Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Changeup Profiles for Week 11

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. Last week I started taking a look into pitchers' relative success of certain pitches using Statcast's pitch movement tab. I started with curveballs and am now moving onto changeups.

Statcast's pitch movement data breaks out each pitch by vertical and horizontal movement in inches compared to average movement. For vertical movement, positive numbers refer to relative rise while negative numbers refer to relative drop. For horizontal movement, positive numbers refer to relative break while negative numbers refer to relative lack of break.

Rather than choose studs and duds for these specific articles, I will pick one pitcher from each of the four quadrants and analyze how their particular movement has helped or hurt them this season. Pitchers were only considered if they have thrown the pitch at least 100 times. Pitchers' secondary pitches are key to gaining strikeouts, so taking a look at them can shed light onto their overall fantasy performance. As I have mentioned in previous articles, I will not focus on obvious fantasy studs, but will choose to analyze more under-the-radar/less-obvious players or studs who have been struggling to give readers the most useful insight. Let's find out whose changeups have the most interesting movement!

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Changeup: Strong Drop and Break

All stats current as of Sunday, June 6.

Pablo Lopez, Miami Marlins

Vertical Drop: 3.2 inches (11%) greater than average
Horizontal Break: 2.5 inches (16%) greater than average

Our first pitcher comes from a batch of young Marlins pitchers who have found success in the big leagues. Pablo Lopez is having his second consecutive solid season, going 1-3 with a 2.82 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate. His pitch arsenal has actually been led by his changeup this season at 33.9% usage, and it is a good one. Let's take a closer look at how Lopez's changeup has helped him find success so far.

Lopez is mainly a changeup-fastball pitcher, but can maintain an above-average strikeout rate due to his deceptive mix of pitches. He relies primarily on his changeup, but he also has a four-seam fastball (32.5% usage), a sinker (12.6% usage), and a cutter (12% usage). Further adding to the deception is that Lopez's perceived changeup spin direction is similar to some of his fastballs and his changeup averages 88 MPH. As such, it does not appear to be all that different to a hitter from a fastball, but the sheer amount of movement and slight velocity difference has made Lopez's changeup his best swing-and-miss pitch at 15.3%.

Lopez has a lot going for him to indicate that he can be a solid fantasy contributor. He mixes his pitches up and gets strikeouts, thanks to his changeup. Lopez has located his pitches out of the middle of the plate, kept the ball out of the air for the most part, and he has avoided hard contact. His success has been spearheaded by his changeup, and I see no reason for that not to continue.

Changeup: Strong Drop

All stats current as of Sunday, June 6.

Josh Fleming, Tampa Bay Rays

Vertical Drop: 5 inches (14%) greater than average
Horizontal Break: -1.1 inches (-7%) less than average

Our second pitcher has mostly flown under the fantasy radar this season, but has been producing some solid results. Josh Fleming isn't the most exciting fantasy pitcher. He pitches to contact, doesn't have an overpowering pitch arsenal, and has a 14.3% strikeout rate. However, he seems to be doing a lot right for the Rays, whether serving as a traditional starter or as a long reliever. How has his dipping changeup contributed to his 5-4 record and 3.44 ERA?

The important thing to note about Fleming's changeup is that he has been able to find success with it without having to throw it in the zone. Fleming's overall chase rate is in the 98th percentile of baseball. Despite the low overall strikeout rate, he has a respectable 9.3% swinging-strike rate with his changeup while throwing it just below and just outside of the strike zone. His overall pitch location has helped him yield a successful batted-ball profile, as his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the top-30 percent of baseball and his average launch angle is a mere 1.2-degrees. 

Fleming has done all the things necessary to find success as a big-league pitcher despite not having overpowering stuff. His pitch location has been good and he has generated swings and misses on his changeup without having to throw it in the zone. The dipping action of the pitch has helped Fleming avoid contact in the air when is has been hit. His fantasy value is limited due to the lack of strikeouts, but he is currently rostered in just 25% of leagues. His ability to pitch relatively deep into games and to avoid damaging contact make him an interesting back-of-the-rotation starter in fantasy rotations in both points and roto leagues.

Changeup: Strong Break

All stats current as of Sunday, June 6.

Mike Minor, Kansas City Royals

Vertical Drop: 4.5 inches (-15%) less than average
Horizontal Break: 3.3 inches (23%) greater than average

This pitcher had been pretty consistent in his career prior to 2020 and has only rebounded partly to start the 2021 season. Mike Minor currently has a 4-3 record and a 4.84 ERA, but he has a serviceable 4.02 career ERA. He has one of baseball's harder breaking changeups and throws it a decent amount at 19.9%. Can Minor offer fantasy managers some upside for the rest of the season, and how could his changeup play a part in that?

The odd thing for Minor is that he has located all of his pitches pretty well this season, including his changeup. He has a solid 27% strikeout rate, which his location may contribute to. His changeup has been his best swing-and-miss pitch with a 13.4% swinging-strike rate. Its high spin rate (2,285 rotations per minute) generates the almost slider-like movement on the pitch. Further, he has an above-average batted-ball profile as well as expected stats. His 3.83 SIERA confirms that his batted-ball profile has been solid and that he has gotten unlucky given the discrepancy seen in his ERA.

Minor certainly does not have shiny surface numbers, so it makes sense that he is currently rostered in just 33 percent of fantasy leagues. However, his underlying numbers suggest that there may be some positive regression coming. He has maintained a strong strikeout rate thanks in part to his breaking changeup, and he has a solid batted-ball profile and above-average expected statistics. As such, I consider Minor to be a buy-low candidate that fantasy managers likely won't even have to trade for.

Changeup: Below-Average Drop and Break

All stats current as of Sunday, June 6.

Ian Anderson, Atlanta Braves

Vertical Drop: 4.1 inches (-15%) less than average
Horizontal Break: 2.8 inches (-21%) less than average

Our final pitcher had a solid 2020 season and is building on it this season. Ian Anderson is just 23 years old, but has pitched like an experienced veteran with a 3.64 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 26.1% strikeout rate. He uses a four-seam fastball, changeup, and curveball to find success, but his changeup is overall flat compared to the rest of the league. Can his changeup continue to be a useful weapon given its lack of movement?

To get to the point, all signs point to yes. Anderson's changeup and fastball spin direction are similar, both pitches have relatively low spin rates, and his changeup comes in at 87.9 MPH compared to his fastball at 94.7 MPH. Put all of that together and it makes for a deceptive combination, as Anderson essentially is throwing a pitch that looks like a slow fastball. The described deceptiveness combined with Anderson's strong pitch location on his changeup has led to an impressive 19.1% swinging-strike rate with the pitch.

Anderson seems like a promising pitching talent and has shown all the skills needed for continued success. He has a nice arsenal of fastball, changeup, and curveball and has done a great job utilizing his changeup even though it lacks movement. He is a great example of how pitchers can be deceptive without a huge sweeping or breaking pitch.

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