RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has entered the second round of the playoffs! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, June 2nd, 2021 at 7:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 6/2
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- Montreal Canadiens vs. Winnipeg Jets
- Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche
One of the key aspects of tonight is how does Vegas fare with Marc-Andre Fleury in net. Can he slow down the Colorado Avalanche in any way for Game 2? The expectation is if anyone can, it is Fleury.
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With just a two-game main slate, picking the right goalie should be a little bit easier. The key is should. Connor Hellebuyck was every bit as good as anyone else in the last round against Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers. Only rust could be a concern against Montreal but how tired is Montreal after coming back to defeat the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven draining games.
Because of Fleury, Philipp Grubauer may not quite be that hammer goalie that he was in Game 1. He may still deliver that quality start but there is some more risk. Fleury can easily produce a 30-35 save performance tonight. The same may not be said for any other goaltender. That Montreal-Winnipeg game may be a lower shot total. That is the concern.
There is a lot of unknown with this slate because of that opening game matchup in Winnipeg. Also, Vegas has to inevitably bounce back a little after what happened in Game 1. The question becomes how much. That is always the variable in these playoffs. Is the zig-zag theory worth it? So far, even that has been a mixed bag at best. At worst, momentum has carried with some teams.
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The idea of game stacking takes less weight here but who does one risk stacking. Obviously, Colorado's top line has to be owned in some form but how much is too much? Can one slide down to their middle-six? One almost has to on Wednesday night. Joonas Donskoi always comes into play along with Devon Toews as a slightly cheaper defensive option.
Does any game have the potential to feature a goalie duel? It would actually appear both games might at least from a quality start standpoint. All four goaltenders will have to be on top of their game. Any deviations completely throw off such a small slate. That is the playoffs in a nutshell. It takes little to ruin or help a night.
Finally, this main slate is more normal for a second round. The first game tonight makes looking at Winnipeg's power play a little more paramount than usual perhaps. Risk-reward plus rust makes for some strange bedfellows.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple once more but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll a bit earlier in the day barring game-time decisions, etc. Be advised analysis becomes a little more concise come the playoffs as we concentrate on social media more as well.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Nathan MacKinnon, COL ($9,000 DK / $8,900 FD) - This time of year is where analysis becomes simpler. MacKinnon is ridiculous. He is the best player in Playoff DFS. With the DraftKings shot bonus almost always in play, that alone is helpful. He has multiple points in four of his five playoff games. Now, is there a chance tonight that Vegas could slow him down. Yes. With Fleury in net, there is a little bit of a concern here. Vegas has also recovered some from the fatigue of the Minnesota series. One still has to roster MacKinnon in most lineups but one can mix other plays in elsewhere. MacKinnon might only get a point or two tonight but with five or more shots on goal.
- Mark Scheifele, WPG ($6,500 DK / $7,600 FD) - Yes, Scheifele carries a nice price on DraftKings. Again, with the playoffs, there will be a less detailed analysis. Simply, the center has to shoot the puck more. It is obvious. Scheifele has one of the more underrated shots in the league. Also, he can skate with a little bit of speed (not MacKinnon level). There may be a few greater opportunities on Wednesday night given the fact that Montreal will be a bit fatigued. Yes, Winnipeg could be rusty but they will be rested.
This is a Wednesday night slate where there can be some solid variety. Again, look around at middle-six players as they help one profit the most. Expect the unexpected on a night where Nick Suzuki is $5,500 on DraftKings. Even one of the lower Colorado centers (less than $3,000 on DraftKings) is at least worth a look. It is all about searching for value and we will keep an eye on any possible line changes as the afternoon and evening unfold.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Kyle Connor, WPG ($6,400 DK / $6,600 FD) - It is kind of nice to get a sniper that shoots like a sniper. Connor has six goals and four assists in his last ten games. More importantly, he has averaged more than three scoring chances a game and having Nik Ehlers in the lineup only helps. Montreal will not be able to focus on just one line either and Winnipeg can throw some accelerations which may mess up the Habs' rhythm early in this series. Connor has ten power-play goals on the season but none in the past ten games. He seems due there.
- Alex Tuch, VGK ($4,300 DK/ $4,700 FD) - With so many options out there, the idea is to look a little down the page. Tuch had four shots on goal and three scoring chances against Colorado in Game 1. His physical play combined with his speed created a few matchup problems for the Avalanche. That is rare. As this series slugs along, expect Tuch to have some more opportunities as far as ice time. His price point may creep up so the time may be now to snag him. Again, the top options are the top options.
Something else we should add is to stay away from players who are battling nagging injuries. There is the inevitable game-time decision (on larger slates, it may be okay to risk but not here). So many players are just not 100% and it is our job to try and spot them which is why social media is so vital. Brendan Gallagher and Tyler Toffoli are intriguing, contrarian options from Montreal. They generate shots and have a quick enough release to challenge Connor Hellebuyck.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Cale Makar, COL ($5,800 DK / $6,000 FD) - So, the point here is that with defensemen at the high-end around $6,000, this allows a few more options. One can play a Makar with ease tonight against Vegas. These are things that cannot be done during the regular season. Makar averages about three shots a game and one blocked shot. His floor is never that great but it is good enough. That is especially true with 12 points (four goals) in the last ten games.
- Josh Morrissey, WPG ($4,900 DK / $3,900 FD) - The defenseman is hot right now in DFS with four points in his last two games and had seven blocks in his last game versus Edmonton. Morrissey should have a bit more offensive freedom in this series as well. Montreal will give up chances and lots of them on the penalty kill. The defenseman should be able to get shots on net as Montreal ranked fifth-worst in the league in unblocked shot attempts from the blueline. His FanDuel price is even more attractive.
Rostering players against the grain a bit may pay off tonight. Hint: GO FOR IT! It is the playoffs. Game flow has a way of getting very strange at times. The key tonight will be to attempt to roster some plays around or below $4,000. See if Ryan Graves will play. He is quite cheap on DraftKings. Think a poor man's Alec Martinez basically. Even Nic Hague is a minimum value play from Vegas with low risk.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Many apologies will be needed for what we have to say. First, see below.
Goalies to consider: Connor Hellebuyck (WPG), Marc-Andre Fleury (VGK)
Note: If you do roster a goalie that seems higher-risk to you, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Amazingly, the choice with Fleury is the anticipation that he sees a bunch of shots or enough to warrant rostering even if he does not win on Wednesday. Hellebuyck is a goalie here because yes one is flat out going for the win!
The biggest risk tonight is again going for the saves. Again, decisions abound on which road to take. Maybe Vegas or Montreal surprise with a higher shot volume. Do both games see a bump down tonight? There are more unknowns tonight than on Monday night. This is because one series has one rested and one not. The other is a Game 2 anticipating a bounce-back but how much?
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- COL 1
- MacKinnon/ Rantanen / Makar or Toews (have to save some money).
- WPG PP1
- Scheifele / Connor / Wheeler / Morrissey from D
- VGK 1
- Stone / Pacioretty / Stephenson / Pietrangelo or even Hague on D
Other Stacks to consider: COL 3, VGK 3, WPG 2, MTL 3, WPG 3
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
