makes a splash but again, that's not something that can be accounted for at this point.

Context Matters

No surprises here. Last year's Super Bowl participants are favored to return while the Texans and Lions are in early contention for the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft. Context matters more so for running backs than other positions because game script defines how often a team can utilize a running back. Still, this stat was weighed least of the three in the end. Interestingly, the teams at the top seem to be the ones that rely the least on their running backs.

We know to avoid the Texans by this point but there is legitimate concern that should surround D'Andre Swift at his ADP.

It really doesn't matter what this says about Christian McCaffrey - he's still the clear 1.1 in any fantasy draft. If the Panthers struggle to win this year, it will mainly be due to their defense and/or Sam Darnold. As a running back who actually produces more as a receiver than a runner, game script is never out of favor for him.

Final Results

Taking each measure into account, here are the final results (drum roll):

Ultimately, there are no big shocks here as the top of the leaderboard mostly resembles average draft position. The notable exceptions are Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley who are penalized for being on inferior clubs.

Relative to draft stock, Chris Carson (8.3), David Montgomery (8.1), and Damien Harris (7.8) are the best values that could deliver workhorse-type production without a first or second-round price tag.

D'Andre Swift, Michael Carter, Kenyan Drake, and the Buffalo running back duo of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are players that might be overvalued.

Team context ratings will change as soon as the first set of games is played and upsets go down. Last year's playoff teams might find themselves on the outside looking in and sleepers will emerge. Talent is a good starting point for scouting future fantasy stars but the opportunity needs to be there as well. Once the obvious studs are off the board, it's advisable to invest in running backs who are high in talent and just need a lucky break to find a path to touches (Gus Edwards, Sony Michel, Trey Sermon, A.J. Dillon). After that, target RBs who are in line to get consistent touches even if they aren't high-end talents (Chase Edmonds, Jamaal Williams, Ronald Jones).

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